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Gold, Mines & Natural Resources…a mixed 2017

Although the year was positive for natural resources overall, their performance lagged the global markets. 2018 could offer better prospects, an uptick in inflation being perhaps the best scenario for the theme.

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Gold prices ended 2017 above the $1300/oz threshold, rising by around 13.3% ($). The weak dollar (Dollar Index), which fell by around 10% against the main currencies, was the main support for the yellow metal. Investors’ risk aversion, for its part, was fairly moderate, and was unable to offer a boost, in fact quite the opposite. US real interest rates had no significant impact, as they were flat over the period. There was a sharp positive change in inflation expectations, on the other hand, starting from mid-year, which could be the surprise for 2018.

As predicted, the FED raised its policy rates at the last FOMC meeting of the year, and once this had taken effect, gold prices rebounded considerably, as in 2015 and 2016.

Arnaud du Plessis , January 2018

Article also available in : English | français

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