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August 10

Opinion Don’t believe everything you read

African elections are back in the headlines, apparently for all the wrong reasons. But according to Aberdeen Asset Management Senior Investment Manager Kevin Daly, the reality is better than some would have you (...)

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Central banks: from doves to hawks?

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The case for Japanese equities

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July 19

Opinion China-US détente eases investor fears

The meeting between President Trump and President Xi in April removes a cloud hanging over the equity market. This comes at a time when fears over debt levels have been well discounted, while growth appears to have stabilised nicely at a relatively high level. Furthermore, (...)

July 19

Opinion Reasons to embrace risk

According to Richard Turnill, BlackRock’s Global Chief Investment Strategist, if we look at the earnings yield of U.S. equities — the implied yield in earnings estimates that makes potential returns comparable to bond yields. U.S. equities look expensive on this basis. But (...)

July 11

Opinion The long unwinding road of quantitative easing

According to Mark Burgess, CIO EMEA and Global Head of Equities, Columbia Threadneedle Investments, an unwinding of QE could cause increased volatility in the markets and a fight for remaining liquidity, as the supply of government bonds starts to (...)

July 4

Opinion UK earnings forecasts unchanged despite headwinds

Developments in the UK have led us to renew our focus on the region in recent weeks, amidst the start of Brexit negotiations and the general election. We have not made any changes to our neutral position on UK equities and UK rates, or our negative view on (...)

June 26

Opinion Fidelity Fixed Income Monthly: US Duration offers welcome protection

As June’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting approaches in the US, Andrea Iannelli, Fixed Income Investment Director at Fidelity International, outlines why US duration offers welcome protection for investors.

June 26

Opinion China A-shares inclusion in MSCI indices to redefine emerging market investing

The MSCI approval of China A-shares inclusion in their benchmark Emerging Markets and ACWI indices is likely to redefine the way investors invest in emerging markets according to ETF Securities, one of the world’s leading, independent providers of Exchange Traded Products (...)

June 22

Opinion CalPERS Private Equity Team Helps Strengthen the Fund

According to Henry Jones is chair of the CalPERS Investment Committee and vice president of the Board, nothing is more important to portfolio earnings than having the right mix of investments — and few investments are as essential to CalPERS’ success as private (...)

June 12

Opinion Paris Agreement : With the US abdicating its responsibility, the leadership will be taken up by others

With the US abdicating its responsibility, the leadership will be taken up by others. China has already signalled its keenness to take up the mantle. Other countries may also see an opportunity to get ahead in the race to a low-carbon (...)

May 29

Opinion Brazil : Political risk is back

Just as political risk seemed confined to developed markets, Brazil sent a stark reminder yesterday that presidential upheavals are not something buried in Emerging Markets’ past.

May 23

Opinion European equities: Back to basics

Following the French election, European equity markets are breathing a sigh of relief. While some structural challenges remain, strong fundamentals point towards continued European equity outperformance, triggered by reduced political tail (...)

May 22

Opinion Brazil’s stockmarket and currency have fallen sharply on concerns about a new political crisis in Latin America’s largest economy

According to Matthew Vaight, Manager of M&G Global Emerging Markets, investors are worried that the revelations could lead to political turmoil and jeopardise the government’s plans to revive the Brazilian economy...

May 10

Opinion Emmanuel Macron has been elected President of France: what is the outlook for the markets?

The second round of the French presidential elections has led to victory for Emmanuel Macron, who achieved more than 66% of votes. This result marks a clear watershed with traditional French politics over the past 50 years, as it is the first time that none of the mainstream (...)

May 9

Opinion The French election represents a win for EU continuity and integration.

According to David Lafferty, Chief strategist, Natixis Global Asset Management, the French election represents a win for EU continuity and integration. As Le Pen risk passes, the next hurdle for the EU project is likely to be the Italian banks which remain mired in (...)

May 9

Opinion France election: Macron wins big

The French election result confirms our view that markets until recently had overstated European political risks. Italian political risk and the country’s fragile banking system could move back into focus soon, however, particularly if the likelihood of early elections in (...)

May 9

Opinion French election 2017: Markets march on

The centrist candidate’s victory is seen as a positive for European stability, something which supports the global reflation trend that has been building up since last summer. Economic data in Europe, Asia and the US has been improving, underpinning traditional risk assets, (...)

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Opinion Mathematical models in finance and embedded risk underestimation

The statistical assumption of normal (log-normal) distribution of stock returns (prices) is not that strong and tail events’ occurrence is largely undervalued. Nevertheless, this modeling framework has been widely used for strong (...)

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Opinion Outlook Brazil

Brazil is in recession territory. The country’s fiscal consolidation plan had a major set-back in July as the finance minister Joaquim Levy announced a significant downward revision of the government’s primary fiscal surplus targets. In august, S&P placed Brazil’s foreign (...)

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Opinion Euro MMFs Are Prepared for Lower Market Yields

Euro-denominated money market funds have already taken investment and operational measures to prepare for yields declining or even turning negative, should short-term money market rates shift in that direction following the European Central Bank’s decision to cut the rate on (...)

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Opinion Fitch: China Policy Shift Prioritises Growth Over Debt Problem

Chinese government directives last week concerning local government debt signal a potentially significant policy shift to prioritise growth over managing the country’s debt problem, says Fitch Ratings.

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Opinion A Clinton victory reduces political uncertainty

According to Martin Arnold, Director – FX & Macro Strategist, ETF Securities, a Clinton victory reduces political uncertainty, and takes another excuse away from the Federal Reserve to not raise rates at December FOMC meeting. USD is likely to continue to strengthen, (...)

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Opinion Don’t cry for Argentina

In accordance with the Right Upon Future Offers or RUFO clause (similar to a conventional clause requiring creditors to be treated pari passu) contained in the 2005 agreement on the restructuring of the debt of the exchange bondholders (preventing Argentina from making more (...)

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Opinion “Brexit”: dampening the downside but ready for opportunities

Paul O’Connor, Head of Multi-Asset, gives an update on the risks and opportunities in the run-up to the June EU referendum. With less than 40 days until the vote, opinion polls are fairly stable and suggest “remain” will be the outcome. However, the material risk of “Brexit” (...)

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Opinion Eurozone inflation returns to dispel deflation

According to Azad Zangana, Economist at Schroders, for the European Central Bank (ECB), the faster than expected rise in inflation is unlikely to change its outlook or path of monetary stimulus. The ECB always had a more optimistic forecast than the consensus, and so will (...)

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Opinion Equities are cheap . . . and rightfully so!

Corporate earnings have never been higher. Yet, sovereign bond yields have never been lower. Have markets overreacted? Are equities a bargain?

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Opinion The European Central Bank (ECB) have very much taken the ‘kitchen sink’ approach

According to Mitul Patel, Head of Interest Rates, Henderson Global Investors, The European Central Bank (ECB) have very much taken the ‘kitchen sink’ approach, surprising market expectations in a variety of ways...

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Opinion Stuck between Europe and China

For investors in emerging markets, the positive dynamics in China, on the one hand, and the malaise in Europe, on the other, are causing perplexity.

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Opinion « Surprising Russia »

Based on the experiences of recent years, there are few stock markets that are more risky than Russia’s. After the Brazilian and South African market, the Russian market has been the most sensitive to increasing risk aversion among investors since the market correction of (...)

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Opinion Decline in Eurozone growth set to continue into 2012

ING Investment Management is warning that a combination of fiscal austerity, a lingering debt crisis and a slow down in external demand will translate into a fall in Eurozone GDP growth from 1.7 to 1.0.

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Opinion When Smart Is Not That Smart

Can Beta Become Smarter? Nobel Prize-winning economist William Sharpe introduced the notions of “beta” and “alpha” decades ago. Put simply, Sharpe defined beta as a measure of a portfolio’s sensitivity relative to the market. Under this definition, it is difficult to fathom how (...)

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Opinion Do the layoffs at Crédit Agricole represent a sharp decline in French banks?

The layoffs have unquestionably impacted the personnel of the French banks but a greater malaise reigns. A top ranked outgoing senior executive considers the current situation as symbolizing an unprecedented weakening of French (...)

Focus

Opinion Psychology and smart beta

‘Smart beta’ sounds like an oxymoron. How smart can it be to continue using the same strategy in such fickle markets? A portfolio manager calling on all his skills (‘alpha’) in analysing market environments (the source of ‘beta’) should be able to outperform an unchanged (...)

Focus

Mory Doré’s column

Mory Doré’s views on monetary policy, asset allocation, financial management of banks and understanding of crises

Éclairages Économiques Notebook

The association Éclairages Économiques share with us analysis mostly relying on current research on various economics issues

Selection: Prospects

Regulation Regulatory prospects: 2012 and beyond

2009 was a year of intense reflection on the functioning of the financial sector. There followed an intense regulatory activity in 2010, unfortunately with few formal adoptions of regulations. 2011 marked the surge of the will to succeed with provisional schedules. Where do (...)

Reading An Economic Approach to Marriage

Marriages are not always very stable. A divorce rate of 50 % in developed countries serves to prove. We ask ourselves if it is possible to form stable relationships. An economic analysis may be able to answer this (...)

Note Aging population poses new opportunities for global investment managers

Early conclusions from ongoing SimCorp StrategyLab research point to demographic changes as a key factor influencing the future of the global investment management industry.

Note Launch of green bonds

The term «Green Bonds» is more frequently used to describe a market that should mature very fast in order to deal with numerous requests for investments in the field of green infrastructure projects.

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