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January 14

Opinion No alternative to equities

While political risk, a second Covid-19 wave, lower economic activity and suppressed inflation might trigger a short-term sell-off, in the medium term a high equity risk premium and low rates will support equities

Opinion

Democrat sweep to open fiscal floodgates and boost growth

Opinion

Disruption: Facing the future head-on

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November 2020

Opinion The US election: What it could mean for technology

Biden has to date said little on big tech and has no clear tech policy advisors; he has said in interviews he is more interested in content moderation than competition policy. However House Democrats have put forward a report advocating major changes to anti-trust laws (...)

November 2020

Opinion Central Banks: leading the path towards Impact Investing

According to Frédéric Samama, Chief Responsible Investment Officer at CPR AM, the fact that Central Banks are putting these issues on their agenda sends a signal that all corporates are increasingly evolving into an environment in which these themes are becoming (...)

November 2020

Opinion More Volatility, Questions About Stimulus

Talib Sheikh, Head of Strategy, Multi-Asset, comments on the implications of a too-close-to-call U.S. election, and what the clarity of a Trump or a Biden win might mean.

October 2020

Opinion Investing through the US election

It’s a mug’s game to try to predict the outcome of a US election, suffice to say, that at the time of writing, conviction is building among pollsters and investors that Biden has a large enough lead to secure a victory.

October 2020

Opinion When is ‘green’ really green?

Green corporate bonds are growing in popularity, but it can be tricky to figure out just how green these investments really are. How do you know when ‘green’ is really green and not just a catchy name of the bond?

October 2020

Opinion Welcome to a new high yield universe

The prevalence of ‘fallen angels’ has changed the composition of the European HY market. So how might we go about navigating it? Analysis by Angelina Chueh, Senior Client Portfolio Manager at Columbia Threadneedle (...)

October 2020

Opinion Pandemic poised to accelerate underlying trends

We now have a two-speed economy, and much talk about a disconnect between stock market and economy. But this won’t change our research and stock picking focus

October 2020

Opinion Tech innovation: reaching all sectors Companies across a range of industries are deploying innovative technologies to spark rapid growth, creating attractive investment opportunities

When China’s leading telecoms operators launched their 5G data plans on 1 November, they were two months ahead of schedule in going live with one of the world’s biggest next-generation networks, demonstrating the pace of digital evolution in Asia’s largest (...)

September 2020

Opinion Tech roars up: can markets follow?

From a more fundamental perspective, as mentioned in past updates, we are convinced that technology adoption (be it automation, cloud migration or less straightforward technology trends, such as AI, big data, machine learning..) still has a long way to go in a multitude of (...)

September 2020

Opinion Weaker Alpha potential in EM Debt after the rally…temporarily

The market crash that began in March sent the spread of EM debt (for the hard currency aggregate) to nearly 700 bps. It is now only 30 bps away from the pre-crisis level. This spread tightening reflects the ongoing economic recovery EM countries. Trends in Covid-19 are (...)

September 2020

Opinion German Government to introduce concept of Green Twin Bonds

After the Netherlands and Sweden, Germany has become the third AAA-rated country to issue a green government bond. The German government also announced its commitment to building a full green yield curve, next to its conventional yield (...)

August 2020

Opinion European financials: reaching an inflection point

Despite a challenging first half of the year, Atlanticomnium’s Romain Miginiac says European banks and insurers have shown resilience and balance sheets remain rock solid. Meanwhile, pressure on the sector is gradually (...)

August 2020

Opinion “Same wine, different bottle” – What next for Japan

Despite the resulting intraday market moves, Abe’s resignation should not come as a shock. He is a long-tenured PM with a history of ill health, and rumours of his departure had been circulating. However, the timing – in the middle of a global pandemic and its attendant (...)

July 2020

Opinion Guy de Blonay H2 outlook

Global equities had their best quarter since 1998 in Q2 and started Q3 on a positive note. Markets could be choppier during summer, as valuations are rich in some leading sectors, seasonal liquidity is lower and many sources of risks (...)

July 2020

Opinion Moving past the edge of reason, China government sanctionned rally

The situation is excellent. The market is rallying led by a government sanctioned rally in China. Our constructive thesis is validated after a period of noise in the equity market led by a US spike in Covid-19 cases. This is excellent and precisely why we need to (...)

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Opinion Review of the chinese economy at the end of the summer of 2019

The monthly data published at the start of the second quarter are fairly mixed and show no tangible signs of growth momentum improving in China. The GDP published for the second quarter has recently confirmed this sentiment. The slowdown at work since the start of the decade (...)

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Opinion Valuation multiples for the S&P 500 remain near historic highs.

When it comes to valuing shares, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is a bit like the baloney sandwich of equity valuation. Wall Street’s finest might all know about more elegant, sophisticated and nutritious alternatives.

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Opinion Protecting against Protectionism : Why is deglobalisation gaining momentum and what should investors do about it?

The headwinds to globalisation are more structural than cyclical, which means those in favour of open markets have a serious challenge to overcome.

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Opinion Mathematical models in finance and embedded risk underestimation

The statistical assumption of normal (log-normal) distribution of stock returns (prices) is not that strong and tail events’ occurrence is largely undervalued. Nevertheless, this modeling framework has been widely used for strong (...)

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Opinion Central Banks : the global financial system trashcans ?

Institutionalized monetization condemns central banks to become the international financial system trashcans and, despite German opposition, it is likely to be the same for the ECB.

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Opinion Perspective and real solvency of banks

Can a universal bank go bankrupt ? An objective, rigorous and professional answer is built in three stages: credibility of the banks performed stress tests - assessment of prudential regulation to come - understanding the evolution of the banking business (...)

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Opinion Again and again the bank stress tests

Certainly it never ceases to write about the bank stress tests since it keeps getting more into banks; if proof were needed of the total lack of credibility of those made up to now

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Opinion Financial correlations and loss of common sense

Isn’t correlation in finance charlatanry? We analyze this question through 4 situations that have been observed on financial markets with final investors, asset managers and proprietary traders.

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Opinion The Euro will survive In fine !

We do not believe or at least most of the implosion scenarios of the euro zone regardless of the terms. -Not because we would be trying to find one or several sustainable solutions to the crisis of sovereign debt, but because such a process would cost too much to everybody (...)

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Opinion The case for Japanese equities

We see further strength in Japanese equities after their recent rally, given an encouraging earnings outlook, relatively low valuations and a stable yen under Japan’s ultra-easy monetary policy.

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Opinion Accidental Americans Create Headache for French, European Banks

Boris Johnson, who was born in New York but left when he was five, found it outrageous that he was obliged to pay US taxes. The easy solution was to pay to renounce his US citizenship, which he did in 2016. Hundreds of other accidental Americans don’t have the luxury of such (...)

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Opinion « Commodities and emerging markets: must-have investments or speculative bubbles »

Now that growth is back, emerging countries are in favour with many investors. Economic growth in these zones means commodities can also be profitable investments...

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Opinion How can Brexit impact HNWIs?

As Brexit’s uncertainty cascades to all aspects of the global economy, high net worth individuals (HNWIs) share with the nation a great deal of uncertainty, albeit of a slightly different variety.

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Opinion To predict or to adapt?

According to Fabrice Foy, Quantitative Analyst at CCR-AM, we should do the exact opposite of the classical theory: the stock price does not reflect fundamentals, and if it deviates from its fundamental value, it does not necessarily tend to revert (...)

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Opinion Growth/inflation mix in deteriorating mood

Last week, equity performance resulted mixed after major indices tested a technical support and after US put/call volatility spiked up, testifying a short term surge in risk aversion. The MSCI World index’s total return fell by 0.6% (S&P 500 -1.4%) but the EMU index (...)

Focus

Opinion Psychology and smart beta

‘Smart beta’ sounds like an oxymoron. How smart can it be to continue using the same strategy in such fickle markets? A portfolio manager calling on all his skills (‘alpha’) in analysing market environments (the source of ‘beta’) should be able to outperform an unchanged (...)

Focus

Mory Doré’s column

Mory Doré’s views on monetary policy, asset allocation, financial management of banks and understanding of crises

Éclairages Économiques Notebook

The association Éclairages Économiques share with us analysis mostly relying on current research on various economics issues

Selection: Prospects

Regulation Regulatory prospects: 2012 and beyond

2009 was a year of intense reflection on the functioning of the financial sector. There followed an intense regulatory activity in 2010, unfortunately with few formal adoptions of regulations. 2011 marked the surge of the will to succeed with provisional schedules. Where do (...)

Reading An Economic Approach to Marriage

Marriages are not always very stable. A divorce rate of 50 % in developed countries serves to prove. We ask ourselves if it is possible to form stable relationships. An economic analysis may be able to answer this (...)

Note Aging population poses new opportunities for global investment managers

Early conclusions from ongoing SimCorp StrategyLab research point to demographic changes as a key factor influencing the future of the global investment management industry.

Note Launch of green bonds

The term «Green Bonds» is more frequently used to describe a market that should mature very fast in order to deal with numerous requests for investments in the field of green infrastructure projects.

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