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Mory Doré’s column

Highlights

September 2012

Note The true nature of the derivative contract on French debt

The multiplication of misinterpretations related to the launch of the derivative contract on French debt leads to an apolitical analysis produced by a market professional to avoid amalgam and populism: This is a simple and useful contract, which was traded in the past in (...)

Opinion

Financial correlations and loss of common sense

Note

Financial markets: Local shock but global crisis

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March 2012

Opinion Robots have taken power in finance

Describe the real world with numbers is a trend that seems to be accelerating. Thus, digital technology is associated with financial models to show that we (human) interact with our environment using mathematical (...)

March 2012

Opinion The Euro will survive, but not the current Euro zone !

If the existence of the euro is not challenged, it is the case of the euro zone in its current configuration. In the same way that cohabitation between countries with maintaining parity exchange had become impossible in the EMS, cohabitation has become impossible within (...)

February 2012

Note Strategic tasks of central banks: focus on the ECB

Beyond the traditional measures and in a context of systemic risk, we wonder about what specifically should be the strategic tasks of a central bank

December 2011

Note Usefulness and competence of rating agencies

This is not electoral populism to only criticize rating agencies, rather than question their economic utility and try to ask questions about their actual skills, in other words their ability to analyze the creditworthiness of issuers they (...)

December 2011

Strategy The Euro’s Survival and traditional asset classes prospects for 2012

On the basis of the survival «in fine» of the Euro through a constrained and massive indirect monetization from the ECB, what are the expectations for 2012 on foreign exchange, short-term rates, long-term rates and (...)

December 2011

Opinion The Euro will survive In fine !

We do not believe or at least most of the implosion scenarios of the euro zone regardless of the terms. -Not because we would be trying to find one or several sustainable solutions to the crisis of sovereign debt, but because such a process would cost too much to everybody (...)

November 2011

Note Financial crisis indicators and safe haven assets

How to measure the intensity of the current financial and economic crisis? Regular monitoring of a number of economic and financial indicators helps answering this question and better understanding the materialization of panic behavior and portfolio reallocations in the (...)

November 2011

Opinion Central Banks : the global financial system trashcans ?

Institutionalized monetization condemns central banks to become the international financial system trashcans and, despite German opposition, it is likely to be the same for the ECB.

November 2011

Financial crisis Back on the true origins of the crisis

More than 4 years after the official start, now where everyone wonders how we will emerge from this ongoing crisis, let’s come back for a moment on the true origins.

October 2011

Stories The Greek crisis : the Danaides’ barrel ?

Back on the Greek saga or the largest bankruptcy in the 21st century without credit event trigger (to date). The succession of bailout plans shows that we do not simply resolve the insolvency of a country by emergency (...)

October 2011

Opinion Again and again the bank stress tests

Certainly it never ceases to write about the bank stress tests since it keeps getting more into banks; if proof were needed of the total lack of credibility of those made up to now

October 2011

Strategy Bond market: Investment opportunities on yield curves

Anticipations on future monetary policy and risk aversion linked to systemic threats create investment opportunities on the yield curves of US and Euro bonds. However, those opportunities cannot be seized before two fundamental questions have been (...)

September 2011

Strategy Forex, a value added in an allocation between real and financial assets

The foreign exchange market (Forex) is not an extra asset class but all asset classes together in the same market. It can be a real source of diversification and performance subject to a systematic, disciplined and rigorous (...)

September 2011

Opinion Perspective and real solvency of banks

Can a universal bank go bankrupt ? An objective, rigorous and professional answer is built in three stages: credibility of the banks performed stress tests - assessment of prudential regulation to come - understanding the evolution of the banking business (...)

August 2011

Mory Doré’s column Politics and financial markets: misunderstandings that are not new

Small point into the complex and tumultuous relations, misunderstood, between financial markets and politics. In these troubled times where the markets are supposedly expecting clear answers from politics and where at the same time, the same markets are accused of (...)

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Opinion Long-term rates rise....but it is not yet a bond crash

The recent sharp rise in long-term rates in Europe relies on a risk pooling across peripheral countries and the entire euro zone. But we cannot yet talk about bond crash.

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Financial crisis Eurozone: 3 future scenarios

This is the first part of a series consisting of 3 articles covering the perspectives of the Eurozone… In order to get out of the crisis, three scenarios are conceivable. The most probable of them is unfortunately the one where one or several countries exit the economic and (...)

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Strategy Financial markets: hedging against new structural risks and stagflation

There are at least four new structural risks to consider: regulation, Middle East, euro zone’s crisis, and again the idea of a change in growth model of emerging countries.

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Note 10 proposals to rebuild finance and monetary macroeconomics

Rethink monetary policy and its objectives, reform our accounting and prudential environment, review the return on equity standards, regulate the prices of certain assets...

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Opinion Perspective and real solvency of banks

Can a universal bank go bankrupt ? An objective, rigorous and professional answer is built in three stages: credibility of the banks performed stress tests - assessment of prudential regulation to come - understanding the evolution of the banking business (...)

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Opinion Bond bubble today and tomorrow ... Bond crash the day after tomorrow

Long-term rates that can not rise on short term, despite the abysmal public deficits ...

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Strategy Bond market: Investment opportunities on yield curves

Anticipations on future monetary policy and risk aversion linked to systemic threats create investment opportunities on the yield curves of US and Euro bonds. However, those opportunities cannot be seized before two fundamental questions have been (...)

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Note Usefulness and competence of rating agencies

This is not electoral populism to only criticize rating agencies, rather than question their economic utility and try to ask questions about their actual skills, in other words their ability to analyze the creditworthiness of issuers they (...)

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Stories The Greek crisis : the Danaides’ barrel ?

Back on the Greek saga or the largest bankruptcy in the 21st century without credit event trigger (to date). The succession of bailout plans shows that we do not simply resolve the insolvency of a country by emergency (...)

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Opinion Mathematical models in finance and embedded risk underestimation

The statistical assumption of normal (log-normal) distribution of stock returns (prices) is not that strong and tail events’ occurrence is largely undervalued. Nevertheless, this modeling framework has been widely used for strong (...)

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Strategy Investing during market turmoil

The idea that considers equity investing as long term has simply become absurd nowadays and has been so during the last 10 years. Let us be reassured. Opportunities will still be around. The only real question nowadays is how to allocate between real assets and financial (...)

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Note Strategic tasks of central banks: focus on the ECB

Beyond the traditional measures and in a context of systemic risk, we wonder about what specifically should be the strategic tasks of a central bank

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Note Financial crisis indicators and safe haven assets

How to measure the intensity of the current financial and economic crisis? Regular monitoring of a number of economic and financial indicators helps answering this question and better understanding the materialization of panic behavior and portfolio reallocations in the (...)

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Note The frantic flight to liquidity and solvency

Some markets have been exhibiting dysfunctions for nearly 4 years. The flight to liquidity and compliance with solvency requirements of banks and states with financial issues, have been - and still is - only ensured by non-conventional financing provisions and emergency (...)

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Opinion Complex and useless finance is still there

While complex finance should be preferred to improve risk modeling, it continues, in times of market stress, to help designing unmanageable and useless complex structured products

Focus

Mory Doré’s column About the author

Financial market professional active on various fields for more than 20 years, Mory Doré is a key advisor of his company on portfolio and risk management for various financial institutions. In addition, he is also a trainer, teacher and (...)

Focus

Monetary policy

Analysis and comments on central banks monetary policies and marcoeconomic situation

Asset allocation

role of fundamentals, investor behavior, regulatory and prudential changes

Financial crisis

Understanding the source of financial crisis and the mechanisms behind

Bank Financial Management

Constraints and objectives of financial management of banking institution

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