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May 19

Opinion Have emerging markets lost their mojo?

Emerging markets have never really been a wallflower in the world of capital market news. Even with this said, however, the past three years have been fairly extreme in terms of the range of events that have played out in the asset class, and the persistent and overwhelming (...)

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Burgers, beer and deflation fear: credit opportunities amid the chaos

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Post-Covid recovery packages must quicken the pace to net-zero carbon emissions

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February 2019

Opinion Lessons from a decade of bank bailouts

A decade on, banks in some major economies have largely recovered from the global financial crisis (GFC). In others, however, legacies of bad assets continue to clog the banking system, stalling the engine of economic growth. The reasons for this divergence lie largely in (...)

February 2019

Opinion Why the Fed will stop reducing its balance sheet in 2019

At last night’s FOMC, Jerome Powell explained that "the normalization of the size of the balance sheet would be completed sooner" and that the Fed would now "evaluate the appropriate timing for the end of balance sheet reduction”. We briefly explain why (...)

February 2019

Opinion MSCI: Five Key ESG Trends to Watch in 2019

MSCI ESG Research has issued its 2019 ESG Trends to Watch Report, which identifies five key ESG trends in 2019 and the potentially overlooked costs and opportunities underlying these themes...

February 2019

Opinion Low inflation : dry powder?

One way to look at low global inflation is as evidence of policy successes on the part of countries’ central banks — especially in Emerging Market (EM) countries, where inflation rates are often below their central bank (...)

January 2019

Opinion Goldilocks vs Armageddon: It’s time to buy EM

Look outside the US, Goldilocks scenario doesn’t hold anymore; EM back on the buy list: take advantage of the Armageddon panic; The Damocles swords of 2018 are slowly being pulled back

January 2019

Opinion Markets grapple with government dysfunction

While the UK and US contend with contentious political issues, the IMF has lowered its expectations for economic growth. The question is, “Where do we go from here?”

January 2019

Opinion Spotting the end of the economic cycle

It currently feels like we are at a critical juncture for economies and markets. 2019 is likely to be one of elevated uncertainty and more volatility as investors grapple with the question of whether this is the final phase of the economic cycle. Markets will behave (...)

January 2019

Opinion The difficult recomposition of the Executive Board of the ECB

On October 31, 2019, Mario Draghi’s term as President of the ECB will come to an end. Even though Mario Draghi’s personality has had a profound impact on the way the ECB communicates and therefore acts, it is important to point out that it is a small team within the ECB (...)

January 2019

Opinion A tale of two worlds: a robust business cycle in the US and a draining of liquidity in the rest of the world

After President Trump signed the ’Tax Cuts and Jobs Act’ into law on 22 December 2017, we expected corporate earnings growth to be strong in 2018. In fact, it has been far stronger, as the direct effect of the tax cut on corporate earnings was further magnified by the (...)

January 2019

Opinion Normalising economies may mean moderate returns

After 10 good years, the markets appear to be finally getting back to pre-crisis norms. Our analysis suggests that this normalisation may result in investment returns becoming much more modest than they have been over the years since the financial crisis, when (...)

January 2019

Opinion Accidental Americans Create Headache for French, European Banks

Boris Johnson, who was born in New York but left when he was five, found it outrageous that he was obliged to pay US taxes. The easy solution was to pay to renounce his US citizenship, which he did in 2016. Hundreds of other accidental Americans don’t have the luxury of such (...)

January 2019

Opinion A modern-day War of the Roses

A modern-day War of the Roses: Is a real winner possible in the US-China trade war? In an era of globalization, trade wars mean losses for all sides

January 2019

Opinion The Fed’s legacy will live on

The legacy of the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting promises to have lasting effects well into the new year. Once again, there were no surprises on the outcome for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) funds target following this (...)

December 2018

Opinion Brexit, Now What ?

Paul O’Connor, Head of Janus Henderson’s UK-based Multi-Asset Team, sifts through the highly complex range of Brexit scenarios following Theresa May’s survival as party leader.

December 2018

Opinion Rates going up...maybe not so fast

When examining the fixed income market outlook within the Euro zone, inevitably the discussion turns to Italy, and what the potential ramifications of this ongoing budget saga will be.

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Opinion Review of the chinese economy at the end of the summer of 2019

The monthly data published at the start of the second quarter are fairly mixed and show no tangible signs of growth momentum improving in China. The GDP published for the second quarter has recently confirmed this sentiment. The slowdown at work since the start of the decade (...)

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Opinion Impact of Covid-19: How did the nordic countries react?

The reaction to the virus outbreak was not one of denial at Nordic governments. The responses have been decisive, swift and wide to contain the first fall outs. Let’s take a firm look in the rear–mirror on what the Nordic countries looked like when the crises set (...)

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Opinion Accidental Americans Create Headache for French, European Banks

Boris Johnson, who was born in New York but left when he was five, found it outrageous that he was obliged to pay US taxes. The easy solution was to pay to renounce his US citizenship, which he did in 2016. Hundreds of other accidental Americans don’t have the luxury of such (...)

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Opinion What is “risk free” ?

Would it be conceivable that top-quality corporates can take over the baton of being the “risk free” investment of choice? Nestle default protection is cheaper than German sovereign protection and Wal-Mart default protection is cheaper than United States sovereign (...)

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Opinion Perspective and real solvency of banks

Can a universal bank go bankrupt ? An objective, rigorous and professional answer is built in three stages: credibility of the banks performed stress tests - assessment of prudential regulation to come - understanding the evolution of the banking business (...)

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Opinion Valuation multiples for the S&P 500 remain near historic highs.

When it comes to valuing shares, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is a bit like the baloney sandwich of equity valuation. Wall Street’s finest might all know about more elegant, sophisticated and nutritious alternatives.

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Opinion Are french OAT overvalued ?

According to John Gilbert, CIO of the Berkshire Hathaway’s subsidiary General Re-New England AM, French 10-year bonds should yield between 4.5% and 5%, closer to Italian and Spanish bonds rather than German ones. However, This opinion is not shared by the majority of the (...)

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Opinion On the uncertain future for money market funds

In the face of the low money market interest rates, returns offered by investments in money markets products have been declining steadily. While money market fund managers managed to turn in slightly positive performances in 2015, this could prove more daunting in (...)

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Opinion Is South Africa the Next Currency Crisis?

2018 has been marked by various emerging market crises. From Turkey to Argentina, confidence has eroded, resulting in bond and currency chaos. There is a growing focus on South Africa, and our analysis suggests that will (...)

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Opinion Hard time for sterling

According to Luc Luyet and Frederik Ducrozet, Asset Allocation & Macro Research, Pictet Wealth Management, the sharp drop of the sterling on Friday 7 October at the start of trading in Asia with the currency declining 6% in the course of twenty minutes was the climax of (...)

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Opinion Euro to gain reserve status and expand in the coming years

According to Michael Story, economist at Western Asset, while some peripheral European countries will be unable to escape restructuring their debt, the euro is unlikely to collapse any time soon as a result, and should in the short to medium term strengthen its position as a (...)

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Opinion How can Brexit impact HNWIs?

As Brexit’s uncertainty cascades to all aspects of the global economy, high net worth individuals (HNWIs) share with the nation a great deal of uncertainty, albeit of a slightly different variety.

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Opinion Overview of Quantitative Finance in France

A short review of quantitative finance in France under the lens of the Next Finance website: Profile of quants, origins and outlook of the industry.

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Opinion Anatomy of the European Banks Rout – AT1 bonds

European bank stocks have collapsed so far this year whilst their credit default swaps have risen rapidly. Surely the credit and equity markets are telling us something? – Europe’s nascent economic recovery is over? Negative rates are killing net interest margins? They don’t (...)

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Opinion Anatomy of a dollar rally

In the era of Central Bank policy influence, we have become used to large shifts in the performance and trends of different currencies across time. For the better part of the past two years, the currency headlines have been dominated by a weakening US (...)

Focus

Opinion Psychology and smart beta

‘Smart beta’ sounds like an oxymoron. How smart can it be to continue using the same strategy in such fickle markets? A portfolio manager calling on all his skills (‘alpha’) in analysing market environments (the source of ‘beta’) should be able to outperform an unchanged (...)

Focus

Mory Doré’s column

Mory Doré’s views on monetary policy, asset allocation, financial management of banks and understanding of crises

Éclairages Économiques Notebook

The association Éclairages Économiques share with us analysis mostly relying on current research on various economics issues

Selection: Prospects

Regulation Regulatory prospects: 2012 and beyond

2009 was a year of intense reflection on the functioning of the financial sector. There followed an intense regulatory activity in 2010, unfortunately with few formal adoptions of regulations. 2011 marked the surge of the will to succeed with provisional schedules. Where do (...)

Reading An Economic Approach to Marriage

Marriages are not always very stable. A divorce rate of 50 % in developed countries serves to prove. We ask ourselves if it is possible to form stable relationships. An economic analysis may be able to answer this (...)

Note Aging population poses new opportunities for global investment managers

Early conclusions from ongoing SimCorp StrategyLab research point to demographic changes as a key factor influencing the future of the global investment management industry.

Note Launch of green bonds

The term «Green Bonds» is more frequently used to describe a market that should mature very fast in order to deal with numerous requests for investments in the field of green infrastructure projects.

Last commented articles

FR Opinion Poisson d’avril sur les marchés
Read comments Update May 2019
FR Opinion Reprise des financières européennes
Read comments Update May 2019
FR Opinion Un bon sens partagé ?
Read comments Update March 2019
Opinion Accidental Americans Create Headache for French, European Banks
Read comments Update January 2019

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