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September 18

Opinion Gold, mines and natural resources: Acceleration in momentum

After testing the $1200/oz. support in early July ($1204.7/oz. on 10 July), the gold price once again took on the psychological resistance level of $1300/oz. It brushed up against this barrier once, on 18 August ($1301/oz.), but not until late in the month did it cross it at (...)

Opinion

Politics are not the only risk on the horizon

Opinion

President Trump’s Pick for Fed Chair

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August 22

Opinion Do the Lessons from 2013’s Taper Tantrum Apply to Today’s Bond Markets?

Short-Term Mispricing of Fed’s Intentions Unlikely to Be As Serious, This Time, Western Asset Predicts

August 10

Opinion Don’t believe everything you read

African elections are back in the headlines, apparently for all the wrong reasons. But according to Aberdeen Asset Management Senior Investment Manager Kevin Daly, the reality is better than some would have you (...)

August 3

Opinion Central banks: from doves to hawks?

In the US, the UK, Sweden and Canada, central bankers have taken on board an economic situation that is coming close to full employment, with a risk of overheating not of inflation, but rather of private debt and asset prices (real estate, (...)

July 27

Opinion The case for Japanese equities

We see further strength in Japanese equities after their recent rally, given an encouraging earnings outlook, relatively low valuations and a stable yen under Japan’s ultra-easy monetary policy.

July 19

Opinion China-US détente eases investor fears

The meeting between President Trump and President Xi in April removes a cloud hanging over the equity market. This comes at a time when fears over debt levels have been well discounted, while growth appears to have stabilised nicely at a relatively high level. Furthermore, (...)

July 19

Opinion Reasons to embrace risk

According to Richard Turnill, BlackRock’s Global Chief Investment Strategist, if we look at the earnings yield of U.S. equities — the implied yield in earnings estimates that makes potential returns comparable to bond yields. U.S. equities look expensive on this basis. But (...)

July 11

Opinion The long unwinding road of quantitative easing

According to Mark Burgess, CIO EMEA and Global Head of Equities, Columbia Threadneedle Investments, an unwinding of QE could cause increased volatility in the markets and a fight for remaining liquidity, as the supply of government bonds starts to (...)

July 4

Opinion UK earnings forecasts unchanged despite headwinds

Developments in the UK have led us to renew our focus on the region in recent weeks, amidst the start of Brexit negotiations and the general election. We have not made any changes to our neutral position on UK equities and UK rates, or our negative view on (...)

June 26

Opinion Fidelity Fixed Income Monthly: US Duration offers welcome protection

As June’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting approaches in the US, Andrea Iannelli, Fixed Income Investment Director at Fidelity International, outlines why US duration offers welcome protection for investors.

June 26

Opinion China A-shares inclusion in MSCI indices to redefine emerging market investing

The MSCI approval of China A-shares inclusion in their benchmark Emerging Markets and ACWI indices is likely to redefine the way investors invest in emerging markets according to ETF Securities, one of the world’s leading, independent providers of Exchange Traded Products (...)

June 22

Opinion CalPERS Private Equity Team Helps Strengthen the Fund

According to Henry Jones is chair of the CalPERS Investment Committee and vice president of the Board, nothing is more important to portfolio earnings than having the right mix of investments — and few investments are as essential to CalPERS’ success as private (...)

June 12

Opinion Paris Agreement : With the US abdicating its responsibility, the leadership will be taken up by others

With the US abdicating its responsibility, the leadership will be taken up by others. China has already signalled its keenness to take up the mantle. Other countries may also see an opportunity to get ahead in the race to a low-carbon (...)

May 29

Opinion Brazil : Political risk is back

Just as political risk seemed confined to developed markets, Brazil sent a stark reminder yesterday that presidential upheavals are not something buried in Emerging Markets’ past.

May 23

Opinion European equities: Back to basics

Following the French election, European equity markets are breathing a sigh of relief. While some structural challenges remain, strong fundamentals point towards continued European equity outperformance, triggered by reduced political tail (...)

May 22

Opinion Brazil’s stockmarket and currency have fallen sharply on concerns about a new political crisis in Latin America’s largest economy

According to Matthew Vaight, Manager of M&G Global Emerging Markets, investors are worried that the revelations could lead to political turmoil and jeopardise the government’s plans to revive the Brazilian economy...

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Opinion Are french OAT overvalued ?

According to John Gilbert, CIO of the Berkshire Hathaway’s subsidiary General Re-New England AM, French 10-year bonds should yield between 4.5% and 5%, closer to Italian and Spanish bonds rather than German ones. However, This opinion is not shared by the majority of the (...)

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Opinion Room to run for reflationary assets

Most reflation trades aren’t crowded or expensive, our research suggests. U.S. stock prices more fully reflect the maturing reflationary cycle, and we see better opportunities in Europe, Japan and EM stocks. We also prefer U.S. credit over government (...)

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Opinion French elections – Place your bets, last call

While a moderate candidate is the most likely victor in our assessment, the situation remains fluid with little risk priced in. In such an environment, we believe it is important to protect investors in our multi asset portfolios from market shocks. We have tactically (...)

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Opinion French Elections: What would Macron’s victory mean for markets?

According to Philip Dicken, Head of European Equities and Francis Ellison Client Portfolio Manager, European Equities at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, if Emmanuel Macron were elected, the environment would suit active investors and reinforce their potential to find (...)

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Opinion French elections : Europe lives on !

“The results from the first round of vote counting strengthen our confidence that, from this summer, France will have a president in favor of reforms for the first time.” Comments from Stefan Kreuzkamp, Chief investment Officer Deutsche Asset (...)

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Opinion UK earnings forecasts unchanged despite headwinds

Developments in the UK have led us to renew our focus on the region in recent weeks, amidst the start of Brexit negotiations and the general election. We have not made any changes to our neutral position on UK equities and UK rates, or our negative view on (...)

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Opinion Fitch: China Policy Shift Prioritises Growth Over Debt Problem

Chinese government directives last week concerning local government debt signal a potentially significant policy shift to prioritise growth over managing the country’s debt problem, says Fitch Ratings.

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Opinion A Clinton victory reduces political uncertainty

According to Martin Arnold, Director – FX & Macro Strategist, ETF Securities, a Clinton victory reduces political uncertainty, and takes another excuse away from the Federal Reserve to not raise rates at December FOMC meeting. USD is likely to continue to strengthen, (...)

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Opinion Don’t cry for Argentina

In accordance with the Right Upon Future Offers or RUFO clause (similar to a conventional clause requiring creditors to be treated pari passu) contained in the 2005 agreement on the restructuring of the debt of the exchange bondholders (preventing Argentina from making more (...)

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Opinion “Brexit”: dampening the downside but ready for opportunities

Paul O’Connor, Head of Multi-Asset, gives an update on the risks and opportunities in the run-up to the June EU referendum. With less than 40 days until the vote, opinion polls are fairly stable and suggest “remain” will be the outcome. However, the material risk of “Brexit” (...)

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Opinion Climate change is an investment play for today

According to Luisa Florez, analyst at AXA IM, It is often said that climate and carbon themes are not financially material risk factors in the short to medium term. As an illustration, to date there have not been any signals from carbon markets to suggest that climate (...)

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Opinion Eurozone inflation returns to dispel deflation

According to Azad Zangana, Economist at Schroders, for the European Central Bank (ECB), the faster than expected rise in inflation is unlikely to change its outlook or path of monetary stimulus. The ECB always had a more optimistic forecast than the consensus, and so will (...)

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Opinion Equities are cheap . . . and rightfully so!

Corporate earnings have never been higher. Yet, sovereign bond yields have never been lower. Have markets overreacted? Are equities a bargain?

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Opinion The European Central Bank (ECB) have very much taken the ‘kitchen sink’ approach

According to Mitul Patel, Head of Interest Rates, Henderson Global Investors, The European Central Bank (ECB) have very much taken the ‘kitchen sink’ approach, surprising market expectations in a variety of ways...

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Opinion Stuck between Europe and China

For investors in emerging markets, the positive dynamics in China, on the one hand, and the malaise in Europe, on the other, are causing perplexity.

Focus

Opinion Psychology and smart beta

‘Smart beta’ sounds like an oxymoron. How smart can it be to continue using the same strategy in such fickle markets? A portfolio manager calling on all his skills (‘alpha’) in analysing market environments (the source of ‘beta’) should be able to outperform an unchanged (...)

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Mory Doré’s column

Mory Doré’s views on monetary policy, asset allocation, financial management of banks and understanding of crises

Éclairages Économiques Notebook

The association Éclairages Économiques share with us analysis mostly relying on current research on various economics issues

Selection: Prospects

Regulation Regulatory prospects: 2012 and beyond

2009 was a year of intense reflection on the functioning of the financial sector. There followed an intense regulatory activity in 2010, unfortunately with few formal adoptions of regulations. 2011 marked the surge of the will to succeed with provisional schedules. Where do (...)

Reading An Economic Approach to Marriage

Marriages are not always very stable. A divorce rate of 50 % in developed countries serves to prove. We ask ourselves if it is possible to form stable relationships. An economic analysis may be able to answer this (...)

Note Aging population poses new opportunities for global investment managers

Early conclusions from ongoing SimCorp StrategyLab research point to demographic changes as a key factor influencing the future of the global investment management industry.

Note Launch of green bonds

The term «Green Bonds» is more frequently used to describe a market that should mature very fast in order to deal with numerous requests for investments in the field of green infrastructure projects.

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