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February 2024

Opinion Added Value in ABS

Investors are moving back into higher-rated fixed income after years of comparative neglect, and we noted that asset- and mortgage-backed securities (ABS and MBS) offered diversified risk exposures, together with relative value caused mainly by technical supply-and-demand (...)

Opinion

Reflections on Davos: Business as usual no longer exists

Opinion

Equities head for choppy ride as higher yield market takes hold

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October 2012

Opinion The conditions are there for gold to return to USD 2000/oz over the next six months

The expectation of new central bank action was favorable for gold, causing a renewed surge in its price. Securities purchases by the European and US monetary authorities should help to propel gold towards new records.

September 2012

Opinion Are french OAT overvalued ?

According to John Gilbert, CIO of the Berkshire Hathaway’s subsidiary General Re-New England AM, French 10-year bonds should yield between 4.5% and 5%, closer to Italian and Spanish bonds rather than German ones. However, This opinion is not shared by the majority of the (...)

August 2012

Opinion Beware the dangerous emerging market ‘grand narrative’

The emerging markets (EM) ‘grand narrative’ that you hear constantly churned out is at best misleading and at worst dangerous...

July 2012

Opinion Facebunds : "German bund market is overvalued"

If regulators think the Facebook IPO was a scandal, they should look at the German government bond market...

May 2012

Opinion Financial correlations and loss of common sense

Isn’t correlation in finance charlatanry? We analyze this question through 4 situations that have been observed on financial markets with final investors, asset managers and proprietary traders.

April 2012

Opinion Risk free assets ?

But what is safe? Is it the AAA or AA rating provided by rating agencies such as S&P and Moody’s? Does “safe” equal goodwill bonds issued by sovereign countries such as France, Japan, the United Kingdom or the United States? (...)

March 2012

Opinion Robots have taken power in finance

Describe the real world with numbers is a trend that seems to be accelerating. Thus, digital technology is associated with financial models to show that we (human) interact with our environment using mathematical (...)

March 2012

Opinion LTRO – game changer or not?

The ECB announced its second long-term refinancing operation (LTRO) on Wednesday. The auction led to 800 banks tapping the ECB for EUR 530bn in three year funding at 1%.

March 2012

Opinion The Euro will survive, but not the current Euro zone !

If the existence of the euro is not challenged, it is the case of the euro zone in its current configuration. In the same way that cohabitation between countries with maintaining parity exchange had become impossible in the EMS, cohabitation has become impossible within (...)

March 2012

Opinion ING IM predicts a strong year for High Yield

The current attractive yield of 7 to 8% in combination with solid company credit fundamentals continues to attract new investors into the asset class.

February 2012

Opinion A New Hope

There is little doubt that dark clouds are still drifting on the horizon of the global economy. The Euro crisis still has the potential to erupt into an existential threat for the Eurozone’s economic system with a very destabilizing fall-out for the financial system in the (...)

January 2012

Opinion Putting a number on the Dragon

According to statistics from the Quantitative Guru of JP Morgan AM, the year of the Dragon will tend to be a year of prosperity for US equities with an average performance of 8,3% for the 11 years of the Dragon during this period of 140 years with an annual volatility of (...)

December 2011

Opinion The Euro will survive In fine !

We do not believe or at least most of the implosion scenarios of the euro zone regardless of the terms. -Not because we would be trying to find one or several sustainable solutions to the crisis of sovereign debt, but because such a process would cost too much to everybody (...)

December 2011

Opinion 2012: A year in global bonds

According to Bob Jolly, Schroders’ Head of Global Macro, considerable bad news is already in prices and corporate bonds issued by strong companies with cash on their balance sheet and pricing power remain attractive

December 2011

Opinion Russia is not Egypt (yet)

After Egypt, Russia is the second country where capital flight has been significant this year. Now Russia has a tradition of strong capital flight. Ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union, there have been only a few quarters without a net capital (...)

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Opinion 2017 outlook: China equities

Charlie Awdry, China portfolio manager, shares his views on the prospects for Chinese stocks in 2017. He believes the focus on high quality growth companies exposed to long-term consumer trends and cyclical value stocks places his portfolios in good stead to deliver (...)

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Opinion SNL Financial: Will Equities Still Boom and FICC suffer in 2016?

SNL Financial data shows how equities and M&A success have helped investment banks offset pain in fixed income, currencies and commodities (FICC) through the first nine months of 2015, a trend they may well need to continue in (...)

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Opinion Trump on the Brink – Geopolitical & Market Implications

Donald Trump’s ability to resonate with the populist mood has proven successful– populism in the developed world is on a worrying rise. We have collated what we believe are the most important investment implications of Donald Trump winning the US (...)

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Opinion It is better to be vaguely right than exactly wrong

According to Paul Jackson, Paul Jackson, Managing Director and Head of Multi-Asset Research at Source IM, it is better to be vaguely right than exactly wrong. He underweights bonds - but not high yield, and overweights equities and real (...)

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Opinion Trump victory: a non-event for markets?

The Fed should maintain its data-dependent normalization course with a rate hike likely mid-December 2016. Fed fund futures signal the market has not changed its mind on the Fed staying dovish in 2017. Janet Yellen’s four-year mandate as chair of the Board of Governors will (...)

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Opinion Asia’s new middle class gets mobile

“China’s huge, new and affluent middle class have broadened their horizons. Getting access to the best healthcare, education and tourist destinations is at the top of their priority list and they are keener than ever to travel overseas to find them.” Jason Pidcock, manager of (...)

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Opinion Disruption: Facing the future head-on

A shrewd investor always looks to the future. Our role, and indeed our duty, is to support companies that can come up with concrete solutions to the main challenges facing society today. If we are to rise to such formidable challenges, we at CPR AM firmly believe there is (...)

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Opinion Japanese stocks look oversold

According to Shogo Maeda, Head of Japan Equities, despite the recent volatility, Japanese companies’ prospects continue to look bright.

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Opinion Emissions crisis underscores shift to low carbon future

Nick Anderson, Portfolio Manager within Henderson’s global equity sustainable investment team, discusses the latest developments in the diesel emissions crisis. He explains why the crisis could be symptomatic of the world adjusting to a lower carbon (...)

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Opinion Piketty and Plutonomy: The revenge of inequality

When wealth and income are as concentrated as they are, and expected (a la Piketty) to get even more so, examining the “average” consumer or “average” investor makes little sense. Examining the fat tail – the behavior of the plutonomists, rather than that of the multitudinous (...)

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Opinion Who’s to blame for volatility?

Who’s to blame for the volatility seen in 2016? The temptation is to look for scapegoats, or blame it on structural problems, but is this correct? Multiple factors blamed for market swings seen in first four months, Volatility scapegoats include central banks and risk trading (...)

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Opinion Central Banks: Clear Tasks Instead of Outdated Formulas

The financial and economic crisis has shown that central banks need leeway for ad hoc interventions in the monetary and credit cycle. A clear separation between financial and monetary policy would be a first step towards long-term (...)

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Opinion Institutional investors expect to see more emerging market equities paying high dividends over the next few years

New research from ING Investment Management (ING IM) amongst institutional investors reveals that between now and 2016, 61% believe the number of emerging market stocks paying these will increase – 14% anticipate a “dramatic” rise here. The corresponding figures for the next (...)

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Opinion Hedge funds outperformed but the devil is in the details

The return of market volatility in February hurt equity markets significantly. For the first time in 15 months, the MSCI World ended the month in the red, down -3.5%, as EMU and Japanese markets underperformed.

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Opinion ? Why MSCI ESG downgraded Nissan to ‘CCC’ for governance failures in September ‘18

MSCI ESG Research downgraded Nissan from ’B’ to ’CCC’ on September 10, 2018, the lowest industry-relative rating on the scale of ’CCC’ to ’AAA’. The downgrade was primarily attributed to systemic failures in governing its corporate (...)

Focus

Opinion Psychology and smart beta

‘Smart beta’ sounds like an oxymoron. How smart can it be to continue using the same strategy in such fickle markets? A portfolio manager calling on all his skills (‘alpha’) in analysing market environments (the source of ‘beta’) should be able to outperform an unchanged (...)

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Mory Doré’s column

Mory Doré’s views on monetary policy, asset allocation, financial management of banks and understanding of crises

Éclairages Économiques Notebook

The association Éclairages Économiques share with us analysis mostly relying on current research on various economics issues

Selection: Prospects

Regulation Regulatory prospects: 2012 and beyond

2009 was a year of intense reflection on the functioning of the financial sector. There followed an intense regulatory activity in 2010, unfortunately with few formal adoptions of regulations. 2011 marked the surge of the will to succeed with provisional schedules. Where do (...)

Reading An Economic Approach to Marriage

Marriages are not always very stable. A divorce rate of 50 % in developed countries serves to prove. We ask ourselves if it is possible to form stable relationships. An economic analysis may be able to answer this (...)

Note Aging population poses new opportunities for global investment managers

Early conclusions from ongoing SimCorp StrategyLab research point to demographic changes as a key factor influencing the future of the global investment management industry.

Note Launch of green bonds

The term «Green Bonds» is more frequently used to describe a market that should mature very fast in order to deal with numerous requests for investments in the field of green infrastructure projects.

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