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January 16

Opinion Caution will be needed in emerging markets in 2017, waiting to find the right entry point

2016 has been a better year for emerging market returns after underperforming for many years. However it has been a volatile year and one has had to be an active manger, being selective, tactical and rotating between asset classes and currencies to maximize (...)

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Tighter Labor Markets Inspire Further Reflation and Rate Normalization

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Generali Investments’ 2016 Year Review: European High Yield Bonds

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January 5

Opinion Positioning portfolios for 2017

We see reflation − rising nominal growth, wages and inflation – accelerating globally in 2017, led by the U.S. This theme is central to how we suggest positioning portfolios for the coming year, including our preference for value stocks over bond (...)

December 2016

Opinion 2017 outlook: China equities

Charlie Awdry, China portfolio manager, shares his views on the prospects for Chinese stocks in 2017. He believes the focus on high quality growth companies exposed to long-term consumer trends and cyclical value stocks places his portfolios in good stead to deliver (...)

December 2016

Opinion Asian Dividend Income: cautiously optimistic in 2017

Michael Kerley and Sat Duhra, Co-Managers of the Henderson Asian Dividend Income Strategy, provide their outlook for 2017. While macro events will continue to dominate markets, Asia’s strong potential for dividend growth remains the key reason why investors should remain (...)

December 2016

Opinion It is a good time to invest in US equities

David Pyle, portfolio manager of the Robeco BP US Large Cap Equities Fund, believes that now is a good time to invest in US equities despite the record index levels.

December 2016

Opinion Reasons to like emerging markets

Risks to EM equities and bonds have increased since the U.S. election, with the incoming Trump administration’s policies on trade uncertain. Yet a cyclical growth pick-up benefitting EMs outweighs these risks for now, we believe, and supports selectively investing in EM (...)

December 2016

Opinion Equity markets are being complacent on Italy & Europe

According to James Butterfill, Head of Research & Investment Strategy at ETF Securities, the Italian referendum yesterday signified a worrying trend for the rest of Europe in confirming the rise of populist parties in the EU, and particularly important given that 70% of (...)

November 2016

Opinion From “low volatility growth” to “high volatility value”

In our view, the recent sharp market rotation that we have seen – from “low volatility growth” to “high volatility value” – is a continuation and acceleration of the trend change that has been underway since the third quarter of this year. The turning point for “quality growth” (...)

November 2016

Opinion Global bond markets : « too far, too fast ? »

Global bond markets, especially emerging markets, took it on the chin over the past five trading days as investors reacted to the U.S. election results and soaring expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in (...)

November 2016

Opinion Trump leads Republican sweep as US rejects status quo

Global uncertainty to remain as election result signals further rolling back of globalisation themes, with emerging markets likely to see greatest impact. For the US, the Republican sweep in both houses will facilitate Trump’s agenda with a focus on domestic growth, spending (...)

November 2016

Opinion A Trump presidency

It’s Brexit all over again. The surge in anti-establishment sentiment is definitively global. Brexit can no longer be dismissed as a freak event. It is a trend. Donald Trump has won, by defying his party, the media, and conventional politics. Populism is coming to power. The (...)

November 2016

Opinion A Trump card in the US deck

US voters have put their faith in Donald Trump, electing him as the 45th US President. As with the “Brexit” vote in the UK, this can be seen as another victory for the politics of anger currently sweeping across Western (...)

November 2016

Opinion Trump on the Brink – Geopolitical & Market Implications

Donald Trump’s ability to resonate with the populist mood has proven successful– populism in the developed world is on a worrying rise. We have collated what we believe are the most important investment implications of Donald Trump winning the US (...)

November 2016

Opinion Trump victory: a non-event for markets?

The Fed should maintain its data-dependent normalization course with a rate hike likely mid-December 2016. Fed fund futures signal the market has not changed its mind on the Fed staying dovish in 2017. Janet Yellen’s four-year mandate as chair of the Board of Governors will (...)

November 2016

Opinion President-elect Trump. 5 predictions on what happens next in the global economy and markets.

The votes are in and it is clear. For the second time in 2016 we have had a major rejection of the political status quo. Following on from the shock UK referendum result, a Trump victory is further evidence that many believe that we have reached peak globalisation and income (...)

November 2016

Opinion What does Brexit mean to Property Investors & Developers?

Initial shock at the prospect of leaving the EU sent the markets into decline, but have they not reacted pretty much as anticipated? Never letting a crisis go without opportunity, selling high to force a low, and then buy back? An analysis from Rick Nicholls, Managing (...)

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Opinion Swiss National Bank (SNB) decided to abandon its minimum exchange-rate floor policy

Salman Ahmed, LOIM’s Global Strategist, has commented on the Swiss National Bank’s policy update this morning. He discusses the implications for the Swiss currency and the wider impact on the eurozone economy.

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Opinion Asian Dividend Income: cautiously optimistic in 2017

Michael Kerley and Sat Duhra, Co-Managers of the Henderson Asian Dividend Income Strategy, provide their outlook for 2017. While macro events will continue to dominate markets, Asia’s strong potential for dividend growth remains the key reason why investors should remain (...)

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Opinion Assessing the oil price shock

The sharp fall in oil prices during the second half of 2014 turned out to be one of the most significant themes of the year. In this piece, Salman Ahmed, Strategist Fixed Income at Lombard Odier IM discusses the economic transmission mechanism and asset market implications (...)

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Opinion There is scope for a deal on Greek debt

The Greek government and its creditors have strong incentives to reach an agreement – and have scope to find a mutually beneficial solutions. Negotiations will be difficult - temporary setbacks could cause bouts of market volatility over the next few months, but these may (...)

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Opinion Dividend discovery

According to Alex Crooke, Head of Global Equity Income at Henderson, consistent dividend growth is generally a sign that a business is doing well and should provide investors with a degree of confidence. If dividends are rising steadily over time, then a firm’s earnings, (...)

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Opinion A more dovish Fed? Taking stock with US dividends

As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (Fed) kept official rates at their current levels when it met on 10 March. Despite inflationary pressure building, the Fed lowered its projections for the pace of future rate hikes given ongoing concerns about the global (...)

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Opinion The Greek crisis takes a new turn

According to Mark Burgess, Chief Investment Officer EMOA and Head of Equity market at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, the European earnings outlook does not look immediately compromised by events in Greece, although this will depend upon the impact on consumer and (...)

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Opinion Greece: referendum reaction

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras won a resounding mandate to reject the package of austerity measures on the table in Greece’s referendum yesterday. This is but the latest twist in a road that increasingly seems to be leading towards Greece’s departure from the (...)

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Opinion ECB escalates war on cash with death of €500 Note

The impending death of the €500 note has huge implications on the conduct and shape of future monetary policy. We believe the upcoming decision to stop printing the bill goes beyond anti-money laundering, which is commonly cited as the (...)

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Opinion The standoff between Greece and its partners is clearly softening

According to Eric Chaney Head of Research at AXA Investment Managers, this will not be the end of the Greek saga, since funding will remain quite challenging until the last tranche of the bailout is disbursed and the interest payments on the bonds held by the ECB are paid to (...)

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Opinion Greece crisis to restrain European equities, but valuations should provide buffer

According to Rory Bateman,head of european equities at Schroders, volatility in markets is likely to continue for an extended period until the ramifications of a potential Greek exit from the euro are fully understood. QE and current valuations could provide some downside (...)

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Opinion BlackRock Investment Institute’s Mid-Year 2016 Global Investment Outlook

More volatility looms for the global markets, torn between anxiety over the fallout of the UK’s vote to exit the European Union (Brexit) and the prospect of a strengthening U.S. economy, according to the BlackRock Investment Institute’s Mid-Year 2016 Global Investment (...)

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Opinion Benchmarking: The Multi-Asset Class Exception

Ask any active fund manager about his benchmark, and he will have a ready-made answer. Even fixed-income managers have plenty of indices to choose from. The call is trickier for diversified fund managers...

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Opinion ‘Brexit’: Positioning for uncertainty

“A UK exit from the European Union would in all likelihood damage the UK’s world standing, throw into question the European project and have the potential to generate a global shock that would spark significant volatility across risk assets,” says Ariel Bezalel, manager of the (...)

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Opinion Are french OAT overvalued ?

According to John Gilbert, CIO of the Berkshire Hathaway’s subsidiary General Re-New England AM, French 10-year bonds should yield between 4.5% and 5%, closer to Italian and Spanish bonds rather than German ones. However, This opinion is not shared by the majority of the (...)

Focus

Opinion Combining différent styles for risk premia strategies

According to Ronen Israel, principal at AQR Capital Management, four investment “styles” — Value, Momentum, Carry and Defensive — have emerged as compelling sources of alternative returns, backed by economic theory and decades of data across geographies and asset (...)

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Mory Doré’s column

Mory Doré’s views on monetary policy, asset allocation, financial management of banks and understanding of crises

Éclairages Économiques Notebook

The association Éclairages Économiques share with us analysis mostly relying on current research on various economics issues

Selection: Prospects

Regulation Regulatory prospects: 2012 and beyond

2009 was a year of intense reflection on the functioning of the financial sector. There followed an intense regulatory activity in 2010, unfortunately with few formal adoptions of regulations. 2011 marked the surge of the will to succeed with provisional schedules. Where do (...)

Reading An Economic Approach to Marriage

Marriages are not always very stable. A divorce rate of 50 % in developed countries serves to prove. We ask ourselves if it is possible to form stable relationships. An economic analysis may be able to answer this (...)

Note Aging population poses new opportunities for global investment managers

Early conclusions from ongoing SimCorp StrategyLab research point to demographic changes as a key factor influencing the future of the global investment management industry.

Note Launch of green bonds

The term «Green Bonds» is more frequently used to describe a market that should mature very fast in order to deal with numerous requests for investments in the field of green infrastructure projects.

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