Stories The Greek crisis : the Danaides’ barrel ?
Back on the Greek saga or the largest bankruptcy in the 21st century without credit event trigger (to date). The succession of bailout plans shows that we do not simply resolve the insolvency of a country by emergency (...)
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Opinion Mathematical models in finance and embedded risk underestimation
The statistical assumption of normal (log-normal) distribution of stock returns (prices) is not that strong and tail events’ occurrence is largely undervalued. Nevertheless, this modeling framework has been widely used for strong (...)
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Note Financial crisis indicators and safe haven assets
How to measure the intensity of the current financial and economic crisis? Regular monitoring of a number of economic and financial indicators helps answering this question and better understanding the materialization of panic behavior and portfolio reallocations in the (...)
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Strategy The Euro’s Survival and traditional asset classes prospects for 2012
On the basis of the survival «in fine» of the Euro through a constrained and massive indirect monetization from the ECB, what are the expectations for 2012 on foreign exchange, short-term rates, long-term rates and (...)
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Opinion Stock markets: upcoming crash in 2011
The recent rise in stock markets is rather artificial and based on fragile factors. The structural ones remain bearish: prudential developments, systemic risk, and true inflation expectations in the long term mainly in the United (...)
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Note 10 proposals to rebuild finance and monetary macroeconomics
Rethink monetary policy and its objectives, reform our accounting and prudential environment, review the return on equity standards, regulate the prices of certain assets...
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Regulation Reconciling bank processing and prudential regulation
The introduction of new liquidity ratios could undermine banking core business
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Note Financial markets and self-fulfilling prophecies
This phenomenon is equivalent to the change from a brutal economic and financial equilibrium to another, not because the fundamentals of the macroeconomic environment would justify it, but because there was a change for good or bad reasons of market (...)
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Opinion Perspective and real solvency of banks
Can a universal bank go bankrupt ? An objective, rigorous and professional answer is built in three stages: credibility of the banks performed stress tests - assessment of prudential regulation to come - understanding the evolution of the banking business (...)
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Strategy Investing during market turmoil
The idea that considers equity investing as long term has simply become absurd nowadays and has been so during the last 10 years. Let us be reassured. Opportunities will still be around. The only real question nowadays is how to allocate between real assets and financial (...)
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Note Strategic tasks of central banks: focus on the ECB
Beyond the traditional measures and in a context of systemic risk, we wonder about what specifically should be the strategic tasks of a central bank
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Note The frantic flight to liquidity and solvency
Some markets have been exhibiting dysfunctions for nearly 4 years. The flight to liquidity and compliance with solvency requirements of banks and states with financial issues, have been - and still is - only ensured by non-conventional financing provisions and emergency (...)
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Strategy Financial markets: hedging against new structural risks and stagflation
There are at least four new structural risks to consider: regulation, Middle East, euro zone’s crisis, and again the idea of a change in growth model of emerging countries.
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Opinion The Euro will survive, but not the current Euro zone !
If the existence of the euro is not challenged, it is the case of the euro zone in its current configuration. In the same way that cohabitation between countries with maintaining parity exchange had become impossible in the EMS, cohabitation has become impossible within (...)
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Mory Doré’s column Politics and financial markets: misunderstandings that are not new
Small point into the complex and tumultuous relations, misunderstood, between financial markets and politics. In these troubled times where the markets are supposedly expecting clear answers from politics and where at the same time, the same markets are accused of (...)
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