September 2018
Opinion Getting to the Truth on Trade, and Yes, Ricardo Can Still Rest In Peace
Trade volumes, trade agreements, and tariffs have been the focus of capital markets over the last year. Capital markets have taken the existing unencumbered trade regime as a given, and priced in the continuation of the existing order of ever-expanding trade and lower (...)
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September 2018
Opinion Greece: the end of bailout program
The end of the Greek bailout program on Aug 20 bears both virtues and risks. While the country is regaining some fiscal room of manoeuvre, there is no longer any additional precautionary funding scheme in place, which means Greece is now reliant on financial market funding (...)
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August 2018
Opinion After the fall
Emerging market bonds have suffered in recent months, but according to Alain-Nsiona Defise, Head of Emerging Corporates, Mary-Therese Barton, Head of Emerging Market Debt at Pictet Asset Management, fears of a renewed currency and debt crunch are (...)
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July 2018
Opinion What alikely NXP-Qcomdeal break means for merger arbitrage
Market conditions have been supportive since early July, but the flattening of the Treasury curve raises questions about the probability of a U.S. recession next year. Fund manager surveys suggest investors have erred on the side of caution (...)
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July 2018
Opinion US fixed income: Buying opportunity or a falling knife?
10 year US Treasury yields crossed the psychologically important 3% threshold in the 2nd quarter, the highest level in four years - buying opportunity or a falling knife? Given these critical levels and an uptick in US inflation, investors are justifiably worried about (...)
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June 2018
Opinion ECB: Bold is beautiful
President Mario Draghi took a bold stance at the ECB press conference on Thursday. Not only did Draghi announce the timeframe for ending the asset purchase programme in 2018 but he also provided forward guidance on the unlikelihood of an interest rate hike until the summer (...)
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June 2018
Opinion Polarisation in the luxury space
GAM’s Scilla Huang Sun evaluates some interesting trends in the luxury market and explains why this is a sector in which active management can add considerable value
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June 2018
Opinion Fed and ECB to stick to exit plans
Following a sharp spike in risk premia in late May on uncertainties about new elections in Italy, markets mildly recovered from their state of emergency.
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June 2018
Opinion Reform is the secret of India’s growth
Since assuming office in 2014, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has put in place a raft of reform measures aimed at strengthening the nation’s infrastructure and economic fundamentals.
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June 2018
Opinion Investing in Japan? Look beyond the trade war rhetoric
The U.S. and China are edging ever closer to a full-blown trade war, but it won’t just be the two superpowers affected. With its equity markets highly correlated to global growth, many view Japan as a potential casualty of the ongoing (...)
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June 2018
Opinion Macro Managers are scratching their heads just like you
Europe took center stage this week, with further developments in the Italian political saga reminding investors that there are still powerful Eurosceptic forces at play and forcing investors to end their hopes of meaningful eurozone reforms. However, fading prospects of (...)
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June 2018
Opinion Back to inflation: The inflation theme enjoys a more favourable momentum in the euro zone
The first estimates of May’s figures show very clearly that overall inflation has accelerated after several months of stability, proof that the ECB’s accommodating policy is being efficient. The analysis of Thomas Page-Lecuyer, Senior investment specialist at CPR (...)
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June 2018
Opinion Political uncertainty weighs on Italy
Italy’s struggle to form a government and the threat of a new election have caused bond spreads to widen, signaling market concerns. Despite Italian bonds recovering, volatility is running high and investors need to ask whether there will be a contagion impact across Europe (...)
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May 2018
Opinion Anatomy of a dollar rally
In the era of Central Bank policy influence, we have become used to large shifts in the performance and trends of different currencies across time. For the better part of the past two years, the currency headlines have been dominated by a weakening US (...)
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May 2018
Opinion Italian populist parties close to a deal
Last week, equity markets kept moving higher, while the US yield curve continued to flatten. The 2-10 and 10-30 differentials reached the lowest level since August 2007. President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran’s nuclear deal pushed oil prices at the highest level (...)
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