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May 19

Opinion Have emerging markets lost their mojo?

Emerging markets have never really been a wallflower in the world of capital market news. Even with this said, however, the past three years have been fairly extreme in terms of the range of events that have played out in the asset class, and the persistent and overwhelming (...)

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Burgers, beer and deflation fear: credit opportunities amid the chaos

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Post-Covid recovery packages must quicken the pace to net-zero carbon emissions

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March 2018

Opinion Scope welcomes European Commission’s Action Plan on sustainable finance

The European Commission’s sustainable finance plan is a step forward, in the view of Scope Public Finance. This contribution outlines Scope’s views on the distinct nature of ESG and sovereign risk, their areas of overlap, and next research (...)

March 2018

Opinion The Federal Reserve (Fed) did not disappoint at its March 21 meeting and tightened monetary policy by another 25 basis points (bps).

This move was widely anticipated and marks the sixth rate hike during the current tightening cycle—with more to come. Within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) text, the biggest change to the Fed’s statement was on the inflation front, where the timeframe for reaching (...)

March 2018

Opinion Amazon .vs. Alibaba - battle of the business models

Alibaba is often heralded as the Amazon of China, and in terms of online retail dominance, it is. The business models of the two businesses are however very different. Indeed, Alibaba doesn’t consider itself an ecommerce company at (...)

March 2018

Opinion South Africa: a ray of hope

Following weeks of contestation, Jacob Zuma resigned on 14 February 2018 after nine years in office, leaving a mixed legacy to South Africa’s new president, Cyril Ramaphosa.

March 2018

Opinion Fear of Inflation

The increase in inflation has been considered as one reason for the correction. Accelerating inflation is related to the tightening of central banks’ monetary policy and the rise in the interest rate level, which may be a burden on economies and equity (...)

March 2018

Opinion How realistic are return expectations really February 2018 ?

Equities and real estate can structually deliver returns in excess of economic growth, but within limits, says Robeco investors Lukas Daalder.

March 2018

Opinion Trump’s macroeconomic poison cocktail

According to Lukas Daalder, Chief Investment Officer of Robeco Investment Solutions, tax cuts set to raise US government and trade deficits higher • Tariff plans add a new flavor to an already toxic cocktail • Spare capacity will determine the fate of this (...)

March 2018

Opinion The ECB managed to deliver both a hawkish shift, and maintain a dovish stance

According to Andrew Mulliner, Portfolio Manager, Janus Henderson Investors Fixed Income Investment Strategy Group, the ECB managed to deliver both a hawkish shift, and maintain a dovish stance, at its meeting this (...)

March 2018

Opinion Steel Tariffs from Trump to tighten metal supply from China

The steel and aluminium tariffs instated by President Trump should tighten the supply of metal coming from China. As a serial overproducer, cutback from China will be welcome news and could even increase prices; China is already trying to reduce capacity in steel and (...)

March 2018

Opinion Hedge funds outperformed but the devil is in the details

The return of market volatility in February hurt equity markets significantly. For the first time in 15 months, the MSCI World ended the month in the red, down -3.5%, as EMU and Japanese markets underperformed.

March 2018

Opinion Europe’s Ugly Duckling Stocks Deserve More Love

Investors are looking at a very different Europe compared to one year ago. Even though Brexit talks are likely to drag on and Italy’s turbulent political environment is a potential wild card, political risk in Europe has eased (...)

March 2018

Opinion Valuation multiples for the S&P 500 remain near historic highs.

When it comes to valuing shares, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is a bit like the baloney sandwich of equity valuation. Wall Street’s finest might all know about more elegant, sophisticated and nutritious alternatives.

March 2018

Opinion Has the selloff left scars on stock pickers and trend-followers?

Hedge funds strongly recovered from the selloff, with only two exceptions: i) the fixed income funds, flat this week, still isolated from the epicenter, and ii) neutral equity funds, still suffering from sector and factor rotations. This week, we checked if the selloff (...)

February 2018

Opinion A united Korea: the investment perspective

As unlikely as it seems, and despite the recent isolationist rhetoric of North Korea’s Kim Jong-un, the 2018 Winter Olympics could witness the first steps towards the reunification of the Korean peninsula. Rivalled only by the coming together of East and West Germany in the (...)

February 2018

Opinion Germany, or even Europe, to be thrown into political turmoil ?

In the Netherlands, the moderates hold on to power. Then came the election of French President Emmanuel Macron and the decisive victory of his newly founded movement, La République en Marche, in the French general (...)

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Opinion Review of the chinese economy at the end of the summer of 2019

The monthly data published at the start of the second quarter are fairly mixed and show no tangible signs of growth momentum improving in China. The GDP published for the second quarter has recently confirmed this sentiment. The slowdown at work since the start of the decade (...)

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Opinion Impact of Covid-19: How did the nordic countries react?

The reaction to the virus outbreak was not one of denial at Nordic governments. The responses have been decisive, swift and wide to contain the first fall outs. Let’s take a firm look in the rear–mirror on what the Nordic countries looked like when the crises set (...)

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Opinion Accidental Americans Create Headache for French, European Banks

Boris Johnson, who was born in New York but left when he was five, found it outrageous that he was obliged to pay US taxes. The easy solution was to pay to renounce his US citizenship, which he did in 2016. Hundreds of other accidental Americans don’t have the luxury of such (...)

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Opinion What is “risk free” ?

Would it be conceivable that top-quality corporates can take over the baton of being the “risk free” investment of choice? Nestle default protection is cheaper than German sovereign protection and Wal-Mart default protection is cheaper than United States sovereign (...)

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Opinion Perspective and real solvency of banks

Can a universal bank go bankrupt ? An objective, rigorous and professional answer is built in three stages: credibility of the banks performed stress tests - assessment of prudential regulation to come - understanding the evolution of the banking business (...)

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Opinion Valuation multiples for the S&P 500 remain near historic highs.

When it comes to valuing shares, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is a bit like the baloney sandwich of equity valuation. Wall Street’s finest might all know about more elegant, sophisticated and nutritious alternatives.

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Opinion Are french OAT overvalued ?

According to John Gilbert, CIO of the Berkshire Hathaway’s subsidiary General Re-New England AM, French 10-year bonds should yield between 4.5% and 5%, closer to Italian and Spanish bonds rather than German ones. However, This opinion is not shared by the majority of the (...)

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Opinion On the uncertain future for money market funds

In the face of the low money market interest rates, returns offered by investments in money markets products have been declining steadily. While money market fund managers managed to turn in slightly positive performances in 2015, this could prove more daunting in (...)

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Opinion Is South Africa the Next Currency Crisis?

2018 has been marked by various emerging market crises. From Turkey to Argentina, confidence has eroded, resulting in bond and currency chaos. There is a growing focus on South Africa, and our analysis suggests that will (...)

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Opinion Hard time for sterling

According to Luc Luyet and Frederik Ducrozet, Asset Allocation & Macro Research, Pictet Wealth Management, the sharp drop of the sterling on Friday 7 October at the start of trading in Asia with the currency declining 6% in the course of twenty minutes was the climax of (...)

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Opinion Euro to gain reserve status and expand in the coming years

According to Michael Story, economist at Western Asset, while some peripheral European countries will be unable to escape restructuring their debt, the euro is unlikely to collapse any time soon as a result, and should in the short to medium term strengthen its position as a (...)

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Opinion How can Brexit impact HNWIs?

As Brexit’s uncertainty cascades to all aspects of the global economy, high net worth individuals (HNWIs) share with the nation a great deal of uncertainty, albeit of a slightly different variety.

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Opinion Overview of Quantitative Finance in France

A short review of quantitative finance in France under the lens of the Next Finance website: Profile of quants, origins and outlook of the industry.

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Opinion Anatomy of the European Banks Rout – AT1 bonds

European bank stocks have collapsed so far this year whilst their credit default swaps have risen rapidly. Surely the credit and equity markets are telling us something? – Europe’s nascent economic recovery is over? Negative rates are killing net interest margins? They don’t (...)

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Opinion Anatomy of a dollar rally

In the era of Central Bank policy influence, we have become used to large shifts in the performance and trends of different currencies across time. For the better part of the past two years, the currency headlines have been dominated by a weakening US (...)

Focus

Opinion Psychology and smart beta

‘Smart beta’ sounds like an oxymoron. How smart can it be to continue using the same strategy in such fickle markets? A portfolio manager calling on all his skills (‘alpha’) in analysing market environments (the source of ‘beta’) should be able to outperform an unchanged (...)

Focus

Mory Doré’s column

Mory Doré’s views on monetary policy, asset allocation, financial management of banks and understanding of crises

Éclairages Économiques Notebook

The association Éclairages Économiques share with us analysis mostly relying on current research on various economics issues

Selection: Prospects

Regulation Regulatory prospects: 2012 and beyond

2009 was a year of intense reflection on the functioning of the financial sector. There followed an intense regulatory activity in 2010, unfortunately with few formal adoptions of regulations. 2011 marked the surge of the will to succeed with provisional schedules. Where do (...)

Reading An Economic Approach to Marriage

Marriages are not always very stable. A divorce rate of 50 % in developed countries serves to prove. We ask ourselves if it is possible to form stable relationships. An economic analysis may be able to answer this (...)

Note Aging population poses new opportunities for global investment managers

Early conclusions from ongoing SimCorp StrategyLab research point to demographic changes as a key factor influencing the future of the global investment management industry.

Note Launch of green bonds

The term «Green Bonds» is more frequently used to describe a market that should mature very fast in order to deal with numerous requests for investments in the field of green infrastructure projects.

Last commented articles

FR Opinion Poisson d’avril sur les marchés
Read comments Update May 2019
FR Opinion Reprise des financières européennes
Read comments Update May 2019
FR Opinion Un bon sens partagé ?
Read comments Update March 2019
Opinion Accidental Americans Create Headache for French, European Banks
Read comments Update January 2019

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