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February 2024

Opinion Added Value in ABS

Investors are moving back into higher-rated fixed income after years of comparative neglect, and we noted that asset- and mortgage-backed securities (ABS and MBS) offered diversified risk exposures, together with relative value caused mainly by technical supply-and-demand (...)

Opinion

Reflections on Davos: Business as usual no longer exists

Opinion

Equities head for choppy ride as higher yield market takes hold

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February 2016

Opinion Latest BoJ currency war salvo unlikely to be effective

According to Simon Ward, Chief Economist, Henderson Global Investors, the Bank of Japan’s surprise decision to introduce a negative interest rate on the top tier of banks’ reserve holdings recalls the famous Beyond the Fringe sketch in which Peter Cook’s squadron leader (...)

January 2016

Opinion The US rate rise is symbolic

Sebastian Radcliffe, manager of the Jupiter North American Income Fund, comments on the decision by the US Federal Reserve to increase interest rates for the first time since 2006

January 2016

Opinion The More Things Change …

For all that happened in 2015, one has to wonder if it will be lost in the textbooks as a pretty uneventful year. Sure it was the year of Ukraine, the Volkswagen scandal, “Unicorns”, ISIS, China’s slowdown, Fed “liftoff”, and another chapter in the Greece drama, but what really (...)

January 2016

Opinion European Equity Market : Outlook 2016

We live in extraordinary times. The distortions caused by quantitative easing and near zero interest rate policies have been felt in just about every asset class...

January 2016

Opinion 2016 Fixed Income Outlook

For some time, commentators have been itching to call the top of the great bond bull market. They point to improving economic conditions in the developed economies, a tightening US labour market and a long-awaited normalisation of interest rate policy after many years of (...)

January 2016

Opinion Global Emerging Markets Equity 2016 Outlook

According to Ross Teverson, Head of Global Emerging Markets, finally, it is worth noting that, today, emerging market valuations - in terms of price to book ratios - are relatively depressed versus history. At times when valuations have been at or around these levels, strong (...)

January 2016

Opinion China at crossroads

According to Aninda Mitra, senior sovereign analyst at Standish Mellon Asset Management, the International Monetary Fund’s in-principle acceptance of the CNY in the SDR basket is, in our view, an important step in cementing the process of greater medium-term capital account (...)

January 2016

Opinion 2016 could be difficult for markets

According to Paul Markham, global equities portfolio manager at Newton Investment Management, for an overall outlook on equities, it’s too early to tell whether a bad start to the year can be a sign that 2016 will be problematic. However it is true that leadership of markets (...)

January 2016

Opinion SNL Financial: Will Equities Still Boom and FICC suffer in 2016?

SNL Financial data shows how equities and M&A success have helped investment banks offset pain in fixed income, currencies and commodities (FICC) through the first nine months of 2015, a trend they may well need to continue in (...)

January 2016

Opinion 2016 Market Outlook: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research Forecasts the Return of Value Investing on Rising Rates, Risks and Earnings

Glass Half-Full: Bullish on Stocks, Not Sectors; Year of Modest Global Growth: U.S. Grows, China Slows and Brazil Contracts; More Volatility as Monetary Policies Diverge, Rates and Regulations Collide

December 2015

Opinion Finally the Fed rate hike is there

After a year of talking about it we finally got it. The Fed starts hiking rates for the first time in more than 9 years. It has been long anticipated, so one has to wonder what it will actually mean if everybody had so much time to prepare for it. Probably not too much (...)

December 2015

Opinion The ‘Road to Paris’: this time is different

With only a few weeks to go until the start of the UN Climate Change Conference in Paris, Charlie Thomas, Head of Strategy, Environmental Investment, is optimistic about the talks.

November 2015

Opinion Multi-asset strategies offer an alternative in liquidity driven markets

One of the key reasons which makes multi-asset investing attractive are the generally low yields. As a result of the global financial crisis, central banks around the world have lowered their key interest rates and engaged in unconventional easing measures. In this (...)

November 2015

Opinion Bond yields are heading up

According to Christophe Donay, Chief Strategist at Pictet Wealth Management, Bond yields are heading up. The rebound in equity markets since the beginning of October, looks largely played out, with further gains dependant on a turnaround in earnings forecasts. Yields on DM (...)

November 2015

Opinion The great bond bull market is not over

Despite talk of a ‘great normalisation’ of monetary policy, persistent deflationary pressures mean global interest rates are set to stay lower for longer, according to Ariel Bezalel, manager of the Jupiter Dynamic Bond (...)

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Opinion Italy’s expansionary budget goals add to growing risks to sovereign rating

Italy’s announcement of a tentative budget deficit goal of 2.4% of GDP over 2019-2021 could compound the country’s existing debt sustainability challenges. This represents a significant risk to Italy’s A-/Negative Outlook (...)

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Opinion Hedge funds managers : Are women better than men?

In recent months, two studies leading to the same conclusions, set tongues wagging in the hedge fund industry : women hedge fund managers perform better than their male counterparts...

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Opinion Review of the chinese economy at the end of the summer of 2019

The monthly data published at the start of the second quarter are fairly mixed and show no tangible signs of growth momentum improving in China. The GDP published for the second quarter has recently confirmed this sentiment. The slowdown at work since the start of the decade (...)

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Opinion New Egypt FX Regime Positive Step in Tough Circumstances

Egypt’s new exchange rate regime has brought greater transparency and a depreciation of the pound but also highlights a serious shortage of foreign exchange, Fitch Ratings says. For the system to work, confidence needs to be restored quickly, starting with agreement on an IMF (...)

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Opinion Renminbi depreciation, an unexpected but welcome move

The depreciation of the Chinese currency took many investors by surprise. And a surprise it was, although not necessarily a negative one, says Victoria Mio.

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Opinion Perspectives on L/S Equity strategies after the Selloff

Risk assets have yet to find stable ground after the recent turmoil. The rebound in equities since the October 11th trough appears fragile. Last week, the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting were hawkish and Italy’s 10-year sovereign spread with Germany jumped to levels unseen (...)

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Opinion Bond bubble today and tomorrow ... Bond crash the day after tomorrow

Long-term rates that can not rise on short term, despite the abysmal public deficits ...

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Opinion Central Banks : the global financial system trashcans ?

Institutionalized monetization condemns central banks to become the international financial system trashcans and, despite German opposition, it is likely to be the same for the ECB.

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Opinion Staying On Theme

When inflation, interest rates and global economic uncertainty are rising, cash today can seem more urgent than exposure to the markets of tomorrow—but could that mean investors risk missing out on the potential of thematic (...)

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Opinion The oil has gone into negative territory

Yesterday was a historical day in the oil market. The American market, called West Texas Intermediate (WTI), moved to minus USD40—a fantastic move. The reason for this is likely connected to storage issues as people are consuming far less fuel amid the (...)

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Opinion Brexit referendum: more volatility ahead for Sterling

According to James Butterfill, Head of Research at ETF Securities comments, Brexit is the mother of all market uncertainties: legal, political, economic, polling and currency risk combining to make any confidence about the short-term outlook (...)

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Opinion Greece: awaiting the inevitable

The credit default swap market is pricing in a 65% probability of a default within the next five years.

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Opinion Gold, Mines & Natural Resources…a mixed 2017

Although the year was positive for natural resources overall, their performance lagged the global markets. 2018 could offer better prospects, an uptick in inflation being perhaps the best scenario for the theme.

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Opinion Total Return Futures set for further growth as buy-side adoption increases

Eurex launched Total Return Futures (TRFs) in 2016 in response to growing demand for listed alternatives to total return swaps. Since then, the product has evolved into an instrument used by a wide variety of firms for multiple purposes, enabling firms to lock in financing (...)

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Opinion Silver squeeze: What’s behind the surge in silver?

Silver is in the spotlight this week, after the popular r/WallStreetBets community on Reddit highlighted the fundamental value in acquiring silver at current levels. The online posting was the catalyst for increased retail flows and awareness. Last Thursday 28 January, the (...)

Focus

Opinion Psychology and smart beta

‘Smart beta’ sounds like an oxymoron. How smart can it be to continue using the same strategy in such fickle markets? A portfolio manager calling on all his skills (‘alpha’) in analysing market environments (the source of ‘beta’) should be able to outperform an unchanged (...)

Focus

Mory Doré’s column

Mory Doré’s views on monetary policy, asset allocation, financial management of banks and understanding of crises

Éclairages Économiques Notebook

The association Éclairages Économiques share with us analysis mostly relying on current research on various economics issues

Selection: Prospects

Regulation Regulatory prospects: 2012 and beyond

2009 was a year of intense reflection on the functioning of the financial sector. There followed an intense regulatory activity in 2010, unfortunately with few formal adoptions of regulations. 2011 marked the surge of the will to succeed with provisional schedules. Where do (...)

Reading An Economic Approach to Marriage

Marriages are not always very stable. A divorce rate of 50 % in developed countries serves to prove. We ask ourselves if it is possible to form stable relationships. An economic analysis may be able to answer this (...)

Note Aging population poses new opportunities for global investment managers

Early conclusions from ongoing SimCorp StrategyLab research point to demographic changes as a key factor influencing the future of the global investment management industry.

Note Launch of green bonds

The term «Green Bonds» is more frequently used to describe a market that should mature very fast in order to deal with numerous requests for investments in the field of green infrastructure projects.

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