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July 16

Opinion US fixed income: Buying opportunity or a falling knife?

10 year US Treasury yields crossed the psychologically important 3% threshold in the 2nd quarter, the highest level in four years - buying opportunity or a falling knife? Given these critical levels and an uptick in US inflation, investors are justifiably worried about (...)

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ECB: Bold is beautiful

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Polarisation in the luxury space

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June 14

Opinion Fed and ECB to stick to exit plans

Following a sharp spike in risk premia in late May on uncertainties about new elections in Italy, markets mildly recovered from their state of emergency.

June 12

Opinion Reform is the secret of India’s growth

Since assuming office in 2014, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has put in place a raft of reform measures aimed at strengthening the nation’s infrastructure and economic fundamentals.

June 12

Opinion Investing in Japan? Look beyond the trade war rhetoric

The U.S. and China are edging ever closer to a full-blown trade war, but it won’t just be the two superpowers affected. With its equity markets highly correlated to global growth, many view Japan as a potential casualty of the ongoing (...)

June 11

Opinion Macro Managers are scratching their heads just like you

Europe took center stage this week, with further developments in the Italian political saga reminding investors that there are still powerful Eurosceptic forces at play and forcing investors to end their hopes of meaningful eurozone reforms. However, fading prospects of (...)

June 4

Opinion Back to inflation: The inflation theme enjoys a more favourable momentum in the euro zone

The first estimates of May’s figures show very clearly that overall inflation has accelerated after several months of stability, proof that the ECB’s accommodating policy is being efficient. The analysis of Thomas Page-Lecuyer, Senior investment specialist at CPR (...)

June 4

Opinion Political uncertainty weighs on Italy

Italy’s struggle to form a government and the threat of a new election have caused bond spreads to widen, signaling market concerns. Despite Italian bonds recovering, volatility is running high and investors need to ask whether there will be a contagion impact across Europe (...)

May 29

Opinion Anatomy of a dollar rally

In the era of Central Bank policy influence, we have become used to large shifts in the performance and trends of different currencies across time. For the better part of the past two years, the currency headlines have been dominated by a weakening US (...)

May 15

Opinion Italian populist parties close to a deal

Last week, equity markets kept moving higher, while the US yield curve continued to flatten. The 2-10 and 10-30 differentials reached the lowest level since August 2007. President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran’s nuclear deal pushed oil prices at the highest level (...)

May 3

Opinion Pakistan: Balancing risks and rewards

For most investors, Pakistan is largely defined as being highly volatile, be it in terms of security, politics or the economy. And in many ways, it is. However, Charles Sunnucks, Assistant Fund Manager, Emerging Markets, argues there is increasing evidence of positive (...)

April 30

Opinion US yields break 3% threshold for the first time in four years

Yields on10-year US Treasuries temporarily broke through 3% last week to the highest level since early 2014. We expect rising US wage and price pressures, a more assertive Fed and a higher fiscal deficit to help yields ultimately pass this threshold on a more persistent (...)

April 19

Opinion Debt, Tech and Trade Wars Cloud the Investment Horizon

Volatility is back with a bang this year after a period of extraordinary calm. During the first quarter of 2018, the S&P 500 Index rose or fell by at least 1% in 23 trading sessions, compared to eight such sessions in all of 2017. The renewed turbulence, triggered by a (...)

April 17

Opinion Growth/inflation mix in deteriorating mood

Last week, equity performance resulted mixed after major indices tested a technical support and after US put/call volatility spiked up, testifying a short term surge in risk aversion. The MSCI World index’s total return fell by 0.6% (S&P 500 -1.4%) but the EMU index (...)

April 16

Opinion Russia now - should investors be bold or sit on the sidelines?

People are drawing parallels with the Crimean annexation and sanctions put in place then - which heavily impacted the Russian market. But the macroeconomic Russian situation is very different today - it is much (...)

April 10

Opinion Inflation is back!

According to Valérie Quesada and Christophe Dehondt, Rate & Inflation Manager at CPR Asset Management, 2018 is the year of the return of inflation. It returns from the United States and will be transmitted to the Euro Zone. We should see 10-year inflation expectations at (...)

April 9

Opinion The US vs China: An unlikely trade war

Trump’s bark is worse than his bite and despite the recent headlines, the likelihood of a full-blown trade war with China is slim, says Ross Teverson, manager of the Jupiter Global Emerging Markets Fund. Despite the protectionist rhetoric, a sensible agreement on trade (...)

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Opinion Portfolio decarbonisation: making sure tomorrow never dies

The need to de-carbonise portfolios seems to have been broadly accepted, and many initiatives have been launched by investors on this topic: the Portfolio Decarbonisation Coalition, the Montreal Pledge, and events such as the Climate Finance Day, to name only a (...)

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Opinion Europe’s Ugly Duckling Stocks Deserve More Love

Investors are looking at a very different Europe compared to one year ago. Even though Brexit talks are likely to drag on and Italy’s turbulent political environment is a potential wild card, political risk in Europe has eased (...)

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Opinion What would happen in case of Grexit?

According to William Davies, Head of global equities at Threadneedle Investments if Greece leaves the euro, contagion will be feared, the volatility of a currency under threat will resurface, and we revisit the throes of the euro crisis we endured a few years back. Not our (...)

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Opinion Euro to gain reserve status and expand in the coming years

According to Michael Story, economist at Western Asset, while some peripheral European countries will be unable to escape restructuring their debt, the euro is unlikely to collapse any time soon as a result, and should in the short to medium term strengthen its position as a (...)

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Opinion Brexit viewpoint: generational differences

European equities manager Tim Stevenson gives his personal views on the UK referendum, assessing some of the current arguments around EU membership and the impact of a potential Brexit.

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Opinion China at crossroads

According to Aninda Mitra, senior sovereign analyst at Standish Mellon Asset Management, the International Monetary Fund’s in-principle acceptance of the CNY in the SDR basket is, in our view, an important step in cementing the process of greater medium-term capital account (...)

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Opinion According to Natixis Asset Management: “adaptability and flexibility will be the watchwords on the markets in 2018”

Corporates and households seem to have regained their confidence in the future in 2017 against a flattering macroeconomic backdrop. However, Natixis Asset Management’s experts caution against excessive optimism, as 2018 will not be entirely devoid of events that could throw a (...)

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Opinion President-elect Trump. 5 predictions on what happens next in the global economy and markets.

The votes are in and it is clear. For the second time in 2016 we have had a major rejection of the political status quo. Following on from the shock UK referendum result, a Trump victory is further evidence that many believe that we have reached peak globalisation and income (...)

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Opinion The conditions are there for gold to return to USD 2000/oz over the next six months

The expectation of new central bank action was favorable for gold, causing a renewed surge in its price. Securities purchases by the European and US monetary authorities should help to propel gold towards new records.

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Opinion US yields break 3% threshold for the first time in four years

Yields on10-year US Treasuries temporarily broke through 3% last week to the highest level since early 2014. We expect rising US wage and price pressures, a more assertive Fed and a higher fiscal deficit to help yields ultimately pass this threshold on a more persistent (...)

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Opinion Bond yields are heading up

According to Christophe Donay, Chief Strategist at Pictet Wealth Management, Bond yields are heading up. The rebound in equity markets since the beginning of October, looks largely played out, with further gains dependant on a turnaround in earnings forecasts. Yields on DM (...)

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Opinion Hedge funds managers : Are women better than men?

In recent months, two studies leading to the same conclusions, set tongues wagging in the hedge fund industry : women hedge fund managers perform better than their male counterparts...

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Opinion Don’t believe everything you read

African elections are back in the headlines, apparently for all the wrong reasons. But according to Aberdeen Asset Management Senior Investment Manager Kevin Daly, the reality is better than some would have you (...)

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Opinion A Dovish Fed is Set to Support CTA and Macro Managers

Markets were on standby mode ahead of the Fed’s meeting last week. Hedge funds were flat and there was little dispersion in returns across the managers (see chart). Event-Driven outperformed as equity volatility edged lower. Meanwhile, Fixed Income strategies underperformed (...)

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Opinion Show Me The Money

The U.S. and indeed the global economy is walking a fine line due to increasing leverage and the potential for too high (or too low) interest rates to wreak havoc on an increasingly stressed financial system. Be more concerned about the return of your money than the return (...)

Focus

Opinion Psychology and smart beta

‘Smart beta’ sounds like an oxymoron. How smart can it be to continue using the same strategy in such fickle markets? A portfolio manager calling on all his skills (‘alpha’) in analysing market environments (the source of ‘beta’) should be able to outperform an unchanged (...)

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Mory Doré’s column

Mory Doré’s views on monetary policy, asset allocation, financial management of banks and understanding of crises

Éclairages Économiques Notebook

The association Éclairages Économiques share with us analysis mostly relying on current research on various economics issues

Selection: Prospects

Regulation Regulatory prospects: 2012 and beyond

2009 was a year of intense reflection on the functioning of the financial sector. There followed an intense regulatory activity in 2010, unfortunately with few formal adoptions of regulations. 2011 marked the surge of the will to succeed with provisional schedules. Where do (...)

Reading An Economic Approach to Marriage

Marriages are not always very stable. A divorce rate of 50 % in developed countries serves to prove. We ask ourselves if it is possible to form stable relationships. An economic analysis may be able to answer this (...)

Note Aging population poses new opportunities for global investment managers

Early conclusions from ongoing SimCorp StrategyLab research point to demographic changes as a key factor influencing the future of the global investment management industry.

Note Launch of green bonds

The term «Green Bonds» is more frequently used to describe a market that should mature very fast in order to deal with numerous requests for investments in the field of green infrastructure projects.

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