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February 2024

Opinion Added Value in ABS

Investors are moving back into higher-rated fixed income after years of comparative neglect, and we noted that asset- and mortgage-backed securities (ABS and MBS) offered diversified risk exposures, together with relative value caused mainly by technical supply-and-demand (...)

Opinion

Reflections on Davos: Business as usual no longer exists

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Equities head for choppy ride as higher yield market takes hold

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October 2016

Opinion Rethinking the role of Treasuries

According to Richard Turnill, BlackRock’s Global Chief Investment Strategist, it’s time to rethink the role of U.S. Treasuries in portfolios, and specifically to be cautious of long-duration Treasuries. The risk-reward landscape for longduration Treasuries is (...)

September 2016

Opinion Easy money: Could the cure be more damaging than the illness itself?

Given the economic and political headwinds and shocks we have experienced in the first six months of 2016, the summer could easily have been characterised by uncertainty and volatility.

September 2016

Opinion Combining différent styles for risk premia strategies

According to Ronen Israel, principal at AQR Capital Management, four investment “styles” — Value, Momentum, Carry and Defensive — have emerged as compelling sources of alternative returns, backed by economic theory and decades of data across geographies and asset (...)

September 2016

Opinion Central Banks and the Definition of Insanity

It is often said that that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. This appears to be a lesson that central bankers have been unable – or unwilling – to (...)

September 2016

Opinion What is the outlook for oil prices?

Oil prices have been fluctuating widely this summer. Such volatility adds to the uncertainty facing consumer and businesses and raises doubts about future oil prices. Analysis by Jeanne Asseraf-Bitton, Head of Lyxor Cross Asset (...)

August 2016

Opinion Wanted: earnings growth

Global stocks are up year-to-date, having shaken off worries about the strength of the global economy in the wake of the UK’s Brexit vote. But we believe further gains require a meaningful improvement in corporate earnings, particularly in developed (...)

August 2016

Opinion Deposit balances will rise in the UK despite interest rate cut

According to Bartosz Golba, Senior Analyst for Wealth Management at Verdict Financial, Despite the initial turmoil caused by the UK’s vote to leave the EU, the value of UK individuals’ savings and investments will not decrease significantly in the long (...)

July 2016

Opinion Interest rates: Brexit and term premiums

Since the announcement of the vote for Brexit at the UK referendum, long-term interest rates have plunged to record lows across all major currencies. The US 10-year interest rate hit an all-time low of 1.32% on July 6, before rebounding to 1.47% on July 12. But are these (...)

July 2016

Opinion LSE and Deutsche Borse Merger: The True Cost of the Deal

According to John Colley, a Professor of Practice at Warwick Business School who is an expert on mega mergers, the 75% vote requirement had to be lowered to 60% to ensure the deal was passed, an indication of how keen CEO Carsten Kengeter and the Deutsche Borse board are on (...)

July 2016

Opinion BlackRock Investment Institute’s Mid-Year 2016 Global Investment Outlook

More volatility looms for the global markets, torn between anxiety over the fallout of the UK’s vote to exit the European Union (Brexit) and the prospect of a strengthening U.S. economy, according to the BlackRock Investment Institute’s Mid-Year 2016 Global Investment (...)

July 2016

Opinion Stock markets are too complacent about Brexit aftermath

Stock markets are too complacent about the potential consequences of the UK’s historic vote to leave the EU, says Robeco’s Lukas Daalder.

July 2016

Opinion Brexit illustrates the diversification benefits of trend-following strategies

During the Brexit, the average CTA did very well: the SG Trend Index, a performance indicator for trend-following strategies, jumped 2.9% on 24 June. Trend-following strategies outperformed both equities, with the MSCI World Index dropping 4.9%, and hedge funds in general, (...)

July 2016

Opinion EM and the UK referendum

GAM Investment Director Paul McNamara looks at the impact of Britian’s surprise ‘leave’ vote on emerging market debt. In his view EM fundamentals have improved materially over the past three years, and a turn in the credit cycle could cause EM growth to pick up by the end of (...)

July 2016

Opinion Maybe Brexit won’t break Britain (and the world)

The British electorate’s decision to leave the European Union in the June referendum has roiled markets worldwide. It has clouded prospects for the UK and world economies, and threatens the future of the European (...)

July 2016

Opinion How can Brexit impact HNWIs?

As Brexit’s uncertainty cascades to all aspects of the global economy, high net worth individuals (HNWIs) share with the nation a great deal of uncertainty, albeit of a slightly different variety.

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Opinion Don’t cry for Argentina

In accordance with the Right Upon Future Offers or RUFO clause (similar to a conventional clause requiring creditors to be treated pari passu) contained in the 2005 agreement on the restructuring of the debt of the exchange bondholders (preventing Argentina from making more (...)

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Opinion What happened to hedge funds’alpha since the summer?

While hedge fund performance and alpha were honorable until the summer, our analysis suggests that they erased about 2.5% of alpha since June, with no turn in sight yet in September.

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Opinion Why we’re banking on financial inclusion

This rising penetration of financial products and services will, according to Ross Teverson Head of Strategy, Emerging Markets, forge dramatic change in developing regions of the world, in turn creating opportunities for (...)

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Opinion To predict or to adapt?

According to Fabrice Foy, Quantitative Analyst at CCR-AM, we should do the exact opposite of the classical theory: the stock price does not reflect fundamentals, and if it deviates from its fundamental value, it does not necessarily tend to revert (...)

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Opinion Today’s European country in the sovereign debt crisis spotlight is…France

Russell Investments’ Chief Investment officer – Client Investment Strategies Erik Ristuben explains why the European sovereign debt crisis is spilling over into France

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Opinion The Euro will survive, but not the current Euro zone !

If the existence of the euro is not challenged, it is the case of the euro zone in its current configuration. In the same way that cohabitation between countries with maintaining parity exchange had become impossible in the EMS, cohabitation has become impossible within (...)

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Opinion Democrat sweep to open fiscal floodgates and boost growth

Democrats have completed a sweep of Congress following the double victory in the state of Georgia’s run-off election. Keith Wade, Schroders’ Chief Economist, discusses what this means for the US economy in the near-term

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Opinion A negative interest rate has one benefit: It forces Germans to reconsider their investment behavior

According to Stefan Kreuzkamp, Chief Investment Officer at Deutsche Asset, as we approached this negative interest rate scenario, there have been some winners and many losers. German savers are in the losing camp because their exposure to equities and real estate is below (...)

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Opinion Silver squeeze: What’s behind the surge in silver?

Silver is in the spotlight this week, after the popular r/WallStreetBets community on Reddit highlighted the fundamental value in acquiring silver at current levels. The online posting was the catalyst for increased retail flows and awareness. Last Thursday 28 January, the (...)

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Opinion The year of the rat: China’s Economy is strong but investors need to be on their guard

As China enters the Year of the Rat this Saturday (25 January), Jasmine Kang, Portfolio Manager at Comgest, the independent, international asset management group focused on quality growth investing, believes that China’s growth has become more sustainable but that (...)

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Opinion Greece: the end of bailout program

The end of the Greek bailout program on Aug 20 bears both virtues and risks. While the country is regaining some fiscal room of manoeuvre, there is no longer any additional precautionary funding scheme in place, which means Greece is now reliant on financial market funding (...)

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Opinion After Modi’s landslide win, all eyes on what he does for the Indian economy

India’s Narendra Modi won a second term as Prime Minster after a landslide win in the general elections in the world’s largest democracy. Mr. Modi’s party BJP won a simple majority with almost 300 out of 542 seats in the Lok Sabha (India’s equivalent of the House of (...)

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Opinion The art of the deal

The UK takes a big step towards Brexit, with today’s key announcement. Parliamentary ratification is the next major hurdle to clear. With the DUP reportedly uncomfortable with the deal, the parliamentary arithmetic for Saturday’s vote is very hard to (...)

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Opinion Russia now - should investors be bold or sit on the sidelines?

People are drawing parallels with the Crimean annexation and sanctions put in place then - which heavily impacted the Russian market. But the macroeconomic Russian situation is very different today - it is much (...)

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Opinion Macro Managers are scratching their heads just like you

Europe took center stage this week, with further developments in the Italian political saga reminding investors that there are still powerful Eurosceptic forces at play and forcing investors to end their hopes of meaningful eurozone reforms. However, fading prospects of (...)

Focus

Opinion Psychology and smart beta

‘Smart beta’ sounds like an oxymoron. How smart can it be to continue using the same strategy in such fickle markets? A portfolio manager calling on all his skills (‘alpha’) in analysing market environments (the source of ‘beta’) should be able to outperform an unchanged (...)

Focus

Mory Doré’s column

Mory Doré’s views on monetary policy, asset allocation, financial management of banks and understanding of crises

Éclairages Économiques Notebook

The association Éclairages Économiques share with us analysis mostly relying on current research on various economics issues

Selection: Prospects

Regulation Regulatory prospects: 2012 and beyond

2009 was a year of intense reflection on the functioning of the financial sector. There followed an intense regulatory activity in 2010, unfortunately with few formal adoptions of regulations. 2011 marked the surge of the will to succeed with provisional schedules. Where do (...)

Reading An Economic Approach to Marriage

Marriages are not always very stable. A divorce rate of 50 % in developed countries serves to prove. We ask ourselves if it is possible to form stable relationships. An economic analysis may be able to answer this (...)

Note Aging population poses new opportunities for global investment managers

Early conclusions from ongoing SimCorp StrategyLab research point to demographic changes as a key factor influencing the future of the global investment management industry.

Note Launch of green bonds

The term «Green Bonds» is more frequently used to describe a market that should mature very fast in order to deal with numerous requests for investments in the field of green infrastructure projects.

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