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January 28

Opinion Why 2020 will be the year Europe’s pension schemes engage with ESG

Pension schemes have struggled to get to grips with environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues. However, 2020 is likely to be the year when the growing pressure from regulators to address these issues becomes an (...)

Opinion

The year of the rat: China’s Economy is strong but investors need to be on their guard

Opinion

Why investors should be optimistic about Japan

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December 2019

Opinion Beneath the headlines: three stories that might surprise investors in 2020

Over the past twelve months, the US/China trade dispute has dominated headlines and commanded a considerable slice of the world’s attention. Yet, while any breakthrough would be significant for investors and positive for sentiment in Emerging Markets (EM), we think there are (...)

December 2019

Opinion Christine Lagarde already wants to change everything at the ECB

Christine Lagarde gave the outline of the strategic review that the ECB will carry out throughout the year 2020, starting in January. The ECB could therefore undergo profound changes under Christine Lagarde, especially with an increased consideration of the mega trends (...)

December 2019

Opinion We will always have scone and jam

The Daily Telegraph trumpets a landslide Conservative victory after the best results since 1987. With neither party popular, it is a testament to the appeal of the Labour Party. The Remainer vote is now fatally weakened. The consequence is that the hard-left firebrand, (...)

December 2019

Opinion 2020 – the year of excitement?

We are threatened with excitement in 2020, from civil unrest and ongoing trade wars to political upheaval and market volatility. We believe global economic expansion will continue at a slower, less even pace across (...)

December 2019

Opinion Headlines that might surprise investors in 2020

The outlook for the UK stock market remains incredibly foggy in the run-up to this year’s general election. Most global investors continue to regard the UK as an uninvestible market, as they have since the EU referendum in (...)

November 2019

Opinion Are Private Equity Blowouts Good for Stock Investors?

There’s growing evidence that private equity markets are beginning to overheat after several high-profile IPO flops. Investors in stocks should pay attention because private funding troubles are also a very public market (...)

October 2019

Opinion Is Turkey’s recovery threatened by its Syrian incursion?

Until just a week ago, Turkey (against all the odds) seemed to be doing well again, said Reza Karim, assistant fund manager, Fixed Income. Inflation had come down from 25% last year to 9%. The central bank had managed to cut rates by 750bps, which restarted the debt-fuelled (...)

October 2019

Opinion The art of the deal

The UK takes a big step towards Brexit, with today’s key announcement. Parliamentary ratification is the next major hurdle to clear. With the DUP reportedly uncomfortable with the deal, the parliamentary arithmetic for Saturday’s vote is very hard to (...)

September 2019

Opinion Is the Eurozone headed for two decades of japanstyle slow growth?

Despite it being more than 10 years since the global financial crisis (GFC), the world remains heavily indebted and there is no realistic prospect of that debt reducing in the short or medium term. Barring glaring historical exceptions, sovereign debt levels in many (...)

September 2019

Opinion German fiscal stimulus, can we believe it?

It appears that a German fiscal stimulus is not imminent and that these effects would take time to materialize. Maintaining a budget surplus target while the Eurosystem will start buying German bonds again from November will maintain downward pressure on German long-term (...)

September 2019

Opinion Treading a more tenuous path

The duration rally over the month of August was eye-watering. The whole German sovereign bond curve, out to 30 years, now trades with a negative yield, with half the European investment grade bond universe also yielding below (...)

September 2019

Opinion Draghi’s leaving message for euro area banks: learn to live with negative rates

The ECB’s new stimulus package adds to top-line challenges for European banks though the measures should support loan quality and asset valuations, says Scope Ratings.

September 2019

Opinion Review of the chinese economy at the end of the summer of 2019

The monthly data published at the start of the second quarter are fairly mixed and show no tangible signs of growth momentum improving in China. The GDP published for the second quarter has recently confirmed this sentiment. The slowdown at work since the start of the decade (...)

July 2019

Opinion Europe’s overlooked technology sector is thriving

While Europe’s fragmentation has hindered development of a mass-market giant to rival those from the US and China, its distinctive technology businesses are competing successfully in global markets.

July 2019

Opinion Climate disasters are more and more frequent in the United States

According to the European Space Agency, never a month of June had been as hot on the surface of the Earth as in 2019. It is now clear that climate disasters have intensified in recent years. This has been clear in the United States in recent (...)

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Opinion Review of the chinese economy at the end of the summer of 2019

The monthly data published at the start of the second quarter are fairly mixed and show no tangible signs of growth momentum improving in China. The GDP published for the second quarter has recently confirmed this sentiment. The slowdown at work since the start of the decade (...)

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Opinion Steel Tariffs from Trump to tighten metal supply from China

The steel and aluminium tariffs instated by President Trump should tighten the supply of metal coming from China. As a serial overproducer, cutback from China will be welcome news and could even increase prices; China is already trying to reduce capacity in steel and (...)

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Opinion For Evli, Nordic corporate bonds offer an attractive risk-return profile

The Finish independent asset manager Evli remains very positive on Nordic corporate bonds risk-return profile. With a strong experience on this market, Evli offers to highlight through this news flash the characteristics and the quality of this fixed income (...)

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Opinion Why the Fed will stop reducing its balance sheet in 2019

At last night’s FOMC, Jerome Powell explained that "the normalization of the size of the balance sheet would be completed sooner" and that the Fed would now "evaluate the appropriate timing for the end of balance sheet reduction”. We briefly explain why (...)

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Opinion MSCI: Five Key ESG Trends to Watch in 2019

MSCI ESG Research has issued its 2019 ESG Trends to Watch Report, which identifies five key ESG trends in 2019 and the potentially overlooked costs and opportunities underlying these themes...

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Opinion Accidental Americans Create Headache for French, European Banks

Boris Johnson, who was born in New York but left when he was five, found it outrageous that he was obliged to pay US taxes. The easy solution was to pay to renounce his US citizenship, which he did in 2016. Hundreds of other accidental Americans don’t have the luxury of such (...)

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Opinion The Australian housing bubble is close to popping

Tighter lending standards in Australia placed huge pressure on the housing market in 2018 and the country now faces its worst property downturn for 35 years. Ariel Bezalel, Head of Strategy, Fixed Income, explains why the dynamics behind the housing slump are key to his (...)

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Opinion The «French Quants» must relearn to code!

In France, many financial engineers feel some aversion for IT. Some, fascinated by models, don’t consider for a second writing thousands of lines of code…

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Opinion Fair trade, angel or demon ?

As citizens movements connect politically and economically, fair trade talks about itself. A fair and equitable trade, what is more decent in appearance ? But in order to determine the fair part of trade, we need beforehand to determine what we mean by this (...)

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Opinion German fiscal stimulus, can we believe it?

It appears that a German fiscal stimulus is not imminent and that these effects would take time to materialize. Maintaining a budget surplus target while the Eurosystem will start buying German bonds again from November will maintain downward pressure on German long-term (...)

Logo

Opinion Beneath the headlines: three stories that might surprise investors in 2020

Over the past twelve months, the US/China trade dispute has dominated headlines and commanded a considerable slice of the world’s attention. Yet, while any breakthrough would be significant for investors and positive for sentiment in Emerging Markets (EM), we think there are (...)

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Opinion Is there Corporate Life after the Euro

Several opinion leaders have started a public debate regarding the possibility to breakup the Euro and return to the former local currencies. In light of this debate, we look at the possible implications of this break-up scenario for companies active on the Euro capital (...)

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Opinion We will always have scone and jam

The Daily Telegraph trumpets a landslide Conservative victory after the best results since 1987. With neither party popular, it is a testament to the appeal of the Labour Party. The Remainer vote is now fatally weakened. The consequence is that the hard-left firebrand, (...)

Logo

Opinion Christine Lagarde already wants to change everything at the ECB

Christine Lagarde gave the outline of the strategic review that the ECB will carry out throughout the year 2020, starting in January. The ECB could therefore undergo profound changes under Christine Lagarde, especially with an increased consideration of the mega trends (...)

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Opinion Unresolved ESG issues persist in Canadian oil sands industry

During a recent visit to Canada, for the annual UN PRI signatory conference, I took the opportunity together with a few other investors to visit the oil sands operations in the Alberta region. What I heard and saw there made me realise that the Canadian oil sands industry (...)

Focus

Opinion Psychology and smart beta

‘Smart beta’ sounds like an oxymoron. How smart can it be to continue using the same strategy in such fickle markets? A portfolio manager calling on all his skills (‘alpha’) in analysing market environments (the source of ‘beta’) should be able to outperform an unchanged (...)

Focus

Mory Doré’s column

Mory Doré’s views on monetary policy, asset allocation, financial management of banks and understanding of crises

Éclairages Économiques Notebook

The association Éclairages Économiques share with us analysis mostly relying on current research on various economics issues

Selection: Prospects

Regulation Regulatory prospects: 2012 and beyond

2009 was a year of intense reflection on the functioning of the financial sector. There followed an intense regulatory activity in 2010, unfortunately with few formal adoptions of regulations. 2011 marked the surge of the will to succeed with provisional schedules. Where do (...)

Reading An Economic Approach to Marriage

Marriages are not always very stable. A divorce rate of 50 % in developed countries serves to prove. We ask ourselves if it is possible to form stable relationships. An economic analysis may be able to answer this (...)

Note Aging population poses new opportunities for global investment managers

Early conclusions from ongoing SimCorp StrategyLab research point to demographic changes as a key factor influencing the future of the global investment management industry.

Note Launch of green bonds

The term «Green Bonds» is more frequently used to describe a market that should mature very fast in order to deal with numerous requests for investments in the field of green infrastructure projects.

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