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February 2024

Opinion Added Value in ABS

Investors are moving back into higher-rated fixed income after years of comparative neglect, and we noted that asset- and mortgage-backed securities (ABS and MBS) offered diversified risk exposures, together with relative value caused mainly by technical supply-and-demand (...)

Opinion

Reflections on Davos: Business as usual no longer exists

Opinion

Equities head for choppy ride as higher yield market takes hold

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September 2018

Opinion Getting to the Truth on Trade, and Yes, Ricardo Can Still Rest In Peace

Trade volumes, trade agreements, and tariffs have been the focus of capital markets over the last year. Capital markets have taken the existing unencumbered trade regime as a given, and priced in the continuation of the existing order of ever-expanding trade and lower (...)

September 2018

Opinion Greece: the end of bailout program

The end of the Greek bailout program on Aug 20 bears both virtues and risks. While the country is regaining some fiscal room of manoeuvre, there is no longer any additional precautionary funding scheme in place, which means Greece is now reliant on financial market funding (...)

August 2018

Opinion After the fall

Emerging market bonds have suffered in recent months, but according to Alain-Nsiona Defise, Head of Emerging Corporates, Mary-Therese Barton, Head of Emerging Market Debt at Pictet Asset Management, fears of a renewed currency and debt crunch are (...)

July 2018

Opinion What alikely NXP-Qcomdeal break means for merger arbitrage

Market conditions have been supportive since early July, but the flattening of the Treasury curve raises questions about the probability of a U.S. recession next year. Fund manager surveys suggest investors have erred on the side of caution (...)

July 2018

Opinion US fixed income: Buying opportunity or a falling knife?

10 year US Treasury yields crossed the psychologically important 3% threshold in the 2nd quarter, the highest level in four years - buying opportunity or a falling knife? Given these critical levels and an uptick in US inflation, investors are justifiably worried about (...)

June 2018

Opinion ECB: Bold is beautiful

President Mario Draghi took a bold stance at the ECB press conference on Thursday. Not only did Draghi announce the timeframe for ending the asset purchase programme in 2018 but he also provided forward guidance on the unlikelihood of an interest rate hike until the summer (...)

June 2018

Opinion Polarisation in the luxury space

GAM’s Scilla Huang Sun evaluates some interesting trends in the luxury market and explains why this is a sector in which active management can add considerable value

June 2018

Opinion Fed and ECB to stick to exit plans

Following a sharp spike in risk premia in late May on uncertainties about new elections in Italy, markets mildly recovered from their state of emergency.

June 2018

Opinion Reform is the secret of India’s growth

Since assuming office in 2014, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has put in place a raft of reform measures aimed at strengthening the nation’s infrastructure and economic fundamentals.

June 2018

Opinion Investing in Japan? Look beyond the trade war rhetoric

The U.S. and China are edging ever closer to a full-blown trade war, but it won’t just be the two superpowers affected. With its equity markets highly correlated to global growth, many view Japan as a potential casualty of the ongoing (...)

June 2018

Opinion Macro Managers are scratching their heads just like you

Europe took center stage this week, with further developments in the Italian political saga reminding investors that there are still powerful Eurosceptic forces at play and forcing investors to end their hopes of meaningful eurozone reforms. However, fading prospects of (...)

June 2018

Opinion Back to inflation: The inflation theme enjoys a more favourable momentum in the euro zone

The first estimates of May’s figures show very clearly that overall inflation has accelerated after several months of stability, proof that the ECB’s accommodating policy is being efficient. The analysis of Thomas Page-Lecuyer, Senior investment specialist at CPR (...)

June 2018

Opinion Political uncertainty weighs on Italy

Italy’s struggle to form a government and the threat of a new election have caused bond spreads to widen, signaling market concerns. Despite Italian bonds recovering, volatility is running high and investors need to ask whether there will be a contagion impact across Europe (...)

May 2018

Opinion Anatomy of a dollar rally

In the era of Central Bank policy influence, we have become used to large shifts in the performance and trends of different currencies across time. For the better part of the past two years, the currency headlines have been dominated by a weakening US (...)

May 2018

Opinion Italian populist parties close to a deal

Last week, equity markets kept moving higher, while the US yield curve continued to flatten. The 2-10 and 10-30 differentials reached the lowest level since August 2007. President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran’s nuclear deal pushed oil prices at the highest level (...)

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Opinion 2017 outlook: China equities

Charlie Awdry, China portfolio manager, shares his views on the prospects for Chinese stocks in 2017. He believes the focus on high quality growth companies exposed to long-term consumer trends and cyclical value stocks places his portfolios in good stead to deliver (...)

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Opinion SNL Financial: Will Equities Still Boom and FICC suffer in 2016?

SNL Financial data shows how equities and M&A success have helped investment banks offset pain in fixed income, currencies and commodities (FICC) through the first nine months of 2015, a trend they may well need to continue in (...)

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Opinion Trump on the Brink – Geopolitical & Market Implications

Donald Trump’s ability to resonate with the populist mood has proven successful– populism in the developed world is on a worrying rise. We have collated what we believe are the most important investment implications of Donald Trump winning the US (...)

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Opinion It is better to be vaguely right than exactly wrong

According to Paul Jackson, Paul Jackson, Managing Director and Head of Multi-Asset Research at Source IM, it is better to be vaguely right than exactly wrong. He underweights bonds - but not high yield, and overweights equities and real (...)

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Opinion Trump victory: a non-event for markets?

The Fed should maintain its data-dependent normalization course with a rate hike likely mid-December 2016. Fed fund futures signal the market has not changed its mind on the Fed staying dovish in 2017. Janet Yellen’s four-year mandate as chair of the Board of Governors will (...)

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Opinion Asia’s new middle class gets mobile

“China’s huge, new and affluent middle class have broadened their horizons. Getting access to the best healthcare, education and tourist destinations is at the top of their priority list and they are keener than ever to travel overseas to find them.” Jason Pidcock, manager of (...)

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Opinion Disruption: Facing the future head-on

A shrewd investor always looks to the future. Our role, and indeed our duty, is to support companies that can come up with concrete solutions to the main challenges facing society today. If we are to rise to such formidable challenges, we at CPR AM firmly believe there is (...)

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Opinion Japanese stocks look oversold

According to Shogo Maeda, Head of Japan Equities, despite the recent volatility, Japanese companies’ prospects continue to look bright.

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Opinion Emissions crisis underscores shift to low carbon future

Nick Anderson, Portfolio Manager within Henderson’s global equity sustainable investment team, discusses the latest developments in the diesel emissions crisis. He explains why the crisis could be symptomatic of the world adjusting to a lower carbon (...)

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Opinion Piketty and Plutonomy: The revenge of inequality

When wealth and income are as concentrated as they are, and expected (a la Piketty) to get even more so, examining the “average” consumer or “average” investor makes little sense. Examining the fat tail – the behavior of the plutonomists, rather than that of the multitudinous (...)

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Opinion Who’s to blame for volatility?

Who’s to blame for the volatility seen in 2016? The temptation is to look for scapegoats, or blame it on structural problems, but is this correct? Multiple factors blamed for market swings seen in first four months, Volatility scapegoats include central banks and risk trading (...)

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Opinion Central Banks: Clear Tasks Instead of Outdated Formulas

The financial and economic crisis has shown that central banks need leeway for ad hoc interventions in the monetary and credit cycle. A clear separation between financial and monetary policy would be a first step towards long-term (...)

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Opinion Institutional investors expect to see more emerging market equities paying high dividends over the next few years

New research from ING Investment Management (ING IM) amongst institutional investors reveals that between now and 2016, 61% believe the number of emerging market stocks paying these will increase – 14% anticipate a “dramatic” rise here. The corresponding figures for the next (...)

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Opinion Hedge funds outperformed but the devil is in the details

The return of market volatility in February hurt equity markets significantly. For the first time in 15 months, the MSCI World ended the month in the red, down -3.5%, as EMU and Japanese markets underperformed.

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Opinion ? Why MSCI ESG downgraded Nissan to ‘CCC’ for governance failures in September ‘18

MSCI ESG Research downgraded Nissan from ’B’ to ’CCC’ on September 10, 2018, the lowest industry-relative rating on the scale of ’CCC’ to ’AAA’. The downgrade was primarily attributed to systemic failures in governing its corporate (...)

Focus

Opinion Psychology and smart beta

‘Smart beta’ sounds like an oxymoron. How smart can it be to continue using the same strategy in such fickle markets? A portfolio manager calling on all his skills (‘alpha’) in analysing market environments (the source of ‘beta’) should be able to outperform an unchanged (...)

Focus

Mory Doré’s column

Mory Doré’s views on monetary policy, asset allocation, financial management of banks and understanding of crises

Éclairages Économiques Notebook

The association Éclairages Économiques share with us analysis mostly relying on current research on various economics issues

Selection: Prospects

Regulation Regulatory prospects: 2012 and beyond

2009 was a year of intense reflection on the functioning of the financial sector. There followed an intense regulatory activity in 2010, unfortunately with few formal adoptions of regulations. 2011 marked the surge of the will to succeed with provisional schedules. Where do (...)

Reading An Economic Approach to Marriage

Marriages are not always very stable. A divorce rate of 50 % in developed countries serves to prove. We ask ourselves if it is possible to form stable relationships. An economic analysis may be able to answer this (...)

Note Aging population poses new opportunities for global investment managers

Early conclusions from ongoing SimCorp StrategyLab research point to demographic changes as a key factor influencing the future of the global investment management industry.

Note Launch of green bonds

The term «Green Bonds» is more frequently used to describe a market that should mature very fast in order to deal with numerous requests for investments in the field of green infrastructure projects.

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