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December 6

Opinion Equity markets are being complacent on Italy & Europe

According to James Butterfill, Head of Research & Investment Strategy at ETF Securities, the Italian referendum yesterday signified a worrying trend for the rest of Europe in confirming the rise of populist parties in the EU, and particularly important given that 70% of (...)

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From “low volatility growth” to “high volatility value”

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Global bond markets : « too far, too fast ? »

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November 14

Opinion Trump leads Republican sweep as US rejects status quo

Global uncertainty to remain as election result signals further rolling back of globalisation themes, with emerging markets likely to see greatest impact. For the US, the Republican sweep in both houses will facilitate Trump’s agenda with a focus on domestic growth, spending (...)

November 14

Opinion A Trump presidency

It’s Brexit all over again. The surge in anti-establishment sentiment is definitively global. Brexit can no longer be dismissed as a freak event. It is a trend. Donald Trump has won, by defying his party, the media, and conventional politics. Populism is coming to power. The (...)

November 14

Opinion A Trump card in the US deck

US voters have put their faith in Donald Trump, electing him as the 45th US President. As with the “Brexit” vote in the UK, this can be seen as another victory for the politics of anger currently sweeping across Western (...)

November 14

Opinion Trump on the Brink – Geopolitical & Market Implications

Donald Trump’s ability to resonate with the populist mood has proven successful– populism in the developed world is on a worrying rise. We have collated what we believe are the most important investment implications of Donald Trump winning the US (...)

November 14

Opinion Trump victory: a non-event for markets?

The Fed should maintain its data-dependent normalization course with a rate hike likely mid-December 2016. Fed fund futures signal the market has not changed its mind on the Fed staying dovish in 2017. Janet Yellen’s four-year mandate as chair of the Board of Governors will (...)

November 10

Opinion President-elect Trump. 5 predictions on what happens next in the global economy and markets.

The votes are in and it is clear. For the second time in 2016 we have had a major rejection of the political status quo. Following on from the shock UK referendum result, a Trump victory is further evidence that many believe that we have reached peak globalisation and income (...)

November 10

Opinion What does Brexit mean to Property Investors & Developers?

Initial shock at the prospect of leaving the EU sent the markets into decline, but have they not reacted pretty much as anticipated? Never letting a crisis go without opportunity, selling high to force a low, and then buy back? An analysis from Rick Nicholls, Managing (...)

November 8

Opinion A Clinton victory reduces political uncertainty

According to Martin Arnold, Director – FX & Macro Strategist, ETF Securities, a Clinton victory reduces political uncertainty, and takes another excuse away from the Federal Reserve to not raise rates at December FOMC meeting. USD is likely to continue to strengthen, (...)

November 8

Opinion International Equity : Why a Trump victory would not be the worst result

The biggest concern would be if the winning candidate manages to get control of both houses. According to Nick Clay, manager at Newton Investment Management, a subsidiary of BNY Mellon IM group, if that were to happen, then radical policy changes could be set in (...)

November 7

Opinion Curve Steepening – Already Been There?

Most developed market yield curves have suffered bear steepening over the past few weeks, despite quantitative easing (QE).

November 4

Opinion We are increasingly mindful of the threats to risk assets that are looming on the horizon

In a world where a significant segment of government bond yields continue to hover in or near negative territory, the credit cycle looks to be nearing its end, and the devaluation of sterling is dominating the agenda, we are increasingly mindful of the threats to risk assets (...)

October 17

Opinion Hard time for sterling

According to Luc Luyet and Frederik Ducrozet, Asset Allocation & Macro Research, Pictet Wealth Management, the sharp drop of the sterling on Friday 7 October at the start of trading in Asia with the currency declining 6% in the course of twenty minutes was the climax of (...)

October 3

Opinion Rethinking the role of Treasuries

According to Richard Turnill, BlackRock’s Global Chief Investment Strategist, it’s time to rethink the role of U.S. Treasuries in portfolios, and specifically to be cautious of long-duration Treasuries. The risk-reward landscape for longduration Treasuries is (...)

September 29

Opinion Easy money: Could the cure be more damaging than the illness itself?

Given the economic and political headwinds and shocks we have experienced in the first six months of 2016, the summer could easily have been characterised by uncertainty and volatility.

September 28

Opinion Combining différent styles for risk premia strategies

According to Ronen Israel, principal at AQR Capital Management, four investment “styles” — Value, Momentum, Carry and Defensive — have emerged as compelling sources of alternative returns, backed by economic theory and decades of data across geographies and asset (...)

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Opinion Benchmarking: The Multi-Asset Class Exception

Ask any active fund manager about his benchmark, and he will have a ready-made answer. Even fixed-income managers have plenty of indices to choose from. The call is trickier for diversified fund managers...

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Opinion We are increasingly mindful of the threats to risk assets that are looming on the horizon

In a world where a significant segment of government bond yields continue to hover in or near negative territory, the credit cycle looks to be nearing its end, and the devaluation of sterling is dominating the agenda, we are increasingly mindful of the threats to risk assets (...)

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Opinion Brexit : While a “leave” vote is likely to cause a quick sell-off in risk assets, the more important market implications would play out over a much longer time frame.

According to David Lafferty, Chief Market Strategist, Natixis Global Asset Management, event risks that are accurately, or close to accurately, priced are difficult to hedge on the fly...

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Opinion BBB region possible for Scotland’s sovereign risk rating

If the vote for independence is successful, Scotland’s sovereign risk rating could be in the BBB lower investment grade region, according to Director of Sovereign Risk Analysis Jan Randolph of IHS.

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Opinion The gold market is a «bubble ready to burst» !

According to U.S. bank Wells Fargo, speculative demand pushed the gold market to « a bubble that is about to explode »…

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Opinion 2016 could be difficult for markets

According to Paul Markham, global equities portfolio manager at Newton Investment Management, for an overall outlook on equities, it’s too early to tell whether a bad start to the year can be a sign that 2016 will be problematic. However it is true that leadership of markets (...)

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Opinion What outlook for LBO?

After having suffered the effects of the financial crisis of 2008, and contrary to Cassandre who announced the inexorable decline of the LBO industry, it must be said that LBOs have seen a revival of interest since 2010. Is it a real recovery or just a temporary (...)

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Opinion Do the layoffs at Crédit Agricole represent a sharp decline in French banks?

The layoffs have unquestionably impacted the personnel of the French banks but a greater malaise reigns. A top ranked outgoing senior executive considers the current situation as symbolizing an unprecedented weakening of French (...)

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Opinion On the uncertain future for money market funds

In the face of the low money market interest rates, returns offered by investments in money markets products have been declining steadily. While money market fund managers managed to turn in slightly positive performances in 2015, this could prove more daunting in (...)

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Opinion President-elect Trump. 5 predictions on what happens next in the global economy and markets.

The votes are in and it is clear. For the second time in 2016 we have had a major rejection of the political status quo. Following on from the shock UK referendum result, a Trump victory is further evidence that many believe that we have reached peak globalisation and income (...)

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Opinion Bank of Japan surprises markets with inaction

According to Nathan Gibbs, Japanese Equities portfolio manager at Schroders, regardless of the actual level of interest rates or details of policy, the main issue around today’s Bank of Japan decision is one of (...)

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Opinion The broadening impact of technology on society

According to Sebastian Thomas, Head of US technology research and portfolio manager at Allianz Global Investors, artificial intelligence, robotics, self-driving cars, biotechnology, targeted medicine and many other innovations will ultimately impact all facets of our (...)

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Opinion Rethinking the role of Treasuries

According to Richard Turnill, BlackRock’s Global Chief Investment Strategist, it’s time to rethink the role of U.S. Treasuries in portfolios, and specifically to be cautious of long-duration Treasuries. The risk-reward landscape for longduration Treasuries is (...)

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Opinion Jokowi

After ten years of strong growth, the Indonesian economy is slowing considerably. This is because of the falling Chinese demand for commodities, the gradual normalisation of US monetary policy and an inevitable decline in government (...)

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Opinion The emerging markets irony

The lesson to take from this price action is that the “decoupling” arguments should be treated with a healthy dose of scepticism, and any move into global recession would be damaging for the asset classes.

Focus

Opinion Time to Move into Credit

Investors around the world face a dilemma of where to turn in today’s environment of low, or in some cases even negative, bond yields. Roughly 75% of the entire Japanese and German sovereign bond market is now trading at negative yields*. As a consequence investors are (...)

Focus

Mory Doré’s column

Mory Doré’s views on monetary policy, asset allocation, financial management of banks and understanding of crises

Éclairages Économiques Notebook

The association Éclairages Économiques share with us analysis mostly relying on current research on various economics issues

Selection: Prospects

Regulation Regulatory prospects: 2012 and beyond

2009 was a year of intense reflection on the functioning of the financial sector. There followed an intense regulatory activity in 2010, unfortunately with few formal adoptions of regulations. 2011 marked the surge of the will to succeed with provisional schedules. Where do (...)

Reading An Economic Approach to Marriage

Marriages are not always very stable. A divorce rate of 50 % in developed countries serves to prove. We ask ourselves if it is possible to form stable relationships. An economic analysis may be able to answer this (...)

Note Aging population poses new opportunities for global investment managers

Early conclusions from ongoing SimCorp StrategyLab research point to demographic changes as a key factor influencing the future of the global investment management industry.

Note Launch of green bonds

The term «Green Bonds» is more frequently used to describe a market that should mature very fast in order to deal with numerous requests for investments in the field of green infrastructure projects.

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