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January 21

Opinion The difficult recomposition of the Executive Board of the ECB

On October 31, 2019, Mario Draghi’s term as President of the ECB will come to an end. Even though Mario Draghi’s personality has had a profound impact on the way the ECB communicates and therefore acts, it is important to point out that it is a small team within the ECB (...)

Opinion

A tale of two worlds: a robust business cycle in the US and a draining of liquidity in the rest of the world

Opinion

Normalising economies may mean moderate returns

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January 15

Opinion Accidental Americans Create Headache for French, European Banks

Boris Johnson, who was born in New York but left when he was five, found it outrageous that he was obliged to pay US taxes. The easy solution was to pay to renounce his US citizenship, which he did in 2016. Hundreds of other accidental Americans don’t have the luxury of such (...)

January 15

Opinion A modern-day War of the Roses

A modern-day War of the Roses: Is a real winner possible in the US-China trade war? In an era of globalization, trade wars mean losses for all sides

January 14

Opinion The Fed’s legacy will live on

The legacy of the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting promises to have lasting effects well into the new year. Once again, there were no surprises on the outcome for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) funds target following this (...)

December 2018

Opinion Brexit, Now What ?

Paul O’Connor, Head of Janus Henderson’s UK-based Multi-Asset Team, sifts through the highly complex range of Brexit scenarios following Theresa May’s survival as party leader.

December 2018

Opinion Rates going up...maybe not so fast

When examining the fixed income market outlook within the Euro zone, inevitably the discussion turns to Italy, and what the potential ramifications of this ongoing budget saga will be.

December 2018

Opinion Market outlook 2019

We believe that fears of a global slowdown are overdone, even though we are clearly past the peak in growth. Investor sentiment remains fragile and volatility high as fears about growth and political headlines keep markets on the back-foot. Yields have fallen on market woes, (...)

December 2018

Opinion Hedge Funds agree on where rates are going

November 2018

Opinion Financial Innovation: US banks steal a lead on European, Asian peers

In recent years, technological developments, new regulations and the rise of digital savvy millennials have combined to form an irreversible trend towards innovation in the global financial sector.

November 2018

Opinion A Tulip for London

We suspect the architects behind “the Tulip” are giving a nod to the famous European Tulip Mania of 1637. Even if the building is never completed, there may be no more fitting end to such a long trend toward positive social mood in the (...)

November 2018

Opinion ? Why MSCI ESG downgraded Nissan to ‘CCC’ for governance failures in September ‘18

MSCI ESG Research downgraded Nissan from ’B’ to ’CCC’ on September 10, 2018, the lowest industry-relative rating on the scale of ’CCC’ to ’AAA’. The downgrade was primarily attributed to systemic failures in governing its corporate (...)

November 2018

Opinion Reacting to the US mid-term election results

On the back of the election results, US and European equity futures are up about 1%, as one source of political uncertainty has been resolved. In our estimation, this reflects a market refocus on fundamentals that remain positive for equities, especially in the US, and will (...)

November 2018

Opinion US Mid Terms - Nothing really to see here

According to Nick Watson, Janus Henderson multi-asset team, from a markets perspective, Trump’s ability to provide the US economy and markets with further levels of stimulus and acceleration are likely to be constrained over the next two (...)

November 2018

Opinion Brexit update – the end of the beginning

Multiple sources suggest that UK and EU negotiators have reached a draft agreement on Britain’s terms for leaving the EU (the withdrawal agreement) including backstop mechanisms designed to ensure that Brexit does not create a hard border in Northern (...)

November 2018

Opinion Why we would start reweighting U.S. stock-pickers

We are past the peak of the U.S. earnings reports. In the past, any unusually high individual stock volatility after an earnings announcement was a pattern that only appeared at macro inflection points.

November 2018

Opinion Midterm Elections 2018: Surfing a Blue Wave

As you know, politics have become a major influence on the global economy and financial markets over the past few years (Brexit, the election of Donald Trump, the new Italian government). The upcoming midterm elections for the US Congress on 6 November are yet another (...)

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Opinion Accidental Americans Create Headache for French, European Banks

Boris Johnson, who was born in New York but left when he was five, found it outrageous that he was obliged to pay US taxes. The easy solution was to pay to renounce his US citizenship, which he did in 2016. Hundreds of other accidental Americans don’t have the luxury of such (...)

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Opinion Overview of Quantitative Finance in France

A short review of quantitative finance in France under the lens of the Next Finance website: Profile of quants, origins and outlook of the industry.

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Opinion A modern-day War of the Roses

A modern-day War of the Roses: Is a real winner possible in the US-China trade war? In an era of globalization, trade wars mean losses for all sides

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Opinion Fair trade, angel or demon ?

As citizens movements connect politically and economically, fair trade talks about itself. A fair and equitable trade, what is more decent in appearance ? But in order to determine the fair part of trade, we need beforehand to determine what we mean by this (...)

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Opinion Are french OAT overvalued ?

According to John Gilbert, CIO of the Berkshire Hathaway’s subsidiary General Re-New England AM, French 10-year bonds should yield between 4.5% and 5%, closer to Italian and Spanish bonds rather than German ones. However, This opinion is not shared by the majority of the (...)

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Opinion The Euro will survive, but not the current Euro zone !

If the existence of the euro is not challenged, it is the case of the euro zone in its current configuration. In the same way that cohabitation between countries with maintaining parity exchange had become impossible in the EMS, cohabitation has become impossible within (...)

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Opinion The Fed’s legacy will live on

The legacy of the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting promises to have lasting effects well into the new year. Once again, there were no surprises on the outcome for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) funds target following this (...)

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Opinion Anatomy of a dollar rally

In the era of Central Bank policy influence, we have become used to large shifts in the performance and trends of different currencies across time. For the better part of the past two years, the currency headlines have been dominated by a weakening US (...)

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Opinion Renminbi depreciation, an unexpected but welcome move

The depreciation of the Chinese currency took many investors by surprise. And a surprise it was, although not necessarily a negative one, says Victoria Mio.

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Opinion Do the layoffs at Crédit Agricole represent a sharp decline in French banks?

The layoffs have unquestionably impacted the personnel of the French banks but a greater malaise reigns. A top ranked outgoing senior executive considers the current situation as symbolizing an unprecedented weakening of French (...)

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Opinion Hedge Funds agree on where rates are going

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Opinion Has the selloff left scars on stock pickers and trend-followers?

Hedge funds strongly recovered from the selloff, with only two exceptions: i) the fixed income funds, flat this week, still isolated from the epicenter, and ii) neutral equity funds, still suffering from sector and factor rotations. This week, we checked if the selloff (...)

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Opinion The Euro will survive In fine !

We do not believe or at least most of the implosion scenarios of the euro zone regardless of the terms. -Not because we would be trying to find one or several sustainable solutions to the crisis of sovereign debt, but because such a process would cost too much to everybody (...)

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Opinion Quantitative Management: French Managers make resistance

Despite respectable performances, French quantitative managers are struggling to significantly increase their assets. Is it the fault of too cold local institutional?

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Opinion Hard time for sterling

According to Luc Luyet and Frederik Ducrozet, Asset Allocation & Macro Research, Pictet Wealth Management, the sharp drop of the sterling on Friday 7 October at the start of trading in Asia with the currency declining 6% in the course of twenty minutes was the climax of (...)

Focus

Opinion Psychology and smart beta

‘Smart beta’ sounds like an oxymoron. How smart can it be to continue using the same strategy in such fickle markets? A portfolio manager calling on all his skills (‘alpha’) in analysing market environments (the source of ‘beta’) should be able to outperform an unchanged (...)

Focus

Mory Doré’s column

Mory Doré’s views on monetary policy, asset allocation, financial management of banks and understanding of crises

Éclairages Économiques Notebook

The association Éclairages Économiques share with us analysis mostly relying on current research on various economics issues

Selection: Prospects

Regulation Regulatory prospects: 2012 and beyond

2009 was a year of intense reflection on the functioning of the financial sector. There followed an intense regulatory activity in 2010, unfortunately with few formal adoptions of regulations. 2011 marked the surge of the will to succeed with provisional schedules. Where do (...)

Reading An Economic Approach to Marriage

Marriages are not always very stable. A divorce rate of 50 % in developed countries serves to prove. We ask ourselves if it is possible to form stable relationships. An economic analysis may be able to answer this (...)

Note Aging population poses new opportunities for global investment managers

Early conclusions from ongoing SimCorp StrategyLab research point to demographic changes as a key factor influencing the future of the global investment management industry.

Note Launch of green bonds

The term «Green Bonds» is more frequently used to describe a market that should mature very fast in order to deal with numerous requests for investments in the field of green infrastructure projects.

Last commented articles

Opinion Accidental Americans Create Headache for French, European Banks
Read comments Update January 15,  11:07
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FR Opinion Le pouvoir des bénéfices
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FR Opinion Les Enjeux de la BFI en 2018
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