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May 19

Opinion Have emerging markets lost their mojo?

Emerging markets have never really been a wallflower in the world of capital market news. Even with this said, however, the past three years have been fairly extreme in terms of the range of events that have played out in the asset class, and the persistent and overwhelming (...)

Opinion

Burgers, beer and deflation fear: credit opportunities amid the chaos

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Post-Covid recovery packages must quicken the pace to net-zero carbon emissions

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October 2018

Opinion US stocks plunge in tech-fueled rout

On Wednesday, US stocks fell dramatically, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling more than 800 points. The rout was led by technology stocks, with the NASDAQ Composite Index down 316 points, but all sectors experienced losses. This was the worst one-day sell-off for (...)

October 2018

Opinion Eye on America as global liquidity dries up

US economic growth should hold up even as quantitative tightening continues to take its toll in emerging markets, Europe grapples with ongoing structural issues and the UK is hamstrung by Brexit, according to Talib Sheikh, manager of the Jupiter Flexible Income Fund. “In (...)

October 2018

Opinion U.S. Economy: "Historically Rare"

Fed Chairman Powell reiterated the FOMC’s view of the economy as unusually favorable; Argentina has made some gains, courtesy of the IMF; Italy’s latest budget is still a work in progress.

October 2018

Opinion Italy’s expansionary budget goals add to growing risks to sovereign rating

Italy’s announcement of a tentative budget deficit goal of 2.4% of GDP over 2019-2021 could compound the country’s existing debt sustainability challenges. This represents a significant risk to Italy’s A-/Negative Outlook (...)

September 2018

Opinion What happened to hedge funds’alpha since the summer?

While hedge fund performance and alpha were honorable until the summer, our analysis suggests that they erased about 2.5% of alpha since June, with no turn in sight yet in September.

September 2018

Opinion Escaping Lehman’s shadow

Financial markets have staged a remarkable recovery since the fall of Lehman Brothers, but it’s been a joyless affair,” says Vice Chairman Edward Bonham Carter. “The ending of central bank support, both feared and wanted, hangs like a sword of Damocles over the (...)

September 2018

Opinion Is South Africa the Next Currency Crisis?

2018 has been marked by various emerging market crises. From Turkey to Argentina, confidence has eroded, resulting in bond and currency chaos. There is a growing focus on South Africa, and our analysis suggests that will (...)

September 2018

Opinion Lehman: 10 Years After

It’s often said that you should never let a good crisis go to waste. As we approach the 10-year anniversary of the seminal event of the Global Financial Crisis – the collapse of Lehman Brothers – investors may wonder if we’ve learned anything from past mistakes. Through the (...)

September 2018

Opinion Getting to the Truth on Trade, and Yes, Ricardo Can Still Rest In Peace

Trade volumes, trade agreements, and tariffs have been the focus of capital markets over the last year. Capital markets have taken the existing unencumbered trade regime as a given, and priced in the continuation of the existing order of ever-expanding trade and lower (...)

September 2018

Opinion Greece: the end of bailout program

The end of the Greek bailout program on Aug 20 bears both virtues and risks. While the country is regaining some fiscal room of manoeuvre, there is no longer any additional precautionary funding scheme in place, which means Greece is now reliant on financial market funding (...)

August 2018

Opinion After the fall

Emerging market bonds have suffered in recent months, but according to Alain-Nsiona Defise, Head of Emerging Corporates, Mary-Therese Barton, Head of Emerging Market Debt at Pictet Asset Management, fears of a renewed currency and debt crunch are (...)

July 2018

Opinion What alikely NXP-Qcomdeal break means for merger arbitrage

Market conditions have been supportive since early July, but the flattening of the Treasury curve raises questions about the probability of a U.S. recession next year. Fund manager surveys suggest investors have erred on the side of caution (...)

July 2018

Opinion US fixed income: Buying opportunity or a falling knife?

10 year US Treasury yields crossed the psychologically important 3% threshold in the 2nd quarter, the highest level in four years - buying opportunity or a falling knife? Given these critical levels and an uptick in US inflation, investors are justifiably worried about (...)

June 2018

Opinion ECB: Bold is beautiful

President Mario Draghi took a bold stance at the ECB press conference on Thursday. Not only did Draghi announce the timeframe for ending the asset purchase programme in 2018 but he also provided forward guidance on the unlikelihood of an interest rate hike until the summer (...)

June 2018

Opinion Polarisation in the luxury space

GAM’s Scilla Huang Sun evaluates some interesting trends in the luxury market and explains why this is a sector in which active management can add considerable value

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Opinion Review of the chinese economy at the end of the summer of 2019

The monthly data published at the start of the second quarter are fairly mixed and show no tangible signs of growth momentum improving in China. The GDP published for the second quarter has recently confirmed this sentiment. The slowdown at work since the start of the decade (...)

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Opinion Impact of Covid-19: How did the nordic countries react?

The reaction to the virus outbreak was not one of denial at Nordic governments. The responses have been decisive, swift and wide to contain the first fall outs. Let’s take a firm look in the rear–mirror on what the Nordic countries looked like when the crises set (...)

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Opinion Accidental Americans Create Headache for French, European Banks

Boris Johnson, who was born in New York but left when he was five, found it outrageous that he was obliged to pay US taxes. The easy solution was to pay to renounce his US citizenship, which he did in 2016. Hundreds of other accidental Americans don’t have the luxury of such (...)

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Opinion What is “risk free” ?

Would it be conceivable that top-quality corporates can take over the baton of being the “risk free” investment of choice? Nestle default protection is cheaper than German sovereign protection and Wal-Mart default protection is cheaper than United States sovereign (...)

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Opinion Perspective and real solvency of banks

Can a universal bank go bankrupt ? An objective, rigorous and professional answer is built in three stages: credibility of the banks performed stress tests - assessment of prudential regulation to come - understanding the evolution of the banking business (...)

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Opinion Valuation multiples for the S&P 500 remain near historic highs.

When it comes to valuing shares, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is a bit like the baloney sandwich of equity valuation. Wall Street’s finest might all know about more elegant, sophisticated and nutritious alternatives.

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Opinion Are french OAT overvalued ?

According to John Gilbert, CIO of the Berkshire Hathaway’s subsidiary General Re-New England AM, French 10-year bonds should yield between 4.5% and 5%, closer to Italian and Spanish bonds rather than German ones. However, This opinion is not shared by the majority of the (...)

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Opinion On the uncertain future for money market funds

In the face of the low money market interest rates, returns offered by investments in money markets products have been declining steadily. While money market fund managers managed to turn in slightly positive performances in 2015, this could prove more daunting in (...)

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Opinion Is South Africa the Next Currency Crisis?

2018 has been marked by various emerging market crises. From Turkey to Argentina, confidence has eroded, resulting in bond and currency chaos. There is a growing focus on South Africa, and our analysis suggests that will (...)

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Opinion Hard time for sterling

According to Luc Luyet and Frederik Ducrozet, Asset Allocation & Macro Research, Pictet Wealth Management, the sharp drop of the sterling on Friday 7 October at the start of trading in Asia with the currency declining 6% in the course of twenty minutes was the climax of (...)

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Opinion Euro to gain reserve status and expand in the coming years

According to Michael Story, economist at Western Asset, while some peripheral European countries will be unable to escape restructuring their debt, the euro is unlikely to collapse any time soon as a result, and should in the short to medium term strengthen its position as a (...)

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Opinion How can Brexit impact HNWIs?

As Brexit’s uncertainty cascades to all aspects of the global economy, high net worth individuals (HNWIs) share with the nation a great deal of uncertainty, albeit of a slightly different variety.

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Opinion Overview of Quantitative Finance in France

A short review of quantitative finance in France under the lens of the Next Finance website: Profile of quants, origins and outlook of the industry.

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Opinion Anatomy of the European Banks Rout – AT1 bonds

European bank stocks have collapsed so far this year whilst their credit default swaps have risen rapidly. Surely the credit and equity markets are telling us something? – Europe’s nascent economic recovery is over? Negative rates are killing net interest margins? They don’t (...)

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Opinion Anatomy of a dollar rally

In the era of Central Bank policy influence, we have become used to large shifts in the performance and trends of different currencies across time. For the better part of the past two years, the currency headlines have been dominated by a weakening US (...)

Focus

Opinion Psychology and smart beta

‘Smart beta’ sounds like an oxymoron. How smart can it be to continue using the same strategy in such fickle markets? A portfolio manager calling on all his skills (‘alpha’) in analysing market environments (the source of ‘beta’) should be able to outperform an unchanged (...)

Focus

Mory Doré’s column

Mory Doré’s views on monetary policy, asset allocation, financial management of banks and understanding of crises

Éclairages Économiques Notebook

The association Éclairages Économiques share with us analysis mostly relying on current research on various economics issues

Selection: Prospects

Regulation Regulatory prospects: 2012 and beyond

2009 was a year of intense reflection on the functioning of the financial sector. There followed an intense regulatory activity in 2010, unfortunately with few formal adoptions of regulations. 2011 marked the surge of the will to succeed with provisional schedules. Where do (...)

Reading An Economic Approach to Marriage

Marriages are not always very stable. A divorce rate of 50 % in developed countries serves to prove. We ask ourselves if it is possible to form stable relationships. An economic analysis may be able to answer this (...)

Note Aging population poses new opportunities for global investment managers

Early conclusions from ongoing SimCorp StrategyLab research point to demographic changes as a key factor influencing the future of the global investment management industry.

Note Launch of green bonds

The term «Green Bonds» is more frequently used to describe a market that should mature very fast in order to deal with numerous requests for investments in the field of green infrastructure projects.

Last commented articles

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Opinion Accidental Americans Create Headache for French, European Banks
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