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Henderson Global Investors - "The investor shock today will be hard to digest"

vendredi 24 juin 2016

Matthew Beesley, Head of Equity, Henderson : "With the BBC calling the result at 0439 for Leave, markets are, not unsurprisingly, reeling. With currency and stock markets rallying so aggressively over the last week, with ’cable’ (USD-GBP) having touched 1.50 as the polls closed, the investor shock today will be hard to digest. We estimate markets were pricing in around only a 20% chance of Leave.

At the time of writing, Asian markets have not responded as negatively as we might have expected. The -8% fall that is currently reflected in FTSE futures could be just the start of an elongated period of weakness for the UK and indeed European stock markets. While Sterling and the Euro have led overnight in constantly trading markets, stock bourses will follow at 8am.

There will be debate and uncertainty over what exactly will happen next : how quickly will the UK evoke Article 50 ? What does the UK economy look like outside of the EU ? Will the United Kingdom stay United or will this trigger a break-up of the United Kingdom as we know it, with another Independence Vote for Scotland given the country’s over-whelming vote to Remain ? Could this give rise again to structural questions around the future of the European Union given the succour the outcome will give to other disgruntled factions across the continent.

For the UK, this is a seismic result. Its implications will undoubtedly be felt beyond UK borders, with immediate and perhaps long-lasting impacts on global trade and certainly on all asset markets."

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