Opinion

Opinion A tale of two worlds: a robust business cycle in the US and a draining of liquidity in the rest of the world

After President Trump signed the ’Tax Cuts and Jobs Act’ into law on 22 December 2017, we expected corporate earnings growth to be strong in 2018. In fact, it has been far stronger, as the direct effect of the tax cut on corporate earnings was further magnified by the (...)

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Opinion Normalising economies may mean moderate returns

After 10 good years, the markets appear to be finally getting back to pre-crisis norms. Our analysis suggests that this normalisation may result in investment returns becoming much more modest than they have been over the years since the financial crisis, when (...)

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Opinion Accidental Americans Create Headache for French, European Banks

Boris Johnson, who was born in New York but left when he was five, found it outrageous that he was obliged to pay US taxes. The easy solution was to pay to renounce his US citizenship, which he did in 2016. Hundreds of other accidental Americans don’t have the luxury of such (...)

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Opinion A modern-day War of the Roses

A modern-day War of the Roses: Is a real winner possible in the US-China trade war? In an era of globalization, trade wars mean losses for all sides

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Opinion The Fed’s legacy will live on

The legacy of the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting promises to have lasting effects well into the new year. Once again, there were no surprises on the outcome for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) funds target following this (...)

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Opinion Brexit, Now What ?

Paul O’Connor, Head of Janus Henderson’s UK-based Multi-Asset Team, sifts through the highly complex range of Brexit scenarios following Theresa May’s survival as party leader.

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Opinion Rates going up...maybe not so fast

When examining the fixed income market outlook within the Euro zone, inevitably the discussion turns to Italy, and what the potential ramifications of this ongoing budget saga will be.

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Opinion Market outlook 2019

We believe that fears of a global slowdown are overdone, even though we are clearly past the peak in growth. Investor sentiment remains fragile and volatility high as fears about growth and political headlines keep markets on the back-foot. Yields have fallen on market woes, (...)

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Opinion Hedge Funds agree on where rates are going

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Opinion Financial Innovation: US banks steal a lead on European, Asian peers

In recent years, technological developments, new regulations and the rise of digital savvy millennials have combined to form an irreversible trend towards innovation in the global financial sector.

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Opinion A Tulip for London

We suspect the architects behind “the Tulip” are giving a nod to the famous European Tulip Mania of 1637. Even if the building is never completed, there may be no more fitting end to such a long trend toward positive social mood in the (...)

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Opinion ? Why MSCI ESG downgraded Nissan to ‘CCC’ for governance failures in September ‘18

MSCI ESG Research downgraded Nissan from ’B’ to ’CCC’ on September 10, 2018, the lowest industry-relative rating on the scale of ’CCC’ to ’AAA’. The downgrade was primarily attributed to systemic failures in governing its corporate (...)

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Opinion Reacting to the US mid-term election results

On the back of the election results, US and European equity futures are up about 1%, as one source of political uncertainty has been resolved. In our estimation, this reflects a market refocus on fundamentals that remain positive for equities, especially in the US, and will (...)

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Opinion US Mid Terms - Nothing really to see here

According to Nick Watson, Janus Henderson multi-asset team, from a markets perspective, Trump’s ability to provide the US economy and markets with further levels of stimulus and acceleration are likely to be constrained over the next two (...)

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Opinion Brexit update – the end of the beginning

Multiple sources suggest that UK and EU negotiators have reached a draft agreement on Britain’s terms for leaving the EU (the withdrawal agreement) including backstop mechanisms designed to ensure that Brexit does not create a hard border in Northern (...)

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Opinion Overview of Quantitative Finance in France

A short review of quantitative finance in France under the lens of the Next Finance website: Profile of quants, origins and outlook of the industry.

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Opinion Stuck between Europe and China

For investors in emerging markets, the positive dynamics in China, on the one hand, and the malaise in Europe, on the other, are causing perplexity.

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Opinion The oil has gone into negative territory

Yesterday was a historical day in the oil market. The American market, called West Texas Intermediate (WTI), moved to minus USD40—a fantastic move. The reason for this is likely connected to storage issues as people are consuming far less fuel amid the (...)

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Opinion The Euro will survive In fine !

We do not believe or at least most of the implosion scenarios of the euro zone regardless of the terms. -Not because we would be trying to find one or several sustainable solutions to the crisis of sovereign debt, but because such a process would cost too much to everybody (...)

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Opinion Investors Cannot Ignore the Debt-Sustainability Question

Despite a pullback in bond yields, clients at our Solving for 2024 event were still uncertain about how to invest in a world of runaway government debt.

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Opinion How will China’s devaluation impact eurozone equities ?

China’s central bank has taken steps to devalue the renminbi. The initial direct impact on eurozone equities is fairly limited but certain sectors and companies have more pronounced exposure...

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Opinion Financial correlations and loss of common sense

Isn’t correlation in finance charlatanry? We analyze this question through 4 situations that have been observed on financial markets with final investors, asset managers and proprietary traders.

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Opinion Fair trade, angel or demon ?

As citizens movements connect politically and economically, fair trade talks about itself. A fair and equitable trade, what is more decent in appearance ? But in order to determine the fair part of trade, we need beforehand to determine what we mean by this (...)

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Opinion Moving past the edge of reason, China government sanctionned rally

The situation is excellent. The market is rallying led by a government sanctioned rally in China. Our constructive thesis is validated after a period of noise in the equity market led by a US spike in Covid-19 cases. This is excellent and precisely why we need to (...)

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Opinion After Modi’s landslide win, all eyes on what he does for the Indian economy

India’s Narendra Modi won a second term as Prime Minster after a landslide win in the general elections in the world’s largest democracy. Mr. Modi’s party BJP won a simple majority with almost 300 out of 542 seats in the Lok Sabha (India’s equivalent of the House of (...)

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Opinion Are L/S Equity managers concerned by the covid resurgence?

Managers in the U.S. and Europe are continuing to reduce both their net and gross exposures, now converging near their long-term lows. They are selectively selling or shorting stocks that are the most exposed to tighter restrictions, preferring value stocks instead (to (...)

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Opinion Hard time for sterling

According to Luc Luyet and Frederik Ducrozet, Asset Allocation & Macro Research, Pictet Wealth Management, the sharp drop of the sterling on Friday 7 October at the start of trading in Asia with the currency declining 6% in the course of twenty minutes was the climax of (...)

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Opinion Total Return Futures set for further growth as buy-side adoption increases

Eurex launched Total Return Futures (TRFs) in 2016 in response to growing demand for listed alternatives to total return swaps. Since then, the product has evolved into an instrument used by a wide variety of firms for multiple purposes, enabling firms to lock in financing (...)

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Opinion Europe: bonds or equities?

One of the most surprising characteristics of the current crisis is the fact that bond investors appear to discount more eurostress than equity investors. Is this justified?

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Opinion Investing in Africa is not as risky as you might think

African equities are perceived to be very risky. But the surprise conclusion of new Robeco research is that the volatility of African equities overall is lower than in the other emerging markets regions.

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