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April 9

Opinion Equities and corporate credit well placed as fed pauses for breath

Last year ended with torrid market returns, and we entered 2019 with global financial conditions tightening sharply. So where does that leave us, and how will we react with regards to the Global Multi Asset Income (...)

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The Australian housing bubble is close to popping

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March 28

Opinion Brexit’s impact for equity investors

For someone living, moving to or doing business with the United Kingdom in the last year, the “Brexit Question” has been an important consideration. During the beginning of 2019 there have been several dates, votes and occasions when we expected to get a detailed picture of (...)

March 20

Opinion Sterling and Equities unmoved by Brexit extension vote

Following the vote to extend the Brexit process the British pound has not shown significant movement around equity market opening time, currently trading at above 1.32 vs the USD.

March 11

Opinion ECB’s decision is likely to extend the period of suffering for European banks

Since the financial crisis, the unwritten rule has been that bad economic news was good news for investors, as central-bank taps likely would be opened. And if a central bank talked more dovishly than expected in a meeting, the markets were quick to react and (...)

March 11

Opinion The ECB is rushing.. at slow speed

Although they will only have 2-year maturities, the LTROs were already announced, so early that details are not even finalized yet. It was visibly considered necessary to send a strong message now.

March 11

Opinion Dave Lafferty : "If you were waiting for evidence that European monetary policy has turned the corner, you’ll definitely be disappointed... if not surprised."

Draghi essentially confessed to what everyone already knows - the European economy , after a short bout of strength in late 2017/early 2018 - is decelerating again.

March 7

Opinion Hedge fund briefs : A rising tide lifts most boats

Hedge fund strategies experienced a symmetric move. The strategies that suffered in December such as L/S Equity and Relative Value Arbitrage rebounded recently, while those resilient at the end of 2018, such as CTAs, lagged behind so far in Q1 due to their short equity (...)

February 28

Opinion Will the ECB be able to raise its key rates?

Markets no longer believe in the ability of the ECB to raise its key rates in 2019 and the theme of the Japanization of Europe is coming back. A comparison with the Fed’s experience in recent years allows us to see more (...)

February 27

Opinion China: a health warning

“China is battling slowing economic growth with a host of stimulus measures, but a US policy of containment, the rise of rival low-cost manufacturing hubs and a dwindling current account surplus call for caution,” says Jason Pidcock, Head of Strategy, Asian (...)

February 25

Opinion Brexit and beyond: Investing in Europe amid Political Risk

Political risk has been a feature in European markets for years. Lately, from Italy’s fiscal squabbles to turmoil in the streets of France, it feels like the volume of political noise has risen. However, political risk is not a reason to avoid European (...)

February 19

Opinion Responsible investment has become increasingly important for many asset owners, so what does 2019 hold?

Cloud computing, machine learning and the potential of the, as yet, relatively untapped field of data science have been rapidly rising up the agenda of the investment world. In an industry that is undergoing seismic changes, the capabilities, reach and efficiencies that data (...)

February 11

Opinion Lessons from a decade of bank bailouts

A decade on, banks in some major economies have largely recovered from the global financial crisis (GFC). In others, however, legacies of bad assets continue to clog the banking system, stalling the engine of economic growth. The reasons for this divergence lie largely in (...)

February 7

Opinion Why the Fed will stop reducing its balance sheet in 2019

At last night’s FOMC, Jerome Powell explained that "the normalization of the size of the balance sheet would be completed sooner" and that the Fed would now "evaluate the appropriate timing for the end of balance sheet reduction”. We briefly explain why (...)

February 5

Opinion MSCI: Five Key ESG Trends to Watch in 2019

MSCI ESG Research has issued its 2019 ESG Trends to Watch Report, which identifies five key ESG trends in 2019 and the potentially overlooked costs and opportunities underlying these themes...

February 4

Opinion Low inflation : dry powder?

One way to look at low global inflation is as evidence of policy successes on the part of countries’ central banks — especially in Emerging Market (EM) countries, where inflation rates are often below their central bank (...)

January 29

Opinion Goldilocks vs Armageddon: It’s time to buy EM

Look outside the US, Goldilocks scenario doesn’t hold anymore; EM back on the buy list: take advantage of the Armageddon panic; The Damocles swords of 2018 are slowly being pulled back

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Opinion Benchmarking: The Multi-Asset Class Exception

Ask any active fund manager about his benchmark, and he will have a ready-made answer. Even fixed-income managers have plenty of indices to choose from. The call is trickier for diversified fund managers...

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Opinion Brexit illustrates the diversification benefits of trend-following strategies

During the Brexit, the average CTA did very well: the SG Trend Index, a performance indicator for trend-following strategies, jumped 2.9% on 24 June. Trend-following strategies outperformed both equities, with the MSCI World Index dropping 4.9%, and hedge funds in general, (...)

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Opinion Brazil’s stockmarket and currency have fallen sharply on concerns about a new political crisis in Latin America’s largest economy

According to Matthew Vaight, Manager of M&G Global Emerging Markets, investors are worried that the revelations could lead to political turmoil and jeopardise the government’s plans to revive the Brazilian economy...

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Opinion Vietnam & Cambodia - Asian frontiers on the front foot

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Opinion Has the selloff left scars on stock pickers and trend-followers?

Hedge funds strongly recovered from the selloff, with only two exceptions: i) the fixed income funds, flat this week, still isolated from the epicenter, and ii) neutral equity funds, still suffering from sector and factor rotations. This week, we checked if the selloff (...)

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Opinion Combining Active and Passive management in a Portfolio

In recent years, long-held ideas on portfolio construction have been called into question. Investors can now choose from a range of “smart beta” strategies, offering exposure to market risk premia in a systematic, transparent fashion. Where does the dividing line between (...)

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Opinion India: After a period of euphoria, doubts are resurfacing

According to Laetitia Baldeschi, Co-Head of Research and Strategy at CPR AM, their equity managers are therefore underweight on India within their CPR GEAR Emergents strategy relative to the MSCI Emerging index.

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Opinion LTRO – game changer or not?

The ECB announced its second long-term refinancing operation (LTRO) on Wednesday. The auction led to 800 banks tapping the ECB for EUR 530bn in three year funding at 1%.

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Opinion Agricultural markets: « We will never tackle volatility »

According to Michel Portier, CEO of Agritel, market information is often widely known but the weather market is the main factor of influence on agricultural markets...

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Opinion ECB adds stimulus, but markets want more

According to Schroders Azad Zangana, European Economist and Chris Ames, Senior Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, the cut in interest rates is totally irrelevant. Due to the glut of liquidity in money markets, short-term interest rates have been below the ECB’s main financing (...)

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Opinion Caution will be needed in emerging markets in 2017, waiting to find the right entry point

2016 has been a better year for emerging market returns after underperforming for many years. However it has been a volatile year and one has had to be an active manger, being selective, tactical and rotating between asset classes and currencies to maximize (...)

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Opinion US equities remain attractive

Despite the recent downgrade of US debt and the concerns surrounding its economy, Mike Clarfeld, portfolio manager at Legg Mason subsidiary, ClearBridge Advisors explains why the company is still positive on US (...)

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Opinion SNL Financial: Will Equities Still Boom and FICC suffer in 2016?

SNL Financial data shows how equities and M&A success have helped investment banks offset pain in fixed income, currencies and commodities (FICC) through the first nine months of 2015, a trend they may well need to continue in (...)

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Opinion Saudi Arabia heading towards a post-oil era…

It has taken a long time to Saudi Arabia to embark on a reform wave, but it seems that after eight decades of oil dependency, and under the current context of sustained low crude oil prices that pushed Saudi Arabia into a budget deficit of nearly $100bn last year (15% of (...)

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Opinion Fed: The Art of Evasion

The US Federal Reserve maintained a status quo on its interest rates at its September meeting, thereby extending a period of zero interest rates that has lasted for virtually seven years already. This decision, which ought to have reassured investors, was on the contrary (...)

Focus

Opinion Psychology and smart beta

‘Smart beta’ sounds like an oxymoron. How smart can it be to continue using the same strategy in such fickle markets? A portfolio manager calling on all his skills (‘alpha’) in analysing market environments (the source of ‘beta’) should be able to outperform an unchanged (...)

Focus

Mory Doré’s column

Mory Doré’s views on monetary policy, asset allocation, financial management of banks and understanding of crises

Éclairages Économiques Notebook

The association Éclairages Économiques share with us analysis mostly relying on current research on various economics issues

Selection: Prospects

Regulation Regulatory prospects: 2012 and beyond

2009 was a year of intense reflection on the functioning of the financial sector. There followed an intense regulatory activity in 2010, unfortunately with few formal adoptions of regulations. 2011 marked the surge of the will to succeed with provisional schedules. Where do (...)

Reading An Economic Approach to Marriage

Marriages are not always very stable. A divorce rate of 50 % in developed countries serves to prove. We ask ourselves if it is possible to form stable relationships. An economic analysis may be able to answer this (...)

Note Aging population poses new opportunities for global investment managers

Early conclusions from ongoing SimCorp StrategyLab research point to demographic changes as a key factor influencing the future of the global investment management industry.

Note Launch of green bonds

The term «Green Bonds» is more frequently used to describe a market that should mature very fast in order to deal with numerous requests for investments in the field of green infrastructure projects.

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