Highlights

October 2018

Opinion Italy’s expansionary budget goals add to growing risks to sovereign rating

Italy’s announcement of a tentative budget deficit goal of 2.4% of GDP over 2019-2021 could compound the country’s existing debt sustainability challenges. This represents a significant risk to Italy’s A-/Negative Outlook (...)

Opinion

Greece: referendum reaction

Opinion

Europe – The darkest hour is just before the dawn

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January 2015

Opinion What would happen in case of Grexit?

According to William Davies, Head of global equities at Threadneedle Investments if Greece leaves the euro, contagion will be feared, the volatility of a currency under threat will resurface, and we revisit the throes of the euro crisis we endured a few years back. Not our (...)

September 2012

Note Scenarios for Public Sector Debt

The evolution of public sector debt depends on a number of economic variables and how they interact. Within the Eurozone, German and French debt looks sustainable while Italy, Portugal and Ireland appear borderline.

March 2012

Opinion The Euro will survive, but not the current Euro zone !

If the existence of the euro is not challenged, it is the case of the euro zone in its current configuration. In the same way that cohabitation between countries with maintaining parity exchange had become impossible in the EMS, cohabitation has become impossible within (...)

March 2012

Note Rating Agencies

The American case during August 2011 and that of France in January shows that the loss of an AAA rating does not necessarily lead to a higher interest rate adjustment.

December 2011

Opinion The Euro will survive In fine !

We do not believe or at least most of the implosion scenarios of the euro zone regardless of the terms. -Not because we would be trying to find one or several sustainable solutions to the crisis of sovereign debt, but because such a process would cost too much to everybody (...)

December 2011

Interview Jeremy Bell : « The rescue plans will not hamper the availability of liquidity to funds »

According to Jeremy Bell, business lawyer and associate at Ashurst in London, some firms are making sure that their euro deposits are in bank accounts located in strong Eurozone countries instead of accounts in weak (...)

December 2011

Note Challenges for Europe’s banks

Even in the seemingly unlikely case that a comprehensive solution to the sovereign crisis is found, the changed regulatory backdrop is a major challenge for the banks, and probably for the economy as a whole.

December 2011

Innovation The ECB announces 3 years refinancing measures !

The ECB has adopted a historic longer term refinancing measure to support bank lending and money market activity. It also decided to lower the threshold rating for certain securities as collateral ...

November 2011

Opinion Is there Corporate Life after the Euro

Several opinion leaders have started a public debate regarding the possibility to breakup the Euro and return to the former local currencies. In light of this debate, we look at the possible implications of this break-up scenario for companies active on the Euro capital (...)

November 2011

Kiosk Understanding the eurozone crisis and its various facets

The current crisis is multiple. Initially sovereign and financial, it then became a social and political crisis. These changes do not facilitate the assessment of the situation, let alone the implementation of solutions. Back on the various facets of the (...)

November 2011

Opinion Central Banks : the global financial system trashcans ?

Institutionalized monetization condemns central banks to become the international financial system trashcans and, despite German opposition, it is likely to be the same for the ECB.

November 2011

Financial crisis Back on the true origins of the crisis

More than 4 years after the official start, now where everyone wonders how we will emerge from this ongoing crisis, let’s come back for a moment on the true origins.

October 2011

Opinion European Crisis: Historic turning point for the European and Global Economy ?

The 26 and 27 October European Summit was followed by a spectacular rise in the Markets. Does this mark the historic turning point as some analysts would have us believe or is it simply some extra time won?

October 2011

Stories The Greek crisis : the Danaides’ barrel ?

Back on the Greek saga or the largest bankruptcy in the 21st century without credit event trigger (to date). The succession of bailout plans shows that we do not simply resolve the insolvency of a country by emergency (...)

October 2011

Opinion Again and again the bank stress tests

Certainly it never ceases to write about the bank stress tests since it keeps getting more into banks; if proof were needed of the total lack of credibility of those made up to now

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Latest articles

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Opinion The Euro will survive, but not the current Euro zone !

If the existence of the euro is not challenged, it is the case of the euro zone in its current configuration. In the same way that cohabitation between countries with maintaining parity exchange had become impossible in the EMS, cohabitation has become impossible within (...)

Logo

Stories The Greek crisis : the Danaides’ barrel ?

Back on the Greek saga or the largest bankruptcy in the 21st century without credit event trigger (to date). The succession of bailout plans shows that we do not simply resolve the insolvency of a country by emergency (...)

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Opinion The Euro will survive In fine !

We do not believe or at least most of the implosion scenarios of the euro zone regardless of the terms. -Not because we would be trying to find one or several sustainable solutions to the crisis of sovereign debt, but because such a process would cost too much to everybody (...)

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Note Challenges for Europe’s banks

Even in the seemingly unlikely case that a comprehensive solution to the sovereign crisis is found, the changed regulatory backdrop is a major challenge for the banks, and probably for the economy as a whole.

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Opinion Greece rescue - Behind the scenes

Debt rescheduling, monetary policies questioning and EFSF bond purchases in the secondary market. These are the key steps of a plan that should not significantly affect banks’ net income but rather spread economic losses over (...)

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Note Sorting out the Greek issue

The aim of this short article is to set the ideas straight regarding the Greek situation. Several issues are considered, the first of which being that of economic growth. If the latter does not make any progress, it will be very difficult to reach public finance stability. (...)

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Note Euro zone bailout plans: origin and utilization

Back on bailout plans granted to countries in the Euro zone encountering severe fiscal deficits since May 2010. How are tens of billions Euros raised, what are they for, and mainly, are those amounts enough to re-establish the public finances and stabilize those countries (...)

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News Currency Swaps to hide Greek debt?

The general opinion that Goldman Sachs might have helped the Greek government to hide its debt through Currency Swaps, leaves one more than skeptical.....

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Opinion Central Banks : the global financial system trashcans ?

Institutionalized monetization condemns central banks to become the international financial system trashcans and, despite German opposition, it is likely to be the same for the ECB.

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News IMF experts believe European banks heavily undercapitalized!

Christine Lagarde and her team believe that European banks could need € 200 billion...

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News ECB to buy Italian and Spanish bonds

The European Central Bank, which has announced strong intervention on the markets, will buy Italian and Spanish debt according to a source close to the bank

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News According to Goldman Sachs, 5 European banks could fail the EBA tests

In a research note that was published on Friday, the American bank estimated 50 European banks out of 91 could fail the new tests prepared by the European Banking Authority (EBE)…

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Opinion Again and again the bank stress tests

Certainly it never ceases to write about the bank stress tests since it keeps getting more into banks; if proof were needed of the total lack of credibility of those made up to now

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News Rumors were close to destroy the Société Générale

4 Billion losses related to ETFs, losses in its Greek subsidiary and ECB rescue amounting € 5 Billion...this is an anthology of the rumors that ran in the markets about Société Générale.

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Opinion Who is eventually irrational?

If the market was fully rational in its current pricing, policy makers could actually see current low levels of bond yields as a vote of confidence in their long-term credibility. It would then be rational for policy makers to exploit the lowest funding costs (...)

Focus

News Eurozone: How the City is bracing itself for the worst.

Within the large investment banks, special teams consisting of 10 to 30 people have been assembled in order to develop rescue kits designed to face all types of scenarios resulting from a breakup of the Eurozone.

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Greek crisis

Focus on the greek crisis

Irish crisis

Focus on the irish crisis

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