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November 29

Opinion Are L/S Equity managers concerned by the covid resurgence?

Managers in the U.S. and Europe are continuing to reduce both their net and gross exposures, now converging near their long-term lows. They are selectively selling or shorting stocks that are the most exposed to tighter restrictions, preferring value stocks instead (to (...)

Opinion

UBS Year Ahead 2022: A year of discovery

Opinion

Net zero emissions: Pie in the sky or piece of cake?

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November 15

Opinion Bond Pain trade for global macro

Gyrations in U.S. rates were highly challenging to navigate. Bond volatility surged in October as the Fed prepared to withdraw monetary accommodation and as investors struggled to assess the medium-term path of (...)

November 2

Opinion Eurozone growth beats expectations, as inflation hits a 13-year high

The ECB sees inflation pressures as temporary and is unlikely to raise interest rates. The eurozone economy has outperformed consensus estimates as it grew by 2.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, matching the previous quarter. This leaves the level of economic activity just 0.5% (...)

October 12

Opinion Understanding the anatomy of a financial Bubble

Infamous for the belief that there is a bubble in long-duration assets, Richard Bernstein Advisors reckon there are sizeable bubbles inflating. A recent report investigates what’s causing such widespread bubbles, their potential effects on the overall economy, and the (...)

September 27

Opinion Federal Reserve moves towards November Taper

The Federal Reserve is very likely heading for a tapering of its bond purchases in November, but the longer-term outlook depends on how transitory the current bout of inflation is. If we are correct, i.e. it will fade more quickly than expected, then we should see the (...)

September 6

Opinion Increase in inequalities and accommodative monetary policies : what causes what ?

While the idea that accommodative monetary policies imply an increase in inequalities, a research paper presented at the Jackson Hole central bankers conference reverses the causality and tends to suggest that it is the rise in inequalities that causes the decline in (...)

July 19

Opinion Asset-quality Quarterly: brighter prospects for European banks

Credit conditions for European banks are normalising and prospects for the second half of the year look bright. A return to pre-crisis operating income with higher loss absorption buffers accumulated during the crisis will facilitate management of (...)

May 18

Opinion Covid-19 index: when might life return to ‘normal’?

As one of the world’s largest economies the US is a key focus for investors. With every country attempting to return to normality following the coronavirus pandemic, we are monitoring when US economic activity might get back on track, as well as other measures of “normality” (...)

April 1

Opinion Turkey – Here we Go Again

What does the appointment of the fourth central bank governor in less than two years mean for investors in Turkey? As have we have seen in the press, and to everyone’s surprise, last week the Turkish government replaced central bank chairman Naci Agbal, just four and a half (...)

March 11

Opinion What is your expectation on how central banks will act on interest rates at their upcoming meetings?

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) are in different positions, where the Fed has eased back on its stimulus while the ECB has kept its purchase programmes going.

February 25

Opinion Glimpses of light at the tunnel’s end

After a rollercoaster 2020 for European high yield markets, 2021 looks set to be more stable. Fears of high levels of corporate defaults have proved unjustified, allowing high yield to rebound in 2020 and setting the scene for the coming (...)

February 8

Opinion Silver squeeze: What’s behind the surge in silver?

Silver is in the spotlight this week, after the popular r/WallStreetBets community on Reddit highlighted the fundamental value in acquiring silver at current levels. The online posting was the catalyst for increased retail flows and awareness. Last Thursday 28 January, the (...)

February 2

Opinion Don’t Mistake Growth for Quality

As investors adjust for a potential style rotation, we urge them not to abandon their portfolios’ “quality compounders” and “transition winners.” Following the shock of the coronavirus crisis, there is a lot of talk of “early-cycle” economic dynamics: higher GDP growth, inflation (...)

January 31

Opinion This week’s chaos in GameStop and related areas has blown some of the froth off equity markets and has certainly transformed the mood of some market participants

The parabolic rise of this stock, reportedly driven by retail speculation, short-covering and options hedging, has reverberated across a number of other stocks and sectors.

January 27

Opinion UK Equities: Resurrection of the deplorable asset class!

If the UK equity market was out of favour at the beginning of 2020, it’s even more so now. Until the arrival of three vaccines prompted a wave of market exuberance towards the end of the year, UK equities had fallen approximately 20%. The only two worse-performing equity (...)

January 25

Opinion Laggards, electric vehicles and energy storage: The outlook for the climate transition in 2021

Jaime Ramos Martin, portfolio manager of Aviva Investors’ climate transition strategy, and Rick Stathers, Aviva Investors’ climate lead, look at three themes that will shape the outlook in 2021.

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Latest articles

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Opinion Eurozone growth beats expectations, as inflation hits a 13-year high

The ECB sees inflation pressures as temporary and is unlikely to raise interest rates. The eurozone economy has outperformed consensus estimates as it grew by 2.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, matching the previous quarter. This leaves the level of economic activity just 0.5% (...)

Logo

Opinion Understanding the anatomy of a financial Bubble

Infamous for the belief that there is a bubble in long-duration assets, Richard Bernstein Advisors reckon there are sizeable bubbles inflating. A recent report investigates what’s causing such widespread bubbles, their potential effects on the overall economy, and the (...)

Logo

Opinion Bond Pain trade for global macro

Gyrations in U.S. rates were highly challenging to navigate. Bond volatility surged in October as the Fed prepared to withdraw monetary accommodation and as investors struggled to assess the medium-term path of (...)

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Opinion Review of the chinese economy at the end of the summer of 2019

The monthly data published at the start of the second quarter are fairly mixed and show no tangible signs of growth momentum improving in China. The GDP published for the second quarter has recently confirmed this sentiment. The slowdown at work since the start of the decade (...)

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Opinion Federal Reserve moves towards November Taper

The Federal Reserve is very likely heading for a tapering of its bond purchases in November, but the longer-term outlook depends on how transitory the current bout of inflation is. If we are correct, i.e. it will fade more quickly than expected, then we should see the (...)

Logo

Opinion Silver squeeze: What’s behind the surge in silver?

Silver is in the spotlight this week, after the popular r/WallStreetBets community on Reddit highlighted the fundamental value in acquiring silver at current levels. The online posting was the catalyst for increased retail flows and awareness. Last Thursday 28 January, the (...)

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Opinion US yields break 3% threshold for the first time in four years

Yields on10-year US Treasuries temporarily broke through 3% last week to the highest level since early 2014. We expect rising US wage and price pressures, a more assertive Fed and a higher fiscal deficit to help yields ultimately pass this threshold on a more persistent (...)

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Opinion What happened to hedge funds’alpha since the summer?

While hedge fund performance and alpha were honorable until the summer, our analysis suggests that they erased about 2.5% of alpha since June, with no turn in sight yet in September.

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Opinion Accidental Americans Create Headache for French, European Banks

Boris Johnson, who was born in New York but left when he was five, found it outrageous that he was obliged to pay US taxes. The easy solution was to pay to renounce his US citizenship, which he did in 2016. Hundreds of other accidental Americans don’t have the luxury of such (...)

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Opinion Why investors should be optimistic about Japan

There are several reasons to be optimistic about Japanese equities in 2020. First, consider valuations. Whether on price-to-book or price-to-earnings, Japanese stocks are among the cheapest in all developed equity markets. Take the price-to-book ratio of the MSCI (...)

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Opinion Positioning portfolios for 2017

We see reflation ? rising nominal growth, wages and inflation – accelerating globally in 2017, led by the U.S. This theme is central to how we suggest positioning portfolios for the coming year, including our preference for value stocks over bond (...)

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Opinion The Euro will survive, but not the current Euro zone !

If the existence of the euro is not challenged, it is the case of the euro zone in its current configuration. In the same way that cohabitation between countries with maintaining parity exchange had become impossible in the EMS, cohabitation has become impossible within (...)

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Opinion What is “risk free” ?

Would it be conceivable that top-quality corporates can take over the baton of being the “risk free” investment of choice? Nestle default protection is cheaper than German sovereign protection and Wal-Mart default protection is cheaper than United States sovereign (...)

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Opinion The sell-off accelerates

Equity markets fell on Wednesday with the S&P 500 down 3.1%, extending the index’s losses to 9.4% since hitting an all-time closing high just a few weeks ago on 20 September. With today’s decline the S&P 500 has erased its price gain for the (...)

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Opinion European equities have room to rally

The strong rally in markets during the first three months of 2019 reversed the trend seen at the end of last year. The US Federal Open Market Committee’s March meeting confirmed that the Fed has moved from mobilising against an inflation overshoot to trying to correct the (...)

Focus

Opinion Psychology and smart beta

‘Smart beta’ sounds like an oxymoron. How smart can it be to continue using the same strategy in such fickle markets? A portfolio manager calling on all his skills (‘alpha’) in analysing market environments (the source of ‘beta’) should be able to outperform an unchanged (...)

Focus

Mory Doré’s column

Mory Doré’s views on monetary policy, asset allocation, financial management of banks and understanding of crises

Éclairages Économiques Notebook

The association Éclairages Économiques share with us analysis mostly relying on current research on various economics issues

Selection: Prospects

Regulation Regulatory prospects: 2012 and beyond

2009 was a year of intense reflection on the functioning of the financial sector. There followed an intense regulatory activity in 2010, unfortunately with few formal adoptions of regulations. 2011 marked the surge of the will to succeed with provisional schedules. Where do (...)

Reading An Economic Approach to Marriage

Marriages are not always very stable. A divorce rate of 50 % in developed countries serves to prove. We ask ourselves if it is possible to form stable relationships. An economic analysis may be able to answer this (...)

Note Aging population poses new opportunities for global investment managers

Early conclusions from ongoing SimCorp StrategyLab research point to demographic changes as a key factor influencing the future of the global investment management industry.

Note Launch of green bonds

The term «Green Bonds» is more frequently used to describe a market that should mature very fast in order to deal with numerous requests for investments in the field of green infrastructure projects.

Last commented articles

FR Opinion La Grece sauvée ? L’envers du décor
Read comments Update October 13,  17:00
Opinion Silver squeeze: What’s behind the surge in silver?
Read comments Update February 27,  18:00
FR Opinion Poisson d’avril sur les marchés
Read comments Update May 2019
FR Opinion Reprise des financières européennes
Read comments Update May 2019

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