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February 15

Opinion Added Value in ABS

Investors are moving back into higher-rated fixed income after years of comparative neglect, and we noted that asset- and mortgage-backed securities (ABS and MBS) offered diversified risk exposures, together with relative value caused mainly by technical supply-and-demand (...)

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Reflections on Davos: Business as usual no longer exists

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Equities head for choppy ride as higher yield market takes hold

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February 2022

Opinion 5 Minutes to know your way around #3 - Débrief of the FOMC, January 2022

The FOMC of January 26, 2022 was eagerly awaited. The minutes of the previous committee, had shown that a balance sheet reduction was seriously considered, which had triggered a major correction in the equity markets. Analysis by CPR AM (...)

February 2022

Opinion Chinese New Year - Year of the tiger: a focus on prosperity and productivity

As we move through 2022 we can expect an interesting year for China’s equity market given the pledge by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) to use monetary tools to spur the economy and boost growth. The US and China are set to spend the year diverging on monetary (...)

January 2022

Opinion Chinese new year: Three reasons why china could roar in the year of the tiger

As the rest world grapples with tighter monetary policy, China is on different easing trajectory, which should be supportive for stocks. It is likely that we are at, or past the peak of regulatory reform. Current valuations provide exciting entry points and (...)

January 2022

Opinion US equities: three themes to watch in a discriminating year

2022 will be a new year in more ways than one. After more than a decade of monetary stimulus, the US Federal Reserve has signaled that it will raise interest rates and reduce support for the economy and asset prices.

January 2022

Opinion Monetary policy and the yield curve

Edward Al-Hussainy, Senior Interest Rate and Currency Analyst at Columbia Threadneedle Investments on monetary policy in 2022 and its implications for rates and the yield curve.

January 2022

Opinion European equities: Stock selection guided by razor-sharp research will be the holy grail

2021 was a year of booming markets which were in danger of overheating before the Omicron Covid-19 variant came along. A profit boom on both sides of the Atlantic has supported equity markets, with the US looking exceptionally strong in the fourth (...)

November 2021

Opinion Are L/S Equity managers concerned by the covid resurgence?

Managers in the U.S. and Europe are continuing to reduce both their net and gross exposures, now converging near their long-term lows. They are selectively selling or shorting stocks that are the most exposed to tighter restrictions, preferring value stocks instead (to (...)

November 2021

Opinion UBS Year Ahead 2022: A year of discovery

UBS, the world’s leading global wealth manager, is expecting a year of discovery that will reveal what a new “normal” looks like, after two years marked by lockdown and reopening. 2022 is expected to be ‘a year of two halves’, with high rates of economic growth and inflation in (...)

November 2021

Opinion Net zero emissions: Pie in the sky or piece of cake?

COP26 is spearheading the race to net zero emissions. Though this goal is clearly laudable, sceptics wonder whether it is even achievable. Costs estimates put the price for the transition at USD 150 trillion over 30 years (i.e. two times the current global (...)

November 2021

Opinion Bond Pain trade for global macro

Gyrations in U.S. rates were highly challenging to navigate. Bond volatility surged in October as the Fed prepared to withdraw monetary accommodation and as investors struggled to assess the medium-term path of (...)

November 2021

Opinion Eurozone growth beats expectations, as inflation hits a 13-year high

The ECB sees inflation pressures as temporary and is unlikely to raise interest rates. The eurozone economy has outperformed consensus estimates as it grew by 2.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, matching the previous quarter. This leaves the level of economic activity just 0.5% (...)

October 2021

Opinion Understanding the anatomy of a financial Bubble

Infamous for the belief that there is a bubble in long-duration assets, Richard Bernstein Advisors reckon there are sizeable bubbles inflating. A recent report investigates what’s causing such widespread bubbles, their potential effects on the overall economy, and the (...)

September 2021

Opinion Federal Reserve moves towards November Taper

The Federal Reserve is very likely heading for a tapering of its bond purchases in November, but the longer-term outlook depends on how transitory the current bout of inflation is. If we are correct, i.e. it will fade more quickly than expected, then we should see the (...)

September 2021

Opinion We are maintaining a short exposure to US bonds

CPR AM managers continue to think that the US bond market should correct on the triple effect of the slowdown in future asset purchases, more lasting inflationary pressures than initially expected and the resumption of treasury bill issuance to finance the stimulus plans (...)

September 2021

Opinion Increase in inequalities and accommodative monetary policies : what causes what ?

While the idea that accommodative monetary policies imply an increase in inequalities, a research paper presented at the Jackson Hole central bankers conference reverses the causality and tends to suggest that it is the rise in inequalities that causes the decline in (...)

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Opinion Despite fears about the Bitcoin ’bubble’ bursting, the price of the new digital coins is going through the roof

According to Daniele Bianchi, of Warwick Business School, is Assistant Professor of Finance and he researches crypto-currencies incluing Bitcoin, despite fears about the Bitcoin ’bubble’ bursting, the price of the new digital coins is going through the (...)

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Opinion Robots have taken power in finance

Describe the real world with numbers is a trend that seems to be accelerating. Thus, digital technology is associated with financial models to show that we (human) interact with our environment using mathematical (...)

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Opinion Perspective and real solvency of banks

Can a universal bank go bankrupt ? An objective, rigorous and professional answer is built in three stages: credibility of the banks performed stress tests - assessment of prudential regulation to come - understanding the evolution of the banking business (...)

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Opinion Fair trade, angel or demon ?

As citizens movements connect politically and economically, fair trade talks about itself. A fair and equitable trade, what is more decent in appearance ? But in order to determine the fair part of trade, we need beforehand to determine what we mean by this (...)

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Opinion Investors pay a high price for emotional decisions

New European research from behavioural finance experts Oxford Risk reveals that over 73% of wealth managers believe emotional decision-making costs investors investment returns.

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Opinion When is it time for the SNB to think about the exit?

According to Goldman Sachs, the SNB’s exchange rate ceiling against the Euro is often seen as a binding constraint on its future interest rate decisions. But the exchange rate commitment is only likely to become a constraint on rate decisions if the CHF remains close to the (...)

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Opinion European equities: Back to basics

Following the French election, European equity markets are breathing a sigh of relief. While some structural challenges remain, strong fundamentals point towards continued European equity outperformance, triggered by reduced political tail (...)

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Opinion During times of uncertainty on the markets, SRI sheds some light on good quality companies.

We often hear that during times of uncertainty on the financial markets, investment decisions are much more driven by market psychology and by macroeconomics than fundamental analysis on listed companies. It is only partly (...)

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Opinion Climate change is an investment play for today

According to Luisa Florez, analyst at AXA IM, It is often said that climate and carbon themes are not financially material risk factors in the short to medium term. As an illustration, to date there have not been any signals from carbon markets to suggest that climate (...)

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Opinion Total Return Futures set for further growth as buy-side adoption increases

Eurex launched Total Return Futures (TRFs) in 2016 in response to growing demand for listed alternatives to total return swaps. Since then, the product has evolved into an instrument used by a wide variety of firms for multiple purposes, enabling firms to lock in financing (...)

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Opinion China goes for ’gently does it’

Chinese economic reforms continue, but the authorities are going about it carefully. After all, they don’t want to risk missing their growth targets. Oil-price declines and the US growth recovery are providing some welcome wind in China’s (...)

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Opinion Brexit update – the end of the beginning

Multiple sources suggest that UK and EU negotiators have reached a draft agreement on Britain’s terms for leaving the EU (the withdrawal agreement) including backstop mechanisms designed to ensure that Brexit does not create a hard border in Northern (...)

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Opinion Smart Betas offer a new approach to bridge market bias

When Alan Greenspan spoke of "market exuberance" (i.e. the lightning-fast mood swings from optimism to an investment bubble popping) wasn’t he referring to what we could call a "Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde" syndrome?

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Opinion Overview of Quantitative Finance in France

A short review of quantitative finance in France under the lens of the Next Finance website: Profile of quants, origins and outlook of the industry.

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Opinion Anatomy of the European Banks Rout – AT1 bonds

European bank stocks have collapsed so far this year whilst their credit default swaps have risen rapidly. Surely the credit and equity markets are telling us something? – Europe’s nascent economic recovery is over? Negative rates are killing net interest margins? They don’t (...)

Focus

Opinion Psychology and smart beta

‘Smart beta’ sounds like an oxymoron. How smart can it be to continue using the same strategy in such fickle markets? A portfolio manager calling on all his skills (‘alpha’) in analysing market environments (the source of ‘beta’) should be able to outperform an unchanged (...)

Focus

Mory Doré’s column

Mory Doré’s views on monetary policy, asset allocation, financial management of banks and understanding of crises

Éclairages Économiques Notebook

The association Éclairages Économiques share with us analysis mostly relying on current research on various economics issues

Selection: Prospects

Regulation Regulatory prospects: 2012 and beyond

2009 was a year of intense reflection on the functioning of the financial sector. There followed an intense regulatory activity in 2010, unfortunately with few formal adoptions of regulations. 2011 marked the surge of the will to succeed with provisional schedules. Where do (...)

Reading An Economic Approach to Marriage

Marriages are not always very stable. A divorce rate of 50 % in developed countries serves to prove. We ask ourselves if it is possible to form stable relationships. An economic analysis may be able to answer this (...)

Note Aging population poses new opportunities for global investment managers

Early conclusions from ongoing SimCorp StrategyLab research point to demographic changes as a key factor influencing the future of the global investment management industry.

Note Launch of green bonds

The term «Green Bonds» is more frequently used to describe a market that should mature very fast in order to deal with numerous requests for investments in the field of green infrastructure projects.

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