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November 15

Opinion Brexit update – the end of the beginning

Multiple sources suggest that UK and EU negotiators have reached a draft agreement on Britain’s terms for leaving the EU (the withdrawal agreement) including backstop mechanisms designed to ensure that Brexit does not create a hard border in Northern (...)

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Why we would start reweighting U.S. stock-pickers

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Midterm Elections 2018: Surfing a Blue Wave

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October 30

Opinion Hedge Funds Take A Hit in early Q4

Hedge funds were not immune to recent market developments. They were down during the first half of October due to the underperformance of CTA, L/S Equity, and Special Situations strategies. Meanwhile, Merger Arbitrage, Fixed Income Arbitrage, Global Macro and L/S Equity (...)

October 29

Opinion The sell-off accelerates

Equity markets fell on Wednesday with the S&P 500 down 3.1%, extending the index’s losses to 9.4% since hitting an all-time closing high just a few weeks ago on 20 September. With today’s decline the S&P 500 has erased its price gain for the (...)

October 29

Opinion Why we’re banking on financial inclusion

This rising penetration of financial products and services will, according to Ross Teverson Head of Strategy, Emerging Markets, forge dramatic change in developing regions of the world, in turn creating opportunities for (...)

October 26

Opinion Perspectives on L/S Equity strategies after the Selloff

Risk assets have yet to find stable ground after the recent turmoil. The rebound in equities since the October 11th trough appears fragile. Last week, the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting were hawkish and Italy’s 10-year sovereign spread with Germany jumped to levels unseen (...)

October 15

Opinion Capital Market Pulse

We expect risk assets to continue to grind higher, and maintain our exposure. It might not be time to add too much risk, but we don’t think it’s time to take it all off either.

October 12

Opinion US stocks plunge in tech-fueled rout

On Wednesday, US stocks fell dramatically, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling more than 800 points. The rout was led by technology stocks, with the NASDAQ Composite Index down 316 points, but all sectors experienced losses. This was the worst one-day sell-off for (...)

October 8

Opinion Eye on America as global liquidity dries up

US economic growth should hold up even as quantitative tightening continues to take its toll in emerging markets, Europe grapples with ongoing structural issues and the UK is hamstrung by Brexit, according to Talib Sheikh, manager of the Jupiter Flexible Income Fund. “In (...)

October 8

Opinion U.S. Economy: "Historically Rare"

Fed Chairman Powell reiterated the FOMC’s view of the economy as unusually favorable; Argentina has made some gains, courtesy of the IMF; Italy’s latest budget is still a work in progress.

October 3

Opinion Italy’s expansionary budget goals add to growing risks to sovereign rating

Italy’s announcement of a tentative budget deficit goal of 2.4% of GDP over 2019-2021 could compound the country’s existing debt sustainability challenges. This represents a significant risk to Italy’s A-/Negative Outlook (...)

September 26

Opinion What happened to hedge funds’alpha since the summer?

While hedge fund performance and alpha were honorable until the summer, our analysis suggests that they erased about 2.5% of alpha since June, with no turn in sight yet in September.

September 19

Opinion Escaping Lehman’s shadow

Financial markets have staged a remarkable recovery since the fall of Lehman Brothers, but it’s been a joyless affair,” says Vice Chairman Edward Bonham Carter. “The ending of central bank support, both feared and wanted, hangs like a sword of Damocles over the (...)

September 18

Opinion Is South Africa the Next Currency Crisis?

2018 has been marked by various emerging market crises. From Turkey to Argentina, confidence has eroded, resulting in bond and currency chaos. There is a growing focus on South Africa, and our analysis suggests that will (...)

September 13

Opinion Lehman: 10 Years After

It’s often said that you should never let a good crisis go to waste. As we approach the 10-year anniversary of the seminal event of the Global Financial Crisis – the collapse of Lehman Brothers – investors may wonder if we’ve learned anything from past mistakes. Through the (...)

September 4

Opinion Getting to the Truth on Trade, and Yes, Ricardo Can Still Rest In Peace

Trade volumes, trade agreements, and tariffs have been the focus of capital markets over the last year. Capital markets have taken the existing unencumbered trade regime as a given, and priced in the continuation of the existing order of ever-expanding trade and lower (...)

September 3

Opinion Greece: the end of bailout program

The end of the Greek bailout program on Aug 20 bears both virtues and risks. While the country is regaining some fiscal room of manoeuvre, there is no longer any additional precautionary funding scheme in place, which means Greece is now reliant on financial market funding (...)

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Opinion A Brexit could cause a major paradigm shift, both in macroeconomic terms and in the financial markets, according to experts at Natixis Asset Management

On 23 June 2016, a referendum will be held on the United Kingdom’s continued membership of the European Union. As the Brexit and Bremain campaigns intensify, experts at Natixis Asset Management have examined the macroeconomic impact and the consequences for the financial (...)

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Opinion Do the layoffs at Crédit Agricole represent a sharp decline in French banks?

The layoffs have unquestionably impacted the personnel of the French banks but a greater malaise reigns. A top ranked outgoing senior executive considers the current situation as symbolizing an unprecedented weakening of French (...)

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Opinion Are we heading for a bear market?

A series of seemingly unstoppable stock market highs have left investors wondering if a correction is coming. But predicting one is harder than it looks, says Lukas Daalder, Chief Investment Officer of Robeco Investment (...)

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Opinion Europe – The darkest hour is just before the dawn

The European Central Bank (ECB) is embarking on quantitative easing (QE) at a time when tailwinds are already beginning to build behind the euro area economy. Threadneedle Investments’ fixed income fund manager Martin Harvey asks if we can dare to dream of a brighter (...)

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Opinion USA: an impression of capacity under-utilization…

Those who were hoping for a shift in tone from the Federal Reserve regarding an imminent rate hike, encouraged by increasing signs of a recovery in the US, will be disappointed. The Fed has reiterated its concerns over the dynamics of the (...)

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Opinion Amazon .vs. Alibaba - battle of the business models

Alibaba is often heralded as the Amazon of China, and in terms of online retail dominance, it is. The business models of the two businesses are however very different. Indeed, Alibaba doesn’t consider itself an ecommerce company at (...)

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Opinion Risk free assets ?

But what is safe? Is it the AAA or AA rating provided by rating agencies such as S&P and Moody’s? Does “safe” equal goodwill bonds issued by sovereign countries such as France, Japan, the United Kingdom or the United States? (...)

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Opinion Launching a hedge fund: reputation first!

Although capital requirements are much more important now than they were a dozen years ago, it is reputation which is all important...

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Opinion Central banks: toward a bipolar world

Should one expect a huge differential in interest rates? Undoubtedly. According to René Defossez, having said that, this differential should be far more pronounced at the short end of the curve than at the long end. The reason is that short rates will be influenced directly (...)

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Opinion Germany, or even Europe, to be thrown into political turmoil ?

In the Netherlands, the moderates hold on to power. Then came the election of French President Emmanuel Macron and the decisive victory of his newly founded movement, La République en Marche, in the French general (...)

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Opinion According to Natixis Asset Management: “adaptability and flexibility will be the watchwords on the markets in 2018”

Corporates and households seem to have regained their confidence in the future in 2017 against a flattering macroeconomic backdrop. However, Natixis Asset Management’s experts caution against excessive optimism, as 2018 will not be entirely devoid of events that could throw a (...)

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Opinion Benchmarking: The Multi-Asset Class Exception

Ask any active fund manager about his benchmark, and he will have a ready-made answer. Even fixed-income managers have plenty of indices to choose from. The call is trickier for diversified fund managers...

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Opinion What is “risk free” ?

Would it be conceivable that top-quality corporates can take over the baton of being the “risk free” investment of choice? Nestle default protection is cheaper than German sovereign protection and Wal-Mart default protection is cheaper than United States sovereign (...)

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Opinion A negative interest rate has one benefit: It forces Germans to reconsider their investment behavior

According to Stefan Kreuzkamp, Chief Investment Officer at Deutsche Asset, as we approached this negative interest rate scenario, there have been some winners and many losers. German savers are in the losing camp because their exposure to equities and real estate is below (...)

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Opinion The Federal Reserve (Fed) did not disappoint at its March 21 meeting and tightened monetary policy by another 25 basis points (bps).

This move was widely anticipated and marks the sixth rate hike during the current tightening cycle—with more to come. Within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) text, the biggest change to the Fed’s statement was on the inflation front, where the timeframe for reaching (...)

Focus

Opinion Psychology and smart beta

‘Smart beta’ sounds like an oxymoron. How smart can it be to continue using the same strategy in such fickle markets? A portfolio manager calling on all his skills (‘alpha’) in analysing market environments (the source of ‘beta’) should be able to outperform an unchanged (...)

Focus

Mory Doré’s column

Mory Doré’s views on monetary policy, asset allocation, financial management of banks and understanding of crises

Éclairages Économiques Notebook

The association Éclairages Économiques share with us analysis mostly relying on current research on various economics issues

Selection: Prospects

Regulation Regulatory prospects: 2012 and beyond

2009 was a year of intense reflection on the functioning of the financial sector. There followed an intense regulatory activity in 2010, unfortunately with few formal adoptions of regulations. 2011 marked the surge of the will to succeed with provisional schedules. Where do (...)

Reading An Economic Approach to Marriage

Marriages are not always very stable. A divorce rate of 50 % in developed countries serves to prove. We ask ourselves if it is possible to form stable relationships. An economic analysis may be able to answer this (...)

Note Aging population poses new opportunities for global investment managers

Early conclusions from ongoing SimCorp StrategyLab research point to demographic changes as a key factor influencing the future of the global investment management industry.

Note Launch of green bonds

The term «Green Bonds» is more frequently used to describe a market that should mature very fast in order to deal with numerous requests for investments in the field of green infrastructure projects.

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