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May 15

Opinion Italian populist parties close to a deal

Last week, equity markets kept moving higher, while the US yield curve continued to flatten. The 2-10 and 10-30 differentials reached the lowest level since August 2007. President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran’s nuclear deal pushed oil prices at the highest level (...)

Opinion

Pakistan: Balancing risks and rewards

Opinion

US yields break 3% threshold for the first time in four years

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April 19

Opinion Debt, Tech and Trade Wars Cloud the Investment Horizon

Volatility is back with a bang this year after a period of extraordinary calm. During the first quarter of 2018, the S&P 500 Index rose or fell by at least 1% in 23 trading sessions, compared to eight such sessions in all of 2017. The renewed turbulence, triggered by a (...)

April 17

Opinion Growth/inflation mix in deteriorating mood

Last week, equity performance resulted mixed after major indices tested a technical support and after US put/call volatility spiked up, testifying a short term surge in risk aversion. The MSCI World index’s total return fell by 0.6% (S&P 500 -1.4%) but the EMU index (...)

April 16

Opinion Russia now - should investors be bold or sit on the sidelines?

People are drawing parallels with the Crimean annexation and sanctions put in place then - which heavily impacted the Russian market. But the macroeconomic Russian situation is very different today - it is much (...)

April 10

Opinion Inflation is back!

According to Valérie Quesada and Christophe Dehondt, Rate & Inflation Manager at CPR Asset Management, 2018 is the year of the return of inflation. It returns from the United States and will be transmitted to the Euro Zone. We should see 10-year inflation expectations at (...)

April 9

Opinion The US vs China: An unlikely trade war

Trump’s bark is worse than his bite and despite the recent headlines, the likelihood of a full-blown trade war with China is slim, says Ross Teverson, manager of the Jupiter Global Emerging Markets Fund. Despite the protectionist rhetoric, a sensible agreement on trade (...)

April 3

Opinion Trade war concerns unsettle financial markets

While the US macroeconomic data flow last week was on balance broadly in line with expectations, euro area data surprised again on the downside intensifying concerns about a slowing economic momentum.

March 27

Opinion Scope welcomes European Commission’s Action Plan on sustainable finance

The European Commission’s sustainable finance plan is a step forward, in the view of Scope Public Finance. This contribution outlines Scope’s views on the distinct nature of ESG and sovereign risk, their areas of overlap, and next research (...)

March 26

Opinion The Federal Reserve (Fed) did not disappoint at its March 21 meeting and tightened monetary policy by another 25 basis points (bps).

This move was widely anticipated and marks the sixth rate hike during the current tightening cycle—with more to come. Within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) text, the biggest change to the Fed’s statement was on the inflation front, where the timeframe for reaching (...)

March 19

Opinion Amazon .vs. Alibaba - battle of the business models

Alibaba is often heralded as the Amazon of China, and in terms of online retail dominance, it is. The business models of the two businesses are however very different. Indeed, Alibaba doesn’t consider itself an ecommerce company at (...)

March 19

Opinion South Africa: a ray of hope

Following weeks of contestation, Jacob Zuma resigned on 14 February 2018 after nine years in office, leaving a mixed legacy to South Africa’s new president, Cyril Ramaphosa.

March 15

Opinion Fear of Inflation

The increase in inflation has been considered as one reason for the correction. Accelerating inflation is related to the tightening of central banks’ monetary policy and the rise in the interest rate level, which may be a burden on economies and equity (...)

March 14

Opinion How realistic are return expectations really February 2018 ?

Equities and real estate can structually deliver returns in excess of economic growth, but within limits, says Robeco investors Lukas Daalder.

March 12

Opinion Trump’s macroeconomic poison cocktail

According to Lukas Daalder, Chief Investment Officer of Robeco Investment Solutions, tax cuts set to raise US government and trade deficits higher • Tariff plans add a new flavor to an already toxic cocktail • Spare capacity will determine the fate of this (...)

March 12

Opinion The ECB managed to deliver both a hawkish shift, and maintain a dovish stance

According to Andrew Mulliner, Portfolio Manager, Janus Henderson Investors Fixed Income Investment Strategy Group, the ECB managed to deliver both a hawkish shift, and maintain a dovish stance, at its meeting this (...)

March 12

Opinion Steel Tariffs from Trump to tighten metal supply from China

The steel and aluminium tariffs instated by President Trump should tighten the supply of metal coming from China. As a serial overproducer, cutback from China will be welcome news and could even increase prices; China is already trying to reduce capacity in steel and (...)

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Opinion Portfolio decarbonisation: making sure tomorrow never dies

The need to de-carbonise portfolios seems to have been broadly accepted, and many initiatives have been launched by investors on this topic: the Portfolio Decarbonisation Coalition, the Montreal Pledge, and events such as the Climate Finance Day, to name only a (...)

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Opinion Benchmarking: The Multi-Asset Class Exception

Ask any active fund manager about his benchmark, and he will have a ready-made answer. Even fixed-income managers have plenty of indices to choose from. The call is trickier for diversified fund managers...

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Opinion High dispersion of hedge funds’ returns in panic markets

The deflation and growth scares morphed into a vicious cycle last week. Multiple trading anomalies were observed, especially on Monday, suggesting that systematic and algorithmic trading amplified the sell-off.

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Opinion Growth/inflation mix in deteriorating mood

Last week, equity performance resulted mixed after major indices tested a technical support and after US put/call volatility spiked up, testifying a short term surge in risk aversion. The MSCI World index’s total return fell by 0.6% (S&P 500 -1.4%) but the EMU index (...)

Logo

Opinion Debt, Tech and Trade Wars Cloud the Investment Horizon

Volatility is back with a bang this year after a period of extraordinary calm. During the first quarter of 2018, the S&P 500 Index rose or fell by at least 1% in 23 trading sessions, compared to eight such sessions in all of 2017. The renewed turbulence, triggered by a (...)

Logo

Opinion Russia now - should investors be bold or sit on the sidelines?

People are drawing parallels with the Crimean annexation and sanctions put in place then - which heavily impacted the Russian market. But the macroeconomic Russian situation is very different today - it is much (...)

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Opinion The «French Quants» must relearn to code!

In France, many financial engineers feel some aversion for IT. Some, fascinated by models, don’t consider for a second writing thousands of lines of code…

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Opinion There is scope for a deal on Greek debt

The Greek government and its creditors have strong incentives to reach an agreement – and have scope to find a mutually beneficial solutions. Negotiations will be difficult - temporary setbacks could cause bouts of market volatility over the next few months, but these may (...)

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Opinion Piketty and Plutonomy: The revenge of inequality

When wealth and income are as concentrated as they are, and expected (a la Piketty) to get even more so, examining the “average” consumer or “average” investor makes little sense. Examining the fat tail – the behavior of the plutonomists, rather than that of the multitudinous (...)

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Opinion Europe’s Ugly Duckling Stocks Deserve More Love

Investors are looking at a very different Europe compared to one year ago. Even though Brexit talks are likely to drag on and Italy’s turbulent political environment is a potential wild card, political risk in Europe has eased (...)

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Opinion Gold, Mines & Natural Resources…a mixed 2017

Although the year was positive for natural resources overall, their performance lagged the global markets. 2018 could offer better prospects, an uptick in inflation being perhaps the best scenario for the theme.

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Opinion East Asian Onshore Markets To See Most AUM Growth

Fitch Ratings expects growth in asset under management (AUM) to be higher in the years to come in emerging Asia (China, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand) than in mature markets such as Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and (...)

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Opinion Mathematical models in finance and embedded risk underestimation

The statistical assumption of normal (log-normal) distribution of stock returns (prices) is not that strong and tail events’ occurrence is largely undervalued. Nevertheless, this modeling framework has been widely used for strong (...)

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Opinion Swiss National Bank (SNB) decided to abandon its minimum exchange-rate floor policy

Salman Ahmed, LOIM’s Global Strategist, has commented on the Swiss National Bank’s policy update this morning. He discusses the implications for the Swiss currency and the wider impact on the eurozone economy.

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Opinion The gold market is a «bubble ready to burst» !

According to U.S. bank Wells Fargo, speculative demand pushed the gold market to « a bubble that is about to explode »…

Focus

Opinion Psychology and smart beta

‘Smart beta’ sounds like an oxymoron. How smart can it be to continue using the same strategy in such fickle markets? A portfolio manager calling on all his skills (‘alpha’) in analysing market environments (the source of ‘beta’) should be able to outperform an unchanged (...)

Focus

Mory Doré’s column

Mory Doré’s views on monetary policy, asset allocation, financial management of banks and understanding of crises

Éclairages Économiques Notebook

The association Éclairages Économiques share with us analysis mostly relying on current research on various economics issues

Selection: Prospects

Regulation Regulatory prospects: 2012 and beyond

2009 was a year of intense reflection on the functioning of the financial sector. There followed an intense regulatory activity in 2010, unfortunately with few formal adoptions of regulations. 2011 marked the surge of the will to succeed with provisional schedules. Where do (...)

Reading An Economic Approach to Marriage

Marriages are not always very stable. A divorce rate of 50 % in developed countries serves to prove. We ask ourselves if it is possible to form stable relationships. An economic analysis may be able to answer this (...)

Note Aging population poses new opportunities for global investment managers

Early conclusions from ongoing SimCorp StrategyLab research point to demographic changes as a key factor influencing the future of the global investment management industry.

Note Launch of green bonds

The term «Green Bonds» is more frequently used to describe a market that should mature very fast in order to deal with numerous requests for investments in the field of green infrastructure projects.

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