Highlights

October 2018

Opinion Italy’s expansionary budget goals add to growing risks to sovereign rating

Italy’s announcement of a tentative budget deficit goal of 2.4% of GDP over 2019-2021 could compound the country’s existing debt sustainability challenges. This represents a significant risk to Italy’s A-/Negative Outlook (...)

Opinion

Greece: referendum reaction

Opinion

Europe – The darkest hour is just before the dawn

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January 2015

Opinion What would happen in case of Grexit?

According to William Davies, Head of global equities at Threadneedle Investments if Greece leaves the euro, contagion will be feared, the volatility of a currency under threat will resurface, and we revisit the throes of the euro crisis we endured a few years back. Not our (...)

September 2012

Note Scenarios for Public Sector Debt

The evolution of public sector debt depends on a number of economic variables and how they interact. Within the Eurozone, German and French debt looks sustainable while Italy, Portugal and Ireland appear borderline.

March 2012

Opinion The Euro will survive, but not the current Euro zone !

If the existence of the euro is not challenged, it is the case of the euro zone in its current configuration. In the same way that cohabitation between countries with maintaining parity exchange had become impossible in the EMS, cohabitation has become impossible within (...)

March 2012

Note Rating Agencies

The American case during August 2011 and that of France in January shows that the loss of an AAA rating does not necessarily lead to a higher interest rate adjustment.

December 2011

Opinion The Euro will survive In fine !

We do not believe or at least most of the implosion scenarios of the euro zone regardless of the terms. -Not because we would be trying to find one or several sustainable solutions to the crisis of sovereign debt, but because such a process would cost too much to everybody (...)

December 2011

Interview Jeremy Bell : « The rescue plans will not hamper the availability of liquidity to funds »

According to Jeremy Bell, business lawyer and associate at Ashurst in London, some firms are making sure that their euro deposits are in bank accounts located in strong Eurozone countries instead of accounts in weak (...)

December 2011

Note Challenges for Europe’s banks

Even in the seemingly unlikely case that a comprehensive solution to the sovereign crisis is found, the changed regulatory backdrop is a major challenge for the banks, and probably for the economy as a whole.

December 2011

Innovation The ECB announces 3 years refinancing measures !

The ECB has adopted a historic longer term refinancing measure to support bank lending and money market activity. It also decided to lower the threshold rating for certain securities as collateral ...

November 2011

Opinion Is there Corporate Life after the Euro

Several opinion leaders have started a public debate regarding the possibility to breakup the Euro and return to the former local currencies. In light of this debate, we look at the possible implications of this break-up scenario for companies active on the Euro capital (...)

November 2011

Kiosk Understanding the eurozone crisis and its various facets

The current crisis is multiple. Initially sovereign and financial, it then became a social and political crisis. These changes do not facilitate the assessment of the situation, let alone the implementation of solutions. Back on the various facets of the (...)

November 2011

Opinion Central Banks : the global financial system trashcans ?

Institutionalized monetization condemns central banks to become the international financial system trashcans and, despite German opposition, it is likely to be the same for the ECB.

November 2011

Financial crisis Back on the true origins of the crisis

More than 4 years after the official start, now where everyone wonders how we will emerge from this ongoing crisis, let’s come back for a moment on the true origins.

October 2011

Opinion European Crisis: Historic turning point for the European and Global Economy ?

The 26 and 27 October European Summit was followed by a spectacular rise in the Markets. Does this mark the historic turning point as some analysts would have us believe or is it simply some extra time won?

October 2011

Stories The Greek crisis : the Danaides’ barrel ?

Back on the Greek saga or the largest bankruptcy in the 21st century without credit event trigger (to date). The succession of bailout plans shows that we do not simply resolve the insolvency of a country by emergency (...)

October 2011

Opinion Again and again the bank stress tests

Certainly it never ceases to write about the bank stress tests since it keeps getting more into banks; if proof were needed of the total lack of credibility of those made up to now

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Opinion Can the euro survive democracy?

If Greece is allowed to default now, the risk of a confidence crisis and contagion is substantial. The debt of other weak eurozone countries may fall victim to speculators and the market for credit default swaps could experience difficulties (...)

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Interview Jeremy Bell : « The rescue plans will not hamper the availability of liquidity to funds »

According to Jeremy Bell, business lawyer and associate at Ashurst in London, some firms are making sure that their euro deposits are in bank accounts located in strong Eurozone countries instead of accounts in weak (...)

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News Greece rescue plan: The resurgence of structured finance?

The Greek rescue plan, suggested by a consortium of banks led by BNP Paribas, praises the techniques of structured finance, with this time the politicals’ blessing...

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Note Sorting out the Greek issue

The aim of this short article is to set the ideas straight regarding the Greek situation. Several issues are considered, the first of which being that of economic growth. If the latter does not make any progress, it will be very difficult to reach public finance stability. (...)

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News BNP Paribas denies having trouble obtaining USD funding

BNP Paribas categorically denies the statements made by a certain anonymous BNP Paribas executive who states that the bank has a liquidity problem in dollars and is participating in the creation of a market in euros to solve the (...)

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Opinion Ireland is not second Greece

According to irish economist Cathal Brugha, professor of University College of Dublin (UCD) School of Business, Ireland does not face a similar crisis like Greece

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Note Scenarios for Public Sector Debt

The evolution of public sector debt depends on a number of economic variables and how they interact. Within the Eurozone, German and French debt looks sustainable while Italy, Portugal and Ireland appear borderline.

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Innovation The ECB announces 3 years refinancing measures !

The ECB has adopted a historic longer term refinancing measure to support bank lending and money market activity. It also decided to lower the threshold rating for certain securities as collateral ...

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Opinion What would happen in case of Grexit?

According to William Davies, Head of global equities at Threadneedle Investments if Greece leaves the euro, contagion will be feared, the volatility of a currency under threat will resurface, and we revisit the throes of the euro crisis we endured a few years back. Not our (...)

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Opinion Greece: awaiting the inevitable

The credit default swap market is pricing in a 65% probability of a default within the next five years.

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Strategy Nordic Sovereign bonds, the last safe investment in Europe?

The yield of the Swedish 10 year notes fell to a new historical low. A move which indicates that Sweden is viewed by Investors as a new hedge…

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Opinion European Crisis: Historic turning point for the European and Global Economy ?

The 26 and 27 October European Summit was followed by a spectacular rise in the Markets. Does this mark the historic turning point as some analysts would have us believe or is it simply some extra time won?

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Opinion The Euro, a foreign currency?

The Euro is, in principle, the common currency of the Europeans, however the crisis of sovereign has uncovered something completely unexpected and previously hidden. The Euro is, in fact, proving itself to be a foreign (...)

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Note Euro zone bailout plans: origin and utilization

Back on bailout plans granted to countries in the Euro zone encountering severe fiscal deficits since May 2010. How are tens of billions Euros raised, what are they for, and mainly, are those amounts enough to re-establish the public finances and stabilize those countries (...)

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Note The EMF has been created, long live the EMF!

Philip Hall and Adrian Paturle give an update on the operation of ESM: European leaders have largely been inspired by the IMF...

Focus

News Eurozone: How the City is bracing itself for the worst.

Within the large investment banks, special teams consisting of 10 to 30 people have been assembled in order to develop rescue kits designed to face all types of scenarios resulting from a breakup of the Eurozone.

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Greek crisis

Focus on the greek crisis

Irish crisis

Focus on the irish crisis

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