Opinion Mathematical models in finance and embedded risk underestimation
The statistical assumption of normal (log-normal) distribution of stock returns (prices) is not that strong and tail events’ occurrence is largely undervalued. Nevertheless, this modeling framework has been widely used for strong (...)
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Opinion « Commodities and emerging markets: must-have investments or speculative bubbles »
Now that growth is back, emerging countries are in favour with many investors. Economic growth in these zones means commodities can also be profitable investments...
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Opinion Reviewing the bank stress tests – July 2011
As was seen during the stress tests carried out in July 2010, the latest ones published by the European Banking Authority on the 15th of July 2011 do not include a proper measure of market systemic risk. This hinders their (...)
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Opinion Are french OAT overvalued ?
According to John Gilbert, CIO of the Berkshire Hathaway’s subsidiary General Re-New England AM, French 10-year bonds should yield between 4.5% and 5%, closer to Italian and Spanish bonds rather than German ones. However, This opinion is not shared by the majority of the (...)
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Opinion The Euro, a foreign currency?
The Euro is, in principle, the common currency of the Europeans, however the crisis of sovereign has uncovered something completely unexpected and previously hidden. The Euro is, in fact, proving itself to be a foreign (...)
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Opinion To predict or to adapt?
According to Fabrice Foy, Quantitative Analyst at CCR-AM, we should do the exact opposite of the classical theory: the stock price does not reflect fundamentals, and if it deviates from its fundamental value, it does not necessarily tend to revert (...)
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Opinion Again and again the bank stress tests
Certainly it never ceases to write about the bank stress tests since it keeps getting more into banks; if proof were needed of the total lack of credibility of those made up to now
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Opinion Perspective and real solvency of banks
Can a universal bank go bankrupt ? An objective, rigorous and professional answer is built in three stages: credibility of the banks performed stress tests - assessment of prudential regulation to come - understanding the evolution of the banking business (...)
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Opinion Where’s the Two-Headed Monster?
Many pundits seem to be convinced that lower public sector creditworthiness and higher inflation are inevitable parts of our economic future
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Opinion Overview of Quantitative Finance in France
A short review of quantitative finance in France under the lens of the Next Finance website: Profile of quants, origins and outlook of the industry.
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Opinion The Euro will survive, but not the current Euro zone !
If the existence of the euro is not challenged, it is the case of the euro zone in its current configuration. In the same way that cohabitation between countries with maintaining parity exchange had become impossible in the EMS, cohabitation has become impossible within (...)
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Opinion Predictions for 2011 by BlackRock’s Bob Doll
According to Bob Doll, stocks will outperform bonds and cash and will record a third straight year of double digit percentage returns
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Opinion Decline in Eurozone growth set to continue into 2012
ING Investment Management is warning that a combination of fiscal austerity, a lingering debt crisis and a slow down in external demand will translate into a fall in Eurozone GDP growth from 1.7 to 1.0.
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Opinion Equities as yield assets
Back in the 1950s equities were seen as yield products, being as utility type assets. It was only from the 1960s that stocks were seen as growth assets. 2011 has been a watershed because yields have exceeded bond (...)
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Opinion Putting a number on the Dragon
According to statistics from the Quantitative Guru of JP Morgan AM, the year of the Dragon will tend to be a year of prosperity for US equities with an average performance of 8,3% for the 11 years of the Dragon during this period of 140 years with an annual volatility of (...)
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