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March 27

Opinion Dear US equities …

As shown by the correlation between the risk premium and productivity trend growth, the current 5.9% risk premium anticipates a return to productivity gains at 3%, which is the level we saw during the dot com boom at the end of the (...)

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Populists disappointed as markets welcome Dutch election outcome

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March 3

Opinion Happiness Runs

A client asked me recently when the Fed or other central banks would ever be able to sell their assets back into the market. My answer was "NEVER". A $12 trillion global central bank balance sheet is PERMANENT - and growing at over $1 trillion a year, thanks to the ECB and (...)

February 28

Opinion Will 2017 herald a commodity bull market?

According to David Donora, Head of Commodities, Columbia Threadneedle, after commodity prices bottomed in early 2016, demand is outstripping supply once again, suggesting the next bull market may be approaching...

February 27

Opinion Riding a global earnings upswing

Upbeat global earnings are confirming that the benefits of reflation − rising wages, growth and inflation − are spreading beyond the U.S. We see room for more upside for corporate profits, especially in Europe and (...)

February 22

Opinion Opportunities in Mexico despite Trump

I recently met with a number of companies in Mexico. Obviously it is a very topical time to be in that part of the world, given everything President Trump has said and done to shift the tone of the US’s relationship with its southern neighbour. I came away from the trip (...)

February 16

Opinion So long, bond bull market

According to Jim Cielinski, Global Head of Fixed Income, Columbia Threadneedle, Key drivers shaping bond markets have changed. Keeping a global perspective and knowing which macro signals to watch for can help you prepare for changes in bond (...)

February 9

Opinion Upgrading European equities; downgrading EM debt

We are upgrading our view of European equities to overweight from neutral. We see European stocks as big beneficiaries of the broadening global reflationary environment and believe investors are too skeptical of the region’s (...)

February 6

Opinion Protecting against Protectionism : Why is deglobalisation gaining momentum and what should investors do about it?

The headwinds to globalisation are more structural than cyclical, which means those in favour of open markets have a serious challenge to overcome.

February 1

Opinion Hour of truth comes for the flexible funds industry

According to Tarek Issaoui, Head of Cross Asset Flexible Solutions at THEAM, coming months and years will most probably see more differentiation between the performance of flexible funds. As diversification benefits become less important, drawdown management will develop (...)

January 16

Opinion Caution will be needed in emerging markets in 2017, waiting to find the right entry point

2016 has been a better year for emerging market returns after underperforming for many years. However it has been a volatile year and one has had to be an active manger, being selective, tactical and rotating between asset classes and currencies to maximize (...)

January 10

Opinion Tighter Labor Markets Inspire Further Reflation and Rate Normalization

At the end of 2016, the nonfarm payroll print came in at 156,000 jobs gained for the month of December, which was a bit under the consensus expectation of 180,000 jobs, but it still represents a solid number for a labor market that needs to be regarded as very close to, if (...)

January 5

Opinion Positioning portfolios for 2017

We see reflation − rising nominal growth, wages and inflation – accelerating globally in 2017, led by the U.S. This theme is central to how we suggest positioning portfolios for the coming year, including our preference for value stocks over bond (...)

January 4

Opinion Generali Investments’ 2016 Year Review: European High Yield Bonds

For the European high yield bond market, 2016 was marked by three distinct phases and some defining moments. In contrast to normally favorable seasonal trends, the beginning of the year saw an abrupt sell-off which lasted for the first forty days on the back of a global (...)

December 2016

Opinion 2017 outlook: China equities

Charlie Awdry, China portfolio manager, shares his views on the prospects for Chinese stocks in 2017. He believes the focus on high quality growth companies exposed to long-term consumer trends and cyclical value stocks places his portfolios in good stead to deliver (...)

December 2016

Opinion Asian Dividend Income: cautiously optimistic in 2017

Michael Kerley and Sat Duhra, Co-Managers of the Henderson Asian Dividend Income Strategy, provide their outlook for 2017. While macro events will continue to dominate markets, Asia’s strong potential for dividend growth remains the key reason why investors should remain (...)

December 2016

Opinion It is a good time to invest in US equities

David Pyle, portfolio manager of the Robeco BP US Large Cap Equities Fund, believes that now is a good time to invest in US equities despite the record index levels.

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Opinion Don’t cry for Argentina

In accordance with the Right Upon Future Offers or RUFO clause (similar to a conventional clause requiring creditors to be treated pari passu) contained in the 2005 agreement on the restructuring of the debt of the exchange bondholders (preventing Argentina from making more (...)

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Opinion Benchmarking: The Multi-Asset Class Exception

Ask any active fund manager about his benchmark, and he will have a ready-made answer. Even fixed-income managers have plenty of indices to choose from. The call is trickier for diversified fund managers...

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Opinion Portfolio decarbonisation: making sure tomorrow never dies

The need to de-carbonise portfolios seems to have been broadly accepted, and many initiatives have been launched by investors on this topic: the Portfolio Decarbonisation Coalition, the Montreal Pledge, and events such as the Climate Finance Day, to name only a (...)

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Opinion So long, bond bull market

According to Jim Cielinski, Global Head of Fixed Income, Columbia Threadneedle, Key drivers shaping bond markets have changed. Keeping a global perspective and knowing which macro signals to watch for can help you prepare for changes in bond (...)

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Opinion « Commodities and emerging markets: must-have investments or speculative bubbles »

Now that growth is back, emerging countries are in favour with many investors. Economic growth in these zones means commodities can also be profitable investments...

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Opinion The gold market is a «bubble ready to burst» !

According to U.S. bank Wells Fargo, speculative demand pushed the gold market to « a bubble that is about to explode »…

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Opinion Overview of Quantitative Finance in France

A short review of quantitative finance in France under the lens of the Next Finance website: Profile of quants, origins and outlook of the industry.

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Opinion What is the outlook for oil prices?

Oil prices have been fluctuating widely this summer. Such volatility adds to the uncertainty facing consumer and businesses and raises doubts about future oil prices. Analysis by Jeanne Asseraf-Bitton, Head of Lyxor Cross Asset (...)

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Opinion Will 2017 herald a commodity bull market?

According to David Donora, Head of Commodities, Columbia Threadneedle, after commodity prices bottomed in early 2016, demand is outstripping supply once again, suggesting the next bull market may be approaching...

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Opinion Oil : turning point is at hand

Roberto Cominotto, Investment Director for energy equities at GAM, is convinced that a sustainable turning point in the oil market is within reach, thanks to the decline in US production.

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Opinion Outlook Brazil

Brazil is in recession territory. The country’s fiscal consolidation plan had a major set-back in July as the finance minister Joaquim Levy announced a significant downward revision of the government’s primary fiscal surplus targets. In august, S&P placed Brazil’s foreign (...)

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Opinion Are french OAT overvalued ?

According to John Gilbert, CIO of the Berkshire Hathaway’s subsidiary General Re-New England AM, French 10-year bonds should yield between 4.5% and 5%, closer to Italian and Spanish bonds rather than German ones. However, This opinion is not shared by the majority of the (...)

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Opinion Piketty and Plutonomy: The revenge of inequality

When wealth and income are as concentrated as they are, and expected (a la Piketty) to get even more so, examining the “average” consumer or “average” investor makes little sense. Examining the fat tail – the behavior of the plutonomists, rather than that of the multitudinous (...)

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Opinion How Could They?

According to William H. Gross, markets are reaching the point of low return and diminishing liquidity. Investors may want to begin to take some chips off the table: raise asset quality, reduce duration, and prepare for at least a halt of asset appreciation engineered upon a (...)

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Opinion It is a good time to invest in US equities

David Pyle, portfolio manager of the Robeco BP US Large Cap Equities Fund, believes that now is a good time to invest in US equities despite the record index levels.

Focus

Opinion Combining différent styles for risk premia strategies

According to Ronen Israel, principal at AQR Capital Management, four investment “styles” — Value, Momentum, Carry and Defensive — have emerged as compelling sources of alternative returns, backed by economic theory and decades of data across geographies and asset (...)

Focus

Mory Doré’s column

Mory Doré’s views on monetary policy, asset allocation, financial management of banks and understanding of crises

Éclairages Économiques Notebook

The association Éclairages Économiques share with us analysis mostly relying on current research on various economics issues

Selection: Prospects

Regulation Regulatory prospects: 2012 and beyond

2009 was a year of intense reflection on the functioning of the financial sector. There followed an intense regulatory activity in 2010, unfortunately with few formal adoptions of regulations. 2011 marked the surge of the will to succeed with provisional schedules. Where do (...)

Reading An Economic Approach to Marriage

Marriages are not always very stable. A divorce rate of 50 % in developed countries serves to prove. We ask ourselves if it is possible to form stable relationships. An economic analysis may be able to answer this (...)

Note Aging population poses new opportunities for global investment managers

Early conclusions from ongoing SimCorp StrategyLab research point to demographic changes as a key factor influencing the future of the global investment management industry.

Note Launch of green bonds

The term «Green Bonds» is more frequently used to describe a market that should mature very fast in order to deal with numerous requests for investments in the field of green infrastructure projects.

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