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September 19

Opinion Escaping Lehman’s shadow

Financial markets have staged a remarkable recovery since the fall of Lehman Brothers, but it’s been a joyless affair,” says Vice Chairman Edward Bonham Carter. “The ending of central bank support, both feared and wanted, hangs like a sword of Damocles over the (...)

Opinion

Is South Africa the Next Currency Crisis?

Opinion

Lehman: 10 Years After

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September 4

Opinion Getting to the Truth on Trade, and Yes, Ricardo Can Still Rest In Peace

Trade volumes, trade agreements, and tariffs have been the focus of capital markets over the last year. Capital markets have taken the existing unencumbered trade regime as a given, and priced in the continuation of the existing order of ever-expanding trade and lower (...)

September 3

Opinion Greece: the end of bailout program

The end of the Greek bailout program on Aug 20 bears both virtues and risks. While the country is regaining some fiscal room of manoeuvre, there is no longer any additional precautionary funding scheme in place, which means Greece is now reliant on financial market funding (...)

August 22

Opinion After the fall

Emerging market bonds have suffered in recent months, but according to Alain-Nsiona Defise, Head of Emerging Corporates, Mary-Therese Barton, Head of Emerging Market Debt at Pictet Asset Management, fears of a renewed currency and debt crunch are (...)

July 25

Opinion What alikely NXP-Qcomdeal break means for merger arbitrage

Market conditions have been supportive since early July, but the flattening of the Treasury curve raises questions about the probability of a U.S. recession next year. Fund manager surveys suggest investors have erred on the side of caution (...)

July 16

Opinion US fixed income: Buying opportunity or a falling knife?

10 year US Treasury yields crossed the psychologically important 3% threshold in the 2nd quarter, the highest level in four years - buying opportunity or a falling knife? Given these critical levels and an uptick in US inflation, investors are justifiably worried about (...)

June 18

Opinion ECB: Bold is beautiful

President Mario Draghi took a bold stance at the ECB press conference on Thursday. Not only did Draghi announce the timeframe for ending the asset purchase programme in 2018 but he also provided forward guidance on the unlikelihood of an interest rate hike until the summer (...)

June 14

Opinion Polarisation in the luxury space

GAM’s Scilla Huang Sun evaluates some interesting trends in the luxury market and explains why this is a sector in which active management can add considerable value

June 14

Opinion Fed and ECB to stick to exit plans

Following a sharp spike in risk premia in late May on uncertainties about new elections in Italy, markets mildly recovered from their state of emergency.

June 12

Opinion Reform is the secret of India’s growth

Since assuming office in 2014, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has put in place a raft of reform measures aimed at strengthening the nation’s infrastructure and economic fundamentals.

June 12

Opinion Investing in Japan? Look beyond the trade war rhetoric

The U.S. and China are edging ever closer to a full-blown trade war, but it won’t just be the two superpowers affected. With its equity markets highly correlated to global growth, many view Japan as a potential casualty of the ongoing (...)

June 11

Opinion Macro Managers are scratching their heads just like you

Europe took center stage this week, with further developments in the Italian political saga reminding investors that there are still powerful Eurosceptic forces at play and forcing investors to end their hopes of meaningful eurozone reforms. However, fading prospects of (...)

June 4

Opinion Back to inflation: The inflation theme enjoys a more favourable momentum in the euro zone

The first estimates of May’s figures show very clearly that overall inflation has accelerated after several months of stability, proof that the ECB’s accommodating policy is being efficient. The analysis of Thomas Page-Lecuyer, Senior investment specialist at CPR (...)

June 4

Opinion Political uncertainty weighs on Italy

Italy’s struggle to form a government and the threat of a new election have caused bond spreads to widen, signaling market concerns. Despite Italian bonds recovering, volatility is running high and investors need to ask whether there will be a contagion impact across Europe (...)

May 29

Opinion Anatomy of a dollar rally

In the era of Central Bank policy influence, we have become used to large shifts in the performance and trends of different currencies across time. For the better part of the past two years, the currency headlines have been dominated by a weakening US (...)

May 15

Opinion Italian populist parties close to a deal

Last week, equity markets kept moving higher, while the US yield curve continued to flatten. The 2-10 and 10-30 differentials reached the lowest level since August 2007. President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran’s nuclear deal pushed oil prices at the highest level (...)

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Opinion What would happen in case of Grexit?

According to William Davies, Head of global equities at Threadneedle Investments if Greece leaves the euro, contagion will be feared, the volatility of a currency under threat will resurface, and we revisit the throes of the euro crisis we endured a few years back. Not our (...)

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Opinion There is scope for a deal on Greek debt

The Greek government and its creditors have strong incentives to reach an agreement – and have scope to find a mutually beneficial solutions. Negotiations will be difficult - temporary setbacks could cause bouts of market volatility over the next few months, but these may (...)

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Opinion Greece: referendum reaction

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras won a resounding mandate to reject the package of austerity measures on the table in Greece’s referendum yesterday. This is but the latest twist in a road that increasingly seems to be leading towards Greece’s departure from the (...)

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Opinion The World eyes Europe

Headlines in Europe are again focused on weak economic growth but there remain many companies well placed to deliver. Analysis of Nick Sheridan, Fund manager Henderson Horizon Euroland.

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Opinion Brexit : While a “leave” vote is likely to cause a quick sell-off in risk assets, the more important market implications would play out over a much longer time frame.

According to David Lafferty, Chief Market Strategist, Natixis Global Asset Management, event risks that are accurately, or close to accurately, priced are difficult to hedge on the fly...

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Opinion Don’t cry for Argentina

In accordance with the Right Upon Future Offers or RUFO clause (similar to a conventional clause requiring creditors to be treated pari passu) contained in the 2005 agreement on the restructuring of the debt of the exchange bondholders (preventing Argentina from making more (...)

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Opinion The European Credit Strategist: The year that QE failed?

According to BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research report, Month-to-date, investment-grade cash bond spreads are 21bp wider and high-yield cash bond spreads are 73bp wider. September is shaping up to be the worst month of the year for performance, and the year-to-date picture (...)

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Opinion Europe – The darkest hour is just before the dawn

The European Central Bank (ECB) is embarking on quantitative easing (QE) at a time when tailwinds are already beginning to build behind the euro area economy. Threadneedle Investments’ fixed income fund manager Martin Harvey asks if we can dare to dream of a brighter (...)

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Opinion The Greek crisis takes a new turn

According to Mark Burgess, Chief Investment Officer EMOA and Head of Equity market at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, the European earnings outlook does not look immediately compromised by events in Greece, although this will depend upon the impact on consumer and (...)

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Opinion 2017 outlook: China equities

Charlie Awdry, China portfolio manager, shares his views on the prospects for Chinese stocks in 2017. He believes the focus on high quality growth companies exposed to long-term consumer trends and cyclical value stocks places his portfolios in good stead to deliver (...)

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Opinion What does Brexit mean to Property Investors & Developers?

Initial shock at the prospect of leaving the EU sent the markets into decline, but have they not reacted pretty much as anticipated? Never letting a crisis go without opportunity, selling high to force a low, and then buy back? An analysis from Rick Nicholls, Managing (...)

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Opinion Euro MMFs Are Prepared for Lower Market Yields

Euro-denominated money market funds have already taken investment and operational measures to prepare for yields declining or even turning negative, should short-term money market rates shift in that direction following the European Central Bank’s decision to cut the rate on (...)

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Opinion Inflation in developed economies is on the rise

Inflation in developed economies is on the rise. Central banks and markets are currently relaxed about the upswing but this will change if economic growth revives from its recent mediocre pace.

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Opinion The standoff between Greece and its partners is clearly softening

According to Eric Chaney Head of Research at AXA Investment Managers, this will not be the end of the Greek saga, since funding will remain quite challenging until the last tranche of the bailout is disbursed and the interest payments on the bonds held by the ECB are paid to (...)

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Opinion Brexit illustrates the diversification benefits of trend-following strategies

During the Brexit, the average CTA did very well: the SG Trend Index, a performance indicator for trend-following strategies, jumped 2.9% on 24 June. Trend-following strategies outperformed both equities, with the MSCI World Index dropping 4.9%, and hedge funds in general, (...)

Focus

Opinion Psychology and smart beta

‘Smart beta’ sounds like an oxymoron. How smart can it be to continue using the same strategy in such fickle markets? A portfolio manager calling on all his skills (‘alpha’) in analysing market environments (the source of ‘beta’) should be able to outperform an unchanged (...)

Focus

Mory Doré’s column

Mory Doré’s views on monetary policy, asset allocation, financial management of banks and understanding of crises

Éclairages Économiques Notebook

The association Éclairages Économiques share with us analysis mostly relying on current research on various economics issues

Selection: Prospects

Regulation Regulatory prospects: 2012 and beyond

2009 was a year of intense reflection on the functioning of the financial sector. There followed an intense regulatory activity in 2010, unfortunately with few formal adoptions of regulations. 2011 marked the surge of the will to succeed with provisional schedules. Where do (...)

Reading An Economic Approach to Marriage

Marriages are not always very stable. A divorce rate of 50 % in developed countries serves to prove. We ask ourselves if it is possible to form stable relationships. An economic analysis may be able to answer this (...)

Note Aging population poses new opportunities for global investment managers

Early conclusions from ongoing SimCorp StrategyLab research point to demographic changes as a key factor influencing the future of the global investment management industry.

Note Launch of green bonds

The term «Green Bonds» is more frequently used to describe a market that should mature very fast in order to deal with numerous requests for investments in the field of green infrastructure projects.

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