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June 22

Opinion CalPERS Private Equity Team Helps Strengthen the Fund

According to Henry Jones is chair of the CalPERS Investment Committee and vice president of the Board, nothing is more important to portfolio earnings than having the right mix of investments — and few investments are as essential to CalPERS’ success as private (...)


Paris Agreement : With the US abdicating its responsibility, the leadership will be taken up by others


Brazil : Political risk is back


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May 23

Opinion European equities: Back to basics

Following the French election, European equity markets are breathing a sigh of relief. While some structural challenges remain, strong fundamentals point towards continued European equity outperformance, triggered by reduced political tail (...)

May 22

Opinion Brazil’s stockmarket and currency have fallen sharply on concerns about a new political crisis in Latin America’s largest economy

According to Matthew Vaight, Manager of M&G Global Emerging Markets, investors are worried that the revelations could lead to political turmoil and jeopardise the government’s plans to revive the Brazilian economy...

May 10

Opinion Emmanuel Macron has been elected President of France: what is the outlook for the markets?

The second round of the French presidential elections has led to victory for Emmanuel Macron, who achieved more than 66% of votes. This result marks a clear watershed with traditional French politics over the past 50 years, as it is the first time that none of the mainstream (...)

May 9

Opinion The French election represents a win for EU continuity and integration.

According to David Lafferty, Chief strategist, Natixis Global Asset Management, the French election represents a win for EU continuity and integration. As Le Pen risk passes, the next hurdle for the EU project is likely to be the Italian banks which remain mired in (...)

May 9

Opinion France election: Macron wins big

The French election result confirms our view that markets until recently had overstated European political risks. Italian political risk and the country’s fragile banking system could move back into focus soon, however, particularly if the likelihood of early elections in (...)

May 9

Opinion French election 2017: Markets march on

The centrist candidate’s victory is seen as a positive for European stability, something which supports the global reflation trend that has been building up since last summer. Economic data in Europe, Asia and the US has been improving, underpinning traditional risk assets, (...)

May 3

Opinion Government bonds: caution ahead

Geopolitical forces suppressing global government bond yields have somewhat dissipated after the French first-round vote. We see Fed rate rise expectations returning as a bond market driver, justifying a cautious stance on sovereign (...)

April 25

Opinion French elections : Europe lives on !

“The results from the first round of vote counting strengthen our confidence that, from this summer, France will have a president in favor of reforms for the first time.” Comments from Stefan Kreuzkamp, Chief investment Officer Deutsche Asset (...)

April 21

Opinion French Elections: What would Macron’s victory mean for markets?

According to Philip Dicken, Head of European Equities and Francis Ellison Client Portfolio Manager, European Equities at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, if Emmanuel Macron were elected, the environment would suit active investors and reinforce their potential to find (...)

April 18

Opinion French elections – Place your bets, last call

While a moderate candidate is the most likely victor in our assessment, the situation remains fluid with little risk priced in. In such an environment, we believe it is important to protect investors in our multi asset portfolios from market shocks. We have tactically (...)

April 12

Opinion Room to run for reflationary assets

Most reflation trades aren’t crowded or expensive, our research suggests. U.S. stock prices more fully reflect the maturing reflationary cycle, and we see better opportunities in Europe, Japan and EM stocks. We also prefer U.S. credit over government (...)

April 6

Opinion Mind the “Trump gap”

Ariel Bezalel, Head of Strategy, Fixed Income, explains his caution on the Trump administration’s ability to deliver fiscal reforms, and why he has increased the duration in his funds for the first time since cutting it last (...)

April 3

Opinion Why US stock market pull back is justified

According to Toby Nangle, Global Co-Head of Asset Allocation, Head of MultiAsset, EMEA and Maya Bhandari, Portfolio Manager, Multi-Asset, Columbia Threadneedle reduces weighting to US equities from neutral to underweight in multi-asset (...)

March 27

Opinion Dear US equities …

As shown by the correlation between the risk premium and productivity trend growth, the current 5.9% risk premium anticipates a return to productivity gains at 3%, which is the level we saw during the dot com boom at the end of the (...)

March 20

Opinion Populists disappointed as markets welcome Dutch election outcome

According to Lukas Daalder, CIO Robeco Investment Solutions & Léon Cornelissen, Chief Economist at RobecoHaving said that, we should not overstate the impact: the rate hike that the US Federal Reserve administered yesterday has been the more dominant factor in financial (...)

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Opinion Piketty and Plutonomy: The revenge of inequality

When wealth and income are as concentrated as they are, and expected (a la Piketty) to get even more so, examining the “average” consumer or “average” investor makes little sense. Examining the fat tail – the behavior of the plutonomists, rather than that of the multitudinous (...)


Opinion Why US stock market pull back is justified

According to Toby Nangle, Global Co-Head of Asset Allocation, Head of MultiAsset, EMEA and Maya Bhandari, Portfolio Manager, Multi-Asset, Columbia Threadneedle reduces weighting to US equities from neutral to underweight in multi-asset (...)


Opinion Anatomy of the European Banks Rout – AT1 bonds

European bank stocks have collapsed so far this year whilst their credit default swaps have risen rapidly. Surely the credit and equity markets are telling us something? – Europe’s nascent economic recovery is over? Negative rates are killing net interest margins? They don’t (...)


Opinion The Euro, a foreign currency?

The Euro is, in principle, the common currency of the Europeans, however the crisis of sovereign has uncovered something completely unexpected and previously hidden. The Euro is, in fact, proving itself to be a foreign (...)


Opinion BlackRock Investment Institute’s Mid-Year 2016 Global Investment Outlook

More volatility looms for the global markets, torn between anxiety over the fallout of the UK’s vote to exit the European Union (Brexit) and the prospect of a strengthening U.S. economy, according to the BlackRock Investment Institute’s Mid-Year 2016 Global Investment (...)


Opinion What is “risk free” ?

Would it be conceivable that top-quality corporates can take over the baton of being the “risk free” investment of choice? Nestle default protection is cheaper than German sovereign protection and Wal-Mart default protection is cheaper than United States sovereign (...)


Opinion Fitch: China Policy Shift Prioritises Growth Over Debt Problem

Chinese government directives last week concerning local government debt signal a potentially significant policy shift to prioritise growth over managing the country’s debt problem, says Fitch Ratings.


Opinion Don’t cry for Argentina

In accordance with the Right Upon Future Offers or RUFO clause (similar to a conventional clause requiring creditors to be treated pari passu) contained in the 2005 agreement on the restructuring of the debt of the exchange bondholders (preventing Argentina from making more (...)


Opinion “Brexit”: dampening the downside but ready for opportunities

Paul O’Connor, Head of Multi-Asset, gives an update on the risks and opportunities in the run-up to the June EU referendum. With less than 40 days until the vote, opinion polls are fairly stable and suggest “remain” will be the outcome. However, the material risk of “Brexit” (...)


Opinion Asia’s new middle class gets mobile

“China’s huge, new and affluent middle class have broadened their horizons. Getting access to the best healthcare, education and tourist destinations is at the top of their priority list and they are keener than ever to travel overseas to find them.” Jason Pidcock, manager of (...)


Opinion Eurozone inflation returns to dispel deflation

According to Azad Zangana, Economist at Schroders, for the European Central Bank (ECB), the faster than expected rise in inflation is unlikely to change its outlook or path of monetary stimulus. The ECB always had a more optimistic forecast than the consensus, and so will (...)


Opinion Brexit referendum: more volatility ahead for Sterling

According to James Butterfill, Head of Research at ETF Securities comments, Brexit is the mother of all market uncertainties: legal, political, economic, polling and currency risk combining to make any confidence about the short-term outlook (...)


Opinion Equities are cheap . . . and rightfully so!

Corporate earnings have never been higher. Yet, sovereign bond yields have never been lower. Have markets overreacted? Are equities a bargain?


Opinion The European Central Bank (ECB) have very much taken the ‘kitchen sink’ approach

According to Mitul Patel, Head of Interest Rates, Henderson Global Investors, The European Central Bank (ECB) have very much taken the ‘kitchen sink’ approach, surprising market expectations in a variety of ways...


Opinion Stuck between Europe and China

For investors in emerging markets, the positive dynamics in China, on the one hand, and the malaise in Europe, on the other, are causing perplexity.


Opinion Psychology and smart beta

‘Smart beta’ sounds like an oxymoron. How smart can it be to continue using the same strategy in such fickle markets? A portfolio manager calling on all his skills (‘alpha’) in analysing market environments (the source of ‘beta’) should be able to outperform an unchanged (...)


Mory Doré’s column

Mory Doré’s views on monetary policy, asset allocation, financial management of banks and understanding of crises

Éclairages Économiques Notebook

The association Éclairages Économiques share with us analysis mostly relying on current research on various economics issues

Selection: Prospects

Regulation Regulatory prospects: 2012 and beyond

2009 was a year of intense reflection on the functioning of the financial sector. There followed an intense regulatory activity in 2010, unfortunately with few formal adoptions of regulations. 2011 marked the surge of the will to succeed with provisional schedules. Where do (...)

Reading An Economic Approach to Marriage

Marriages are not always very stable. A divorce rate of 50 % in developed countries serves to prove. We ask ourselves if it is possible to form stable relationships. An economic analysis may be able to answer this (...)

Note Aging population poses new opportunities for global investment managers

Early conclusions from ongoing SimCorp StrategyLab research point to demographic changes as a key factor influencing the future of the global investment management industry.

Note Launch of green bonds

The term «Green Bonds» is more frequently used to describe a market that should mature very fast in order to deal with numerous requests for investments in the field of green infrastructure projects.

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