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November 9

Opinion The end of accomodative policies, a new challenge for asset managers

According to Arnaud Faller, Deputy Managing Director, Chief Investment Officer at CPR AM, in this environment, we shall clearly favour equities over credit investments in developed markets, while leveraging on current opportunities in emerging bond and equity (...)

Opinion

India: After a period of euphoria, doubts are resurfacing

Opinion

The triumph of Abenomics

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November 6

Opinion BoE to proceed very cautiously following its first rate hike in a decade

The Bank of England (BoE) has delivered a much-anticipated 25bp rate hike, tightening its monetary stance for the first time in over 10 years (or 3,773 days to be precise). The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) 7-2 vote on rates was at the hawkish end of market (...)

October 24

Opinion Japan Elections: What an Abe victory means

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) of Japan has emerged victorious in Japan’s October 2017 lower house snap election. The result exceeded expectations. On its own, Abe’s LDP secured more than half the number of lower house seats. As a coalition, (...)

October 19

Opinion Corporate bond opportunities in a late-cycle market

According to Alasdair Ross Head of Investment Grade and Senior Portfolio Manager, EMEA, Global corporate portfolios offer issuer and security selection alpha potential over and above that found in US Dollar, Euro and Sterling only (...)

October 19

Opinion Who will by the next Chair of the US Federal Reserve?

President Trump has signalled he is close to announcing his choice of the next Fed Chairman, from a shortlist of five candidates.

October 9

Opinion Gold, Mines and Natural Resources: The greenback picks up

Having reached their highest point since August 2016 ($1,357.6/oz), gold prices slumped, falling below $1,300/oz and weighing on their 100-day average. Janet Yellen’s more hawkish speech at the last FOMC pushed up to 70% the likelihood the Fed will raise key rates in (...)

September 18

Opinion Gold, mines and natural resources: Acceleration in momentum

After testing the $1200/oz. support in early July ($1204.7/oz. on 10 July), the gold price once again took on the psychological resistance level of $1300/oz. It brushed up against this barrier once, on 18 August ($1301/oz.), but not until late in the month did it cross it at (...)

September 11

Opinion Politics are not the only risk on the horizon

As the tenth anniversary of the Global Financial Crisis passed this month, our thoughts turned to the ongoing muted volatility in financial markets. The ‘Goldilocks’ conditions of improving growth without price pressures are something of a surprise, yet appear to be (...)

September 5

Opinion President Trump’s Pick for Fed Chair

With Janet Yellen’s term ending in February 2018, the sweepstakes for Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair is heating up. Media stories about who is favored are appearing with increasing frequency and attracting a lot of attention. Potential candidates are trying to raise their (...)

August 22

Opinion Do the Lessons from 2013’s Taper Tantrum Apply to Today’s Bond Markets?

Short-Term Mispricing of Fed’s Intentions Unlikely to Be As Serious, This Time, Western Asset Predicts

August 10

Opinion Don’t believe everything you read

African elections are back in the headlines, apparently for all the wrong reasons. But according to Aberdeen Asset Management Senior Investment Manager Kevin Daly, the reality is better than some would have you (...)

August 3

Opinion Central banks: from doves to hawks?

In the US, the UK, Sweden and Canada, central bankers have taken on board an economic situation that is coming close to full employment, with a risk of overheating not of inflation, but rather of private debt and asset prices (real estate, (...)

July 27

Opinion The case for Japanese equities

We see further strength in Japanese equities after their recent rally, given an encouraging earnings outlook, relatively low valuations and a stable yen under Japan’s ultra-easy monetary policy.

July 19

Opinion China-US détente eases investor fears

The meeting between President Trump and President Xi in April removes a cloud hanging over the equity market. This comes at a time when fears over debt levels have been well discounted, while growth appears to have stabilised nicely at a relatively high level. Furthermore, (...)

July 19

Opinion Reasons to embrace risk

According to Richard Turnill, BlackRock’s Global Chief Investment Strategist, if we look at the earnings yield of U.S. equities — the implied yield in earnings estimates that makes potential returns comparable to bond yields. U.S. equities look expensive on this basis. But (...)

July 11

Opinion The long unwinding road of quantitative easing

According to Mark Burgess, CIO EMEA and Global Head of Equities, Columbia Threadneedle Investments, an unwinding of QE could cause increased volatility in the markets and a fight for remaining liquidity, as the supply of government bonds starts to (...)

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Opinion Is there Corporate Life after the Euro

Several opinion leaders have started a public debate regarding the possibility to breakup the Euro and return to the former local currencies. In light of this debate, we look at the possible implications of this break-up scenario for companies active on the Euro capital (...)

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Opinion Again and again the bank stress tests

Certainly it never ceases to write about the bank stress tests since it keeps getting more into banks; if proof were needed of the total lack of credibility of those made up to now

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Opinion Perspective and real solvency of banks

Can a universal bank go bankrupt ? An objective, rigorous and professional answer is built in three stages: credibility of the banks performed stress tests - assessment of prudential regulation to come - understanding the evolution of the banking business (...)

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Opinion BoE to proceed very cautiously following its first rate hike in a decade

The Bank of England (BoE) has delivered a much-anticipated 25bp rate hike, tightening its monetary stance for the first time in over 10 years (or 3,773 days to be precise). The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) 7-2 vote on rates was at the hawkish end of market (...)

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Opinion Japan Elections: What an Abe victory means

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) of Japan has emerged victorious in Japan’s October 2017 lower house snap election. The result exceeded expectations. On its own, Abe’s LDP secured more than half the number of lower house seats. As a coalition, (...)

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Opinion Corporate bond opportunities in a late-cycle market

According to Alasdair Ross Head of Investment Grade and Senior Portfolio Manager, EMEA, Global corporate portfolios offer issuer and security selection alpha potential over and above that found in US Dollar, Euro and Sterling only (...)

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Opinion The Euro will survive, but not the current Euro zone !

If the existence of the euro is not challenged, it is the case of the euro zone in its current configuration. In the same way that cohabitation between countries with maintaining parity exchange had become impossible in the EMS, cohabitation has become impossible within (...)

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Opinion Euro-dollar outlook

So many reasons to sell the Euro against the dollar. Nevertheless we can expect a fall of the euro in the second half of 2011. The dollar should continue to remain for now a safe haven despite the monstrous imbalances in the US economy and because of the real risk of (...)

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Opinion Mathematical models in finance and embedded risk underestimation

The statistical assumption of normal (log-normal) distribution of stock returns (prices) is not that strong and tail events’ occurrence is largely undervalued. Nevertheless, this modeling framework has been widely used for strong (...)

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Opinion Oil : turning point is at hand

Roberto Cominotto, Investment Director for energy equities at GAM, is convinced that a sustainable turning point in the oil market is within reach, thanks to the decline in US production.

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Opinion Taking the Silk Road

The year of the goat, which has just begun, looks likely to herald a major push by China to establish a new “Silk Road”, the adoption of a new five-year plan to boost the country’s social and economic development and a pick-up in the pace of financial reform, according to Ross (...)

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Opinion Slowing China growth to prompt further stimulus

According to Craig Botham, Economist, Emerging Markets at Schroders, China’s economy expanded 7.3% in the final quarter of last year, beating expectations and recording a 7.4% expansion for the year as a whole, but failing to meet the government’s 7.5% (...)

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Opinion It is a good time to invest in US equities

David Pyle, portfolio manager of the Robeco BP US Large Cap Equities Fund, believes that now is a good time to invest in US equities despite the record index levels.

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Opinion Asset management: How to interpret managers awards?

One needs just to visit the premises of an asset management firm or to browse its website to find trophies and awards proudly displayed. What credit should be given to these awards?

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Opinion ECB escalates war on cash with death of €500 Note

The impending death of the €500 note has huge implications on the conduct and shape of future monetary policy. We believe the upcoming decision to stop printing the bill goes beyond anti-money laundering, which is commonly cited as the (...)

Focus

Opinion Psychology and smart beta

‘Smart beta’ sounds like an oxymoron. How smart can it be to continue using the same strategy in such fickle markets? A portfolio manager calling on all his skills (‘alpha’) in analysing market environments (the source of ‘beta’) should be able to outperform an unchanged (...)

Focus

Mory Doré’s column

Mory Doré’s views on monetary policy, asset allocation, financial management of banks and understanding of crises

Éclairages Économiques Notebook

The association Éclairages Économiques share with us analysis mostly relying on current research on various economics issues

Selection: Prospects

Regulation Regulatory prospects: 2012 and beyond

2009 was a year of intense reflection on the functioning of the financial sector. There followed an intense regulatory activity in 2010, unfortunately with few formal adoptions of regulations. 2011 marked the surge of the will to succeed with provisional schedules. Where do (...)

Reading An Economic Approach to Marriage

Marriages are not always very stable. A divorce rate of 50 % in developed countries serves to prove. We ask ourselves if it is possible to form stable relationships. An economic analysis may be able to answer this (...)

Note Aging population poses new opportunities for global investment managers

Early conclusions from ongoing SimCorp StrategyLab research point to demographic changes as a key factor influencing the future of the global investment management industry.

Note Launch of green bonds

The term «Green Bonds» is more frequently used to describe a market that should mature very fast in order to deal with numerous requests for investments in the field of green infrastructure projects.

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