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May 23

Opinion European equities: Back to basics

Following the French election, European equity markets are breathing a sigh of relief. While some structural challenges remain, strong fundamentals point towards continued European equity outperformance, triggered by reduced political tail (...)

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Brazil’s stockmarket and currency have fallen sharply on concerns about a new political crisis in Latin America’s largest economy

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Emmanuel Macron has been elected President of France: what is the outlook for the markets?

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May 9

Opinion The French election represents a win for EU continuity and integration.

According to David Lafferty, Chief strategist, Natixis Global Asset Management, the French election represents a win for EU continuity and integration. As Le Pen risk passes, the next hurdle for the EU project is likely to be the Italian banks which remain mired in (...)

May 9

Opinion France election: Macron wins big

The French election result confirms our view that markets until recently had overstated European political risks. Italian political risk and the country’s fragile banking system could move back into focus soon, however, particularly if the likelihood of early elections in (...)

May 9

Opinion French election 2017: Markets march on

The centrist candidate’s victory is seen as a positive for European stability, something which supports the global reflation trend that has been building up since last summer. Economic data in Europe, Asia and the US has been improving, underpinning traditional risk assets, (...)

May 3

Opinion Government bonds: caution ahead

Geopolitical forces suppressing global government bond yields have somewhat dissipated after the French first-round vote. We see Fed rate rise expectations returning as a bond market driver, justifying a cautious stance on sovereign (...)

April 25

Opinion French elections : Europe lives on !

“The results from the first round of vote counting strengthen our confidence that, from this summer, France will have a president in favor of reforms for the first time.” Comments from Stefan Kreuzkamp, Chief investment Officer Deutsche Asset (...)

April 21

Opinion French Elections: What would Macron’s victory mean for markets?

According to Philip Dicken, Head of European Equities and Francis Ellison Client Portfolio Manager, European Equities at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, if Emmanuel Macron were elected, the environment would suit active investors and reinforce their potential to find (...)

April 18

Opinion French elections – Place your bets, last call

While a moderate candidate is the most likely victor in our assessment, the situation remains fluid with little risk priced in. In such an environment, we believe it is important to protect investors in our multi asset portfolios from market shocks. We have tactically (...)

April 12

Opinion Room to run for reflationary assets

Most reflation trades aren’t crowded or expensive, our research suggests. U.S. stock prices more fully reflect the maturing reflationary cycle, and we see better opportunities in Europe, Japan and EM stocks. We also prefer U.S. credit over government (...)

April 6

Opinion Mind the “Trump gap”

Ariel Bezalel, Head of Strategy, Fixed Income, explains his caution on the Trump administration’s ability to deliver fiscal reforms, and why he has increased the duration in his funds for the first time since cutting it last (...)

April 3

Opinion Why US stock market pull back is justified

According to Toby Nangle, Global Co-Head of Asset Allocation, Head of MultiAsset, EMEA and Maya Bhandari, Portfolio Manager, Multi-Asset, Columbia Threadneedle reduces weighting to US equities from neutral to underweight in multi-asset (...)

March 27

Opinion Dear US equities …

As shown by the correlation between the risk premium and productivity trend growth, the current 5.9% risk premium anticipates a return to productivity gains at 3%, which is the level we saw during the dot com boom at the end of the (...)

March 20

Opinion Populists disappointed as markets welcome Dutch election outcome

According to Lukas Daalder, CIO Robeco Investment Solutions & Léon Cornelissen, Chief Economist at RobecoHaving said that, we should not overstate the impact: the rate hike that the US Federal Reserve administered yesterday has been the more dominant factor in financial (...)

March 20

Opinion Show Me The Money

The U.S. and indeed the global economy is walking a fine line due to increasing leverage and the potential for too high (or too low) interest rates to wreak havoc on an increasingly stressed financial system. Be more concerned about the return of your money than the return (...)

March 3

Opinion Happiness Runs

A client asked me recently when the Fed or other central banks would ever be able to sell their assets back into the market. My answer was "NEVER". A $12 trillion global central bank balance sheet is PERMANENT - and growing at over $1 trillion a year, thanks to the ECB and (...)

February 28

Opinion Will 2017 herald a commodity bull market?

According to David Donora, Head of Commodities, Columbia Threadneedle, after commodity prices bottomed in early 2016, demand is outstripping supply once again, suggesting the next bull market may be approaching...

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Opinion Quantitative Management: French Managers make resistance

Despite respectable performances, French quantitative managers are struggling to significantly increase their assets. Is it the fault of too cold local institutional?

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Opinion Bank of Japan: the impossible task

The governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), Haruhiko Kuroda, was given a clear mandate by the Prime Minister in 2013, to end the deflationary pressure which had been weighing on the country since 1998. In order to do so, the governor implemented an ultra-aggressive monetary (...)

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Opinion Combining Active and Passive management in a Portfolio

In recent years, long-held ideas on portfolio construction have been called into question. Investors can now choose from a range of “smart beta” strategies, offering exposure to market risk premia in a systematic, transparent fashion. Where does the dividing line between (...)

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Opinion Hour of truth comes for the flexible funds industry

According to Tarek Issaoui, Head of Cross Asset Flexible Solutions at THEAM, coming months and years will most probably see more differentiation between the performance of flexible funds. As diversification benefits become less important, drawdown management will develop (...)

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Opinion Perspective and real solvency of banks

Can a universal bank go bankrupt ? An objective, rigorous and professional answer is built in three stages: credibility of the banks performed stress tests - assessment of prudential regulation to come - understanding the evolution of the banking business (...)

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Opinion When Smart Is Not That Smart

Can Beta Become Smarter? Nobel Prize-winning economist William Sharpe introduced the notions of “beta” and “alpha” decades ago. Put simply, Sharpe defined beta as a measure of a portfolio’s sensitivity relative to the market. Under this definition, it is difficult to fathom how (...)

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Opinion Launching a hedge fund: reputation first!

Although capital requirements are much more important now than they were a dozen years ago, it is reputation which is all important...

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Opinion Fitch: China Policy Shift Prioritises Growth Over Debt Problem

Chinese government directives last week concerning local government debt signal a potentially significant policy shift to prioritise growth over managing the country’s debt problem, says Fitch Ratings.

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Opinion Don’t cry for Argentina

In accordance with the Right Upon Future Offers or RUFO clause (similar to a conventional clause requiring creditors to be treated pari passu) contained in the 2005 agreement on the restructuring of the debt of the exchange bondholders (preventing Argentina from making more (...)

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Opinion “Brexit”: dampening the downside but ready for opportunities

Paul O’Connor, Head of Multi-Asset, gives an update on the risks and opportunities in the run-up to the June EU referendum. With less than 40 days until the vote, opinion polls are fairly stable and suggest “remain” will be the outcome. However, the material risk of “Brexit” (...)

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Opinion Eurozone inflation returns to dispel deflation

According to Azad Zangana, Economist at Schroders, for the European Central Bank (ECB), the faster than expected rise in inflation is unlikely to change its outlook or path of monetary stimulus. The ECB always had a more optimistic forecast than the consensus, and so will (...)

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Opinion What does Brexit mean to Property Investors & Developers?

Initial shock at the prospect of leaving the EU sent the markets into decline, but have they not reacted pretty much as anticipated? Never letting a crisis go without opportunity, selling high to force a low, and then buy back? An analysis from Rick Nicholls, Managing (...)

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Opinion A negative interest rate has one benefit: It forces Germans to reconsider their investment behavior

According to Stefan Kreuzkamp, Chief Investment Officer at Deutsche Asset, as we approached this negative interest rate scenario, there have been some winners and many losers. German savers are in the losing camp because their exposure to equities and real estate is below (...)

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Opinion LTRO – game changer or not?

The ECB announced its second long-term refinancing operation (LTRO) on Wednesday. The auction led to 800 banks tapping the ECB for EUR 530bn in three year funding at 1%.

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Opinion Brexit referendum: more volatility ahead for Sterling

According to James Butterfill, Head of Research at ETF Securities comments, Brexit is the mother of all market uncertainties: legal, political, economic, polling and currency risk combining to make any confidence about the short-term outlook (...)

Focus

Opinion Psychology and smart beta

‘Smart beta’ sounds like an oxymoron. How smart can it be to continue using the same strategy in such fickle markets? A portfolio manager calling on all his skills (‘alpha’) in analysing market environments (the source of ‘beta’) should be able to outperform an unchanged (...)

Focus

Mory Doré’s column

Mory Doré’s views on monetary policy, asset allocation, financial management of banks and understanding of crises

Éclairages Économiques Notebook

The association Éclairages Économiques share with us analysis mostly relying on current research on various economics issues

Selection: Prospects

Regulation Regulatory prospects: 2012 and beyond

2009 was a year of intense reflection on the functioning of the financial sector. There followed an intense regulatory activity in 2010, unfortunately with few formal adoptions of regulations. 2011 marked the surge of the will to succeed with provisional schedules. Where do (...)

Reading An Economic Approach to Marriage

Marriages are not always very stable. A divorce rate of 50 % in developed countries serves to prove. We ask ourselves if it is possible to form stable relationships. An economic analysis may be able to answer this (...)

Note Aging population poses new opportunities for global investment managers

Early conclusions from ongoing SimCorp StrategyLab research point to demographic changes as a key factor influencing the future of the global investment management industry.

Note Launch of green bonds

The term «Green Bonds» is more frequently used to describe a market that should mature very fast in order to deal with numerous requests for investments in the field of green infrastructure projects.

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