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February 2024

Opinion Added Value in ABS

Investors are moving back into higher-rated fixed income after years of comparative neglect, and we noted that asset- and mortgage-backed securities (ABS and MBS) offered diversified risk exposures, together with relative value caused mainly by technical supply-and-demand (...)

Opinion

Reflections on Davos: Business as usual no longer exists

Opinion

Equities head for choppy ride as higher yield market takes hold

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October 2012

Opinion The conditions are there for gold to return to USD 2000/oz over the next six months

The expectation of new central bank action was favorable for gold, causing a renewed surge in its price. Securities purchases by the European and US monetary authorities should help to propel gold towards new records.

September 2012

Opinion Are french OAT overvalued ?

According to John Gilbert, CIO of the Berkshire Hathaway’s subsidiary General Re-New England AM, French 10-year bonds should yield between 4.5% and 5%, closer to Italian and Spanish bonds rather than German ones. However, This opinion is not shared by the majority of the (...)

August 2012

Opinion Beware the dangerous emerging market ‘grand narrative’

The emerging markets (EM) ‘grand narrative’ that you hear constantly churned out is at best misleading and at worst dangerous...

July 2012

Opinion Facebunds : "German bund market is overvalued"

If regulators think the Facebook IPO was a scandal, they should look at the German government bond market...

May 2012

Opinion Financial correlations and loss of common sense

Isn’t correlation in finance charlatanry? We analyze this question through 4 situations that have been observed on financial markets with final investors, asset managers and proprietary traders.

April 2012

Opinion Risk free assets ?

But what is safe? Is it the AAA or AA rating provided by rating agencies such as S&P and Moody’s? Does “safe” equal goodwill bonds issued by sovereign countries such as France, Japan, the United Kingdom or the United States? (...)

March 2012

Opinion Robots have taken power in finance

Describe the real world with numbers is a trend that seems to be accelerating. Thus, digital technology is associated with financial models to show that we (human) interact with our environment using mathematical (...)

March 2012

Opinion LTRO – game changer or not?

The ECB announced its second long-term refinancing operation (LTRO) on Wednesday. The auction led to 800 banks tapping the ECB for EUR 530bn in three year funding at 1%.

March 2012

Opinion The Euro will survive, but not the current Euro zone !

If the existence of the euro is not challenged, it is the case of the euro zone in its current configuration. In the same way that cohabitation between countries with maintaining parity exchange had become impossible in the EMS, cohabitation has become impossible within (...)

March 2012

Opinion ING IM predicts a strong year for High Yield

The current attractive yield of 7 to 8% in combination with solid company credit fundamentals continues to attract new investors into the asset class.

February 2012

Opinion A New Hope

There is little doubt that dark clouds are still drifting on the horizon of the global economy. The Euro crisis still has the potential to erupt into an existential threat for the Eurozone’s economic system with a very destabilizing fall-out for the financial system in the (...)

January 2012

Opinion Putting a number on the Dragon

According to statistics from the Quantitative Guru of JP Morgan AM, the year of the Dragon will tend to be a year of prosperity for US equities with an average performance of 8,3% for the 11 years of the Dragon during this period of 140 years with an annual volatility of (...)

December 2011

Opinion The Euro will survive In fine !

We do not believe or at least most of the implosion scenarios of the euro zone regardless of the terms. -Not because we would be trying to find one or several sustainable solutions to the crisis of sovereign debt, but because such a process would cost too much to everybody (...)

December 2011

Opinion 2012: A year in global bonds

According to Bob Jolly, Schroders’ Head of Global Macro, considerable bad news is already in prices and corporate bonds issued by strong companies with cash on their balance sheet and pricing power remain attractive

December 2011

Opinion Russia is not Egypt (yet)

After Egypt, Russia is the second country where capital flight has been significant this year. Now Russia has a tradition of strong capital flight. Ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union, there have been only a few quarters without a net capital (...)

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Opinion Hedge funds managers : Are women better than men?

In recent months, two studies leading to the same conclusions, set tongues wagging in the hedge fund industry : women hedge fund managers perform better than their male counterparts...

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Opinion New Egypt FX Regime Positive Step in Tough Circumstances

Egypt’s new exchange rate regime has brought greater transparency and a depreciation of the pound but also highlights a serious shortage of foreign exchange, Fitch Ratings says. For the system to work, confidence needs to be restored quickly, starting with agreement on an IMF (...)

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Opinion Renminbi depreciation, an unexpected but welcome move

The depreciation of the Chinese currency took many investors by surprise. And a surprise it was, although not necessarily a negative one, says Victoria Mio.

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Opinion Perspectives on L/S Equity strategies after the Selloff

Risk assets have yet to find stable ground after the recent turmoil. The rebound in equities since the October 11th trough appears fragile. Last week, the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting were hawkish and Italy’s 10-year sovereign spread with Germany jumped to levels unseen (...)

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Opinion Bond bubble today and tomorrow ... Bond crash the day after tomorrow

Long-term rates that can not rise on short term, despite the abysmal public deficits ...

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Opinion Central Banks : the global financial system trashcans ?

Institutionalized monetization condemns central banks to become the international financial system trashcans and, despite German opposition, it is likely to be the same for the ECB.

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Opinion Staying On Theme

When inflation, interest rates and global economic uncertainty are rising, cash today can seem more urgent than exposure to the markets of tomorrow—but could that mean investors risk missing out on the potential of thematic (...)

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Opinion Italy’s expansionary budget goals add to growing risks to sovereign rating

Italy’s announcement of a tentative budget deficit goal of 2.4% of GDP over 2019-2021 could compound the country’s existing debt sustainability challenges. This represents a significant risk to Italy’s A-/Negative Outlook (...)

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Opinion The oil has gone into negative territory

Yesterday was a historical day in the oil market. The American market, called West Texas Intermediate (WTI), moved to minus USD40—a fantastic move. The reason for this is likely connected to storage issues as people are consuming far less fuel amid the (...)

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Opinion Brexit referendum: more volatility ahead for Sterling

According to James Butterfill, Head of Research at ETF Securities comments, Brexit is the mother of all market uncertainties: legal, political, economic, polling and currency risk combining to make any confidence about the short-term outlook (...)

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Opinion Greece: awaiting the inevitable

The credit default swap market is pricing in a 65% probability of a default within the next five years.

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Opinion Gold, Mines & Natural Resources…a mixed 2017

Although the year was positive for natural resources overall, their performance lagged the global markets. 2018 could offer better prospects, an uptick in inflation being perhaps the best scenario for the theme.

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Opinion Silver squeeze: What’s behind the surge in silver?

Silver is in the spotlight this week, after the popular r/WallStreetBets community on Reddit highlighted the fundamental value in acquiring silver at current levels. The online posting was the catalyst for increased retail flows and awareness. Last Thursday 28 January, the (...)

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Opinion For the BJP

The results of the world’s largest general election were announced today after 6 weeks of voting, with around 900m registered voters casting their ballot across 543 constituencies. The incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won a majority of seats, which means that Modi will (...)

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Opinion ECB worries have receded, but Fed policy doubts have some pundits on the defensive

Focus

Opinion Psychology and smart beta

‘Smart beta’ sounds like an oxymoron. How smart can it be to continue using the same strategy in such fickle markets? A portfolio manager calling on all his skills (‘alpha’) in analysing market environments (the source of ‘beta’) should be able to outperform an unchanged (...)

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Mory Doré’s column

Mory Doré’s views on monetary policy, asset allocation, financial management of banks and understanding of crises

Éclairages Économiques Notebook

The association Éclairages Économiques share with us analysis mostly relying on current research on various economics issues

Selection: Prospects

Regulation Regulatory prospects: 2012 and beyond

2009 was a year of intense reflection on the functioning of the financial sector. There followed an intense regulatory activity in 2010, unfortunately with few formal adoptions of regulations. 2011 marked the surge of the will to succeed with provisional schedules. Where do (...)

Reading An Economic Approach to Marriage

Marriages are not always very stable. A divorce rate of 50 % in developed countries serves to prove. We ask ourselves if it is possible to form stable relationships. An economic analysis may be able to answer this (...)

Note Aging population poses new opportunities for global investment managers

Early conclusions from ongoing SimCorp StrategyLab research point to demographic changes as a key factor influencing the future of the global investment management industry.

Note Launch of green bonds

The term «Green Bonds» is more frequently used to describe a market that should mature very fast in order to deal with numerous requests for investments in the field of green infrastructure projects.

Last commented articles

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Opinion Silver squeeze: What’s behind the surge in silver?
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