May 2017
Opinion Emmanuel Macron has been elected President of France: what is the outlook for the markets?
The second round of the French presidential elections has led to victory for Emmanuel Macron, who achieved more than 66% of votes. This result marks a clear watershed with traditional French politics over the past 50 years, as it is the first time that none of the mainstream (...)
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May 2017
Opinion The French election represents a win for EU continuity and integration.
According to David Lafferty, Chief strategist, Natixis Global Asset Management, the French election represents a win for EU continuity and integration. As Le Pen risk passes, the next hurdle for the EU project is likely to be the Italian banks which remain mired in (...)
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May 2017
Opinion France election: Macron wins big
The French election result confirms our view that markets until recently had overstated European political risks. Italian political risk and the country’s fragile banking system could move back into focus soon, however, particularly if the likelihood of early elections in (...)
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May 2017
Opinion French election 2017: Markets march on
The centrist candidate’s victory is seen as a positive for European stability, something which supports the global reflation trend that has been building up since last summer. Economic data in Europe, Asia and the US has been improving, underpinning traditional risk assets, (...)
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May 2017
Opinion Government bonds: caution ahead
Geopolitical forces suppressing global government bond yields have somewhat dissipated after the French first-round vote. We see Fed rate rise expectations returning as a bond market driver, justifying a cautious stance on sovereign (...)
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April 2017
Opinion French elections : Europe lives on !
“The results from the first round of vote counting strengthen our confidence that, from this summer, France will have a president in favor of reforms for the first time.” Comments from Stefan Kreuzkamp, Chief investment Officer Deutsche Asset (...)
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April 2017
Opinion French Elections: What would Macron’s victory mean for markets?
According to Philip Dicken, Head of European Equities and Francis Ellison Client Portfolio Manager, European Equities at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, if Emmanuel Macron were elected, the environment would suit active investors and reinforce their potential to find (...)
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April 2017
Opinion French elections – Place your bets, last call
While a moderate candidate is the most likely victor in our assessment, the situation remains fluid with little risk priced in. In such an environment, we believe it is important to protect investors in our multi asset portfolios from market shocks. We have tactically (...)
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April 2017
Opinion Room to run for reflationary assets
Most reflation trades aren’t crowded or expensive, our research suggests. U.S. stock prices more fully reflect the maturing reflationary cycle, and we see better opportunities in Europe, Japan and EM stocks. We also prefer U.S. credit over government (...)
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April 2017
Opinion Mind the “Trump gap”
Ariel Bezalel, Head of Strategy, Fixed Income, explains his caution on the Trump administration’s ability to deliver fiscal reforms, and why he has increased the duration in his funds for the first time since cutting it last (...)
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April 2017
Opinion Why US stock market pull back is justified
According to Toby Nangle, Global Co-Head of Asset Allocation, Head of MultiAsset, EMEA and Maya Bhandari, Portfolio Manager, Multi-Asset, Columbia Threadneedle reduces weighting to US equities from neutral to underweight in multi-asset (...)
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March 2017
Opinion Dear US equities …
As shown by the correlation between the risk premium and productivity trend growth, the current 5.9% risk premium anticipates a return to productivity gains at 3%, which is the level we saw during the dot com boom at the end of the (...)
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March 2017
Opinion Populists disappointed as markets welcome Dutch election outcome
According to Lukas Daalder, CIO Robeco Investment Solutions & Léon Cornelissen, Chief Economist at RobecoHaving said that, we should not overstate the impact: the rate hike that the US Federal Reserve administered yesterday has been the more dominant factor in financial (...)
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March 2017
Opinion Show Me The Money
The U.S. and indeed the global economy is walking a fine line due to increasing leverage and the potential for too high (or too low) interest rates to wreak havoc on an increasingly stressed financial system. Be more concerned about the return of your money than the return (...)
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March 2017
Opinion Happiness Runs
A client asked me recently when the Fed or other central banks would ever be able to sell their assets back into the market. My answer was "NEVER". A $12 trillion global central bank balance sheet is PERMANENT - and growing at over $1 trillion a year, thanks to the ECB and (...)
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