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October 15

Opinion Pandemic poised to accelerate underlying trends

We now have a two-speed economy, and much talk about a disconnect between stock market and economy. But this won’t change our research and stock picking focus

Opinion

Tech innovation: reaching all sectors Companies across a range of industries are deploying innovative technologies to spark rapid growth, creating attractive investment opportunities

Opinion

Tech roars up: can markets follow?

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September 28

Opinion Weaker Alpha potential in EM Debt after the rally…temporarily

The market crash that began in March sent the spread of EM debt (for the hard currency aggregate) to nearly 700 bps. It is now only 30 bps away from the pre-crisis level. This spread tightening reflects the ongoing economic recovery EM countries. Trends in Covid-19 are (...)

September 8

Opinion German Government to introduce concept of Green Twin Bonds

After the Netherlands and Sweden, Germany has become the third AAA-rated country to issue a green government bond. The German government also announced its commitment to building a full green yield curve, next to its conventional yield (...)

August 31

Opinion European financials: reaching an inflection point

Despite a challenging first half of the year, Atlanticomnium’s Romain Miginiac says European banks and insurers have shown resilience and balance sheets remain rock solid. Meanwhile, pressure on the sector is gradually (...)

August 31

Opinion “Same wine, different bottle” – What next for Japan

Despite the resulting intraday market moves, Abe’s resignation should not come as a shock. He is a long-tenured PM with a history of ill health, and rumours of his departure had been circulating. However, the timing – in the middle of a global pandemic and its attendant (...)

July 27

Opinion Guy de Blonay H2 outlook

Global equities had their best quarter since 1998 in Q2 and started Q3 on a positive note. Markets could be choppier during summer, as valuations are rich in some leading sectors, seasonal liquidity is lower and many sources of risks (...)

July 7

Opinion Moving past the edge of reason, China government sanctionned rally

The situation is excellent. The market is rallying led by a government sanctioned rally in China. Our constructive thesis is validated after a period of noise in the equity market led by a US spike in Covid-19 cases. This is excellent and precisely why we need to (...)

June 18

Opinion Covid-19 likely a catalyst for more cashless transactions

The lockdowns implemented in the wake of the pandemic have had profound implications on the way people live. One of them in the payment sector has been a surge in e-commerce activity. More importantly perhaps, Covid-19 is blurring the lines between e-commerce and traditional (...)

June 8

Opinion COVID 19: The trade-off between staying safe and getting back to work

An economy in lockdown has significant effects for investors in real assets. In this data illustration, our real assets research team consider the benefit of businesses returning to their usual locations against the risks of doing (...)

May 28

Opinion 10 Factors that could change economies and markets forever

The Covid-19 crisis has challenged individuals, families, companies, governments and investment markets around the world. It is an experience that could fundamentally reshape consumer and corporate behaviour as well as financial markets. With that in mind, here are the 10 (...)

May 19

Opinion Have emerging markets lost their mojo?

Emerging markets have never really been a wallflower in the world of capital market news. Even with this said, however, the past three years have been fairly extreme in terms of the range of events that have played out in the asset class, and the persistent and overwhelming (...)

May 18

Opinion Burgers, beer and deflation fear: credit opportunities amid the chaos

Ariel Bezalel, Head of Strategy, and Harry Richards, Fund Manager, explain where they have been snapping up credit opportunities, while remaining alert to the risks often concealed in bear market rallies.

May 12

Opinion Post-Covid recovery packages must quicken the pace to net-zero carbon emissions

Government recovery plans must lay the foundations for an irreversible shift to a resilient, net-zero and inclusive world economy.

May 4

Opinion Impact of Covid-19: How did the nordic countries react?

The reaction to the virus outbreak was not one of denial at Nordic governments. The responses have been decisive, swift and wide to contain the first fall outs. Let’s take a firm look in the rear–mirror on what the Nordic countries looked like when the crises set (...)

May 4

Opinion Coronavirus: research, research, research…

In terms of data, the impact of the economic freeze is seen first on jobs; unemployment will rise dramatically, with the peak expected in the second quarter numbers. GDP contraction will follow – for example, the recent eurozone PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) was very weak (...)

April 22

Opinion The oil has gone into negative territory

Yesterday was a historical day in the oil market. The American market, called West Texas Intermediate (WTI), moved to minus USD40—a fantastic move. The reason for this is likely connected to storage issues as people are consuming far less fuel amid the (...)

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Opinion Review of the chinese economy at the end of the summer of 2019

The monthly data published at the start of the second quarter are fairly mixed and show no tangible signs of growth momentum improving in China. The GDP published for the second quarter has recently confirmed this sentiment. The slowdown at work since the start of the decade (...)

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Opinion Impact of Covid-19: How did the nordic countries react?

The reaction to the virus outbreak was not one of denial at Nordic governments. The responses have been decisive, swift and wide to contain the first fall outs. Let’s take a firm look in the rear–mirror on what the Nordic countries looked like when the crises set (...)

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Opinion Weaker Alpha potential in EM Debt after the rally…temporarily

The market crash that began in March sent the spread of EM debt (for the hard currency aggregate) to nearly 700 bps. It is now only 30 bps away from the pre-crisis level. This spread tightening reflects the ongoing economic recovery EM countries. Trends in Covid-19 are (...)

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Opinion What is “risk free” ?

Would it be conceivable that top-quality corporates can take over the baton of being the “risk free” investment of choice? Nestle default protection is cheaper than German sovereign protection and Wal-Mart default protection is cheaper than United States sovereign (...)

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Opinion Valuation multiples for the S&P 500 remain near historic highs.

When it comes to valuing shares, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is a bit like the baloney sandwich of equity valuation. Wall Street’s finest might all know about more elegant, sophisticated and nutritious alternatives.

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Opinion Mathematical models in finance and embedded risk underestimation

The statistical assumption of normal (log-normal) distribution of stock returns (prices) is not that strong and tail events’ occurrence is largely undervalued. Nevertheless, this modeling framework has been widely used for strong (...)

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Opinion Accidental Americans Create Headache for French, European Banks

Boris Johnson, who was born in New York but left when he was five, found it outrageous that he was obliged to pay US taxes. The easy solution was to pay to renounce his US citizenship, which he did in 2016. Hundreds of other accidental Americans don’t have the luxury of such (...)

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Opinion Moving past the edge of reason, China government sanctionned rally

The situation is excellent. The market is rallying led by a government sanctioned rally in China. Our constructive thesis is validated after a period of noise in the equity market led by a US spike in Covid-19 cases. This is excellent and precisely why we need to (...)

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Opinion Perspective and real solvency of banks

Can a universal bank go bankrupt ? An objective, rigorous and professional answer is built in three stages: credibility of the banks performed stress tests - assessment of prudential regulation to come - understanding the evolution of the banking business (...)

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Opinion The Euro will survive, but not the current Euro zone !

If the existence of the euro is not challenged, it is the case of the euro zone in its current configuration. In the same way that cohabitation between countries with maintaining parity exchange had become impossible in the EMS, cohabitation has become impossible within (...)

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Opinion Overview of Quantitative Finance in France

A short review of quantitative finance in France under the lens of the Next Finance website: Profile of quants, origins and outlook of the industry.

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Opinion Combining Active and Passive management in a Portfolio

In recent years, long-held ideas on portfolio construction have been called into question. Investors can now choose from a range of “smart beta” strategies, offering exposure to market risk premia in a systematic, transparent fashion. Where does the dividing line between (...)

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Opinion Reviewing the bank stress tests – July 2011

As was seen during the stress tests carried out in July 2010, the latest ones published by the European Banking Authority on the 15th of July 2011 do not include a proper measure of market systemic risk. This hinders their (...)

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Opinion Are french OAT overvalued ?

According to John Gilbert, CIO of the Berkshire Hathaway’s subsidiary General Re-New England AM, French 10-year bonds should yield between 4.5% and 5%, closer to Italian and Spanish bonds rather than German ones. However, This opinion is not shared by the majority of the (...)

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Opinion Fair trade, angel or demon ?

As citizens movements connect politically and economically, fair trade talks about itself. A fair and equitable trade, what is more decent in appearance ? But in order to determine the fair part of trade, we need beforehand to determine what we mean by this (...)

Focus

Opinion Psychology and smart beta

‘Smart beta’ sounds like an oxymoron. How smart can it be to continue using the same strategy in such fickle markets? A portfolio manager calling on all his skills (‘alpha’) in analysing market environments (the source of ‘beta’) should be able to outperform an unchanged (...)

Focus

Mory Doré’s column

Mory Doré’s views on monetary policy, asset allocation, financial management of banks and understanding of crises

Éclairages Économiques Notebook

The association Éclairages Économiques share with us analysis mostly relying on current research on various economics issues

Selection: Prospects

Regulation Regulatory prospects: 2012 and beyond

2009 was a year of intense reflection on the functioning of the financial sector. There followed an intense regulatory activity in 2010, unfortunately with few formal adoptions of regulations. 2011 marked the surge of the will to succeed with provisional schedules. Where do (...)

Reading An Economic Approach to Marriage

Marriages are not always very stable. A divorce rate of 50 % in developed countries serves to prove. We ask ourselves if it is possible to form stable relationships. An economic analysis may be able to answer this (...)

Note Aging population poses new opportunities for global investment managers

Early conclusions from ongoing SimCorp StrategyLab research point to demographic changes as a key factor influencing the future of the global investment management industry.

Note Launch of green bonds

The term «Green Bonds» is more frequently used to describe a market that should mature very fast in order to deal with numerous requests for investments in the field of green infrastructure projects.

Last commented articles

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FR Opinion Un bon sens partagé ?
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Opinion Accidental Americans Create Headache for French, European Banks
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