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February 2024

Opinion Added Value in ABS

Investors are moving back into higher-rated fixed income after years of comparative neglect, and we noted that asset- and mortgage-backed securities (ABS and MBS) offered diversified risk exposures, together with relative value caused mainly by technical supply-and-demand (...)

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Reflections on Davos: Business as usual no longer exists

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Equities head for choppy ride as higher yield market takes hold

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February 2022

Opinion 5 Minutes to know your way around #3 - Débrief of the FOMC, January 2022

The FOMC of January 26, 2022 was eagerly awaited. The minutes of the previous committee, had shown that a balance sheet reduction was seriously considered, which had triggered a major correction in the equity markets. Analysis by CPR AM (...)

February 2022

Opinion Chinese New Year - Year of the tiger: a focus on prosperity and productivity

As we move through 2022 we can expect an interesting year for China’s equity market given the pledge by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) to use monetary tools to spur the economy and boost growth. The US and China are set to spend the year diverging on monetary (...)

January 2022

Opinion Chinese new year: Three reasons why china could roar in the year of the tiger

As the rest world grapples with tighter monetary policy, China is on different easing trajectory, which should be supportive for stocks. It is likely that we are at, or past the peak of regulatory reform. Current valuations provide exciting entry points and (...)

January 2022

Opinion US equities: three themes to watch in a discriminating year

2022 will be a new year in more ways than one. After more than a decade of monetary stimulus, the US Federal Reserve has signaled that it will raise interest rates and reduce support for the economy and asset prices.

January 2022

Opinion Monetary policy and the yield curve

Edward Al-Hussainy, Senior Interest Rate and Currency Analyst at Columbia Threadneedle Investments on monetary policy in 2022 and its implications for rates and the yield curve.

January 2022

Opinion European equities: Stock selection guided by razor-sharp research will be the holy grail

2021 was a year of booming markets which were in danger of overheating before the Omicron Covid-19 variant came along. A profit boom on both sides of the Atlantic has supported equity markets, with the US looking exceptionally strong in the fourth (...)

November 2021

Opinion Are L/S Equity managers concerned by the covid resurgence?

Managers in the U.S. and Europe are continuing to reduce both their net and gross exposures, now converging near their long-term lows. They are selectively selling or shorting stocks that are the most exposed to tighter restrictions, preferring value stocks instead (to (...)

November 2021

Opinion UBS Year Ahead 2022: A year of discovery

UBS, the world’s leading global wealth manager, is expecting a year of discovery that will reveal what a new “normal” looks like, after two years marked by lockdown and reopening. 2022 is expected to be ‘a year of two halves’, with high rates of economic growth and inflation in (...)

November 2021

Opinion Net zero emissions: Pie in the sky or piece of cake?

COP26 is spearheading the race to net zero emissions. Though this goal is clearly laudable, sceptics wonder whether it is even achievable. Costs estimates put the price for the transition at USD 150 trillion over 30 years (i.e. two times the current global (...)

November 2021

Opinion Bond Pain trade for global macro

Gyrations in U.S. rates were highly challenging to navigate. Bond volatility surged in October as the Fed prepared to withdraw monetary accommodation and as investors struggled to assess the medium-term path of (...)

November 2021

Opinion Eurozone growth beats expectations, as inflation hits a 13-year high

The ECB sees inflation pressures as temporary and is unlikely to raise interest rates. The eurozone economy has outperformed consensus estimates as it grew by 2.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, matching the previous quarter. This leaves the level of economic activity just 0.5% (...)

October 2021

Opinion Understanding the anatomy of a financial Bubble

Infamous for the belief that there is a bubble in long-duration assets, Richard Bernstein Advisors reckon there are sizeable bubbles inflating. A recent report investigates what’s causing such widespread bubbles, their potential effects on the overall economy, and the (...)

September 2021

Opinion Federal Reserve moves towards November Taper

The Federal Reserve is very likely heading for a tapering of its bond purchases in November, but the longer-term outlook depends on how transitory the current bout of inflation is. If we are correct, i.e. it will fade more quickly than expected, then we should see the (...)

September 2021

Opinion We are maintaining a short exposure to US bonds

CPR AM managers continue to think that the US bond market should correct on the triple effect of the slowdown in future asset purchases, more lasting inflationary pressures than initially expected and the resumption of treasury bill issuance to finance the stimulus plans (...)

September 2021

Opinion Increase in inequalities and accommodative monetary policies : what causes what ?

While the idea that accommodative monetary policies imply an increase in inequalities, a research paper presented at the Jackson Hole central bankers conference reverses the causality and tends to suggest that it is the rise in inequalities that causes the decline in (...)

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Opinion 2017 outlook: China equities

Charlie Awdry, China portfolio manager, shares his views on the prospects for Chinese stocks in 2017. He believes the focus on high quality growth companies exposed to long-term consumer trends and cyclical value stocks places his portfolios in good stead to deliver (...)

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Opinion SNL Financial: Will Equities Still Boom and FICC suffer in 2016?

SNL Financial data shows how equities and M&A success have helped investment banks offset pain in fixed income, currencies and commodities (FICC) through the first nine months of 2015, a trend they may well need to continue in (...)

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Opinion Trump on the Brink – Geopolitical & Market Implications

Donald Trump’s ability to resonate with the populist mood has proven successful– populism in the developed world is on a worrying rise. We have collated what we believe are the most important investment implications of Donald Trump winning the US (...)

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Opinion It is better to be vaguely right than exactly wrong

According to Paul Jackson, Paul Jackson, Managing Director and Head of Multi-Asset Research at Source IM, it is better to be vaguely right than exactly wrong. He underweights bonds - but not high yield, and overweights equities and real (...)

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Opinion Trump victory: a non-event for markets?

The Fed should maintain its data-dependent normalization course with a rate hike likely mid-December 2016. Fed fund futures signal the market has not changed its mind on the Fed staying dovish in 2017. Janet Yellen’s four-year mandate as chair of the Board of Governors will (...)

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Opinion Asia’s new middle class gets mobile

“China’s huge, new and affluent middle class have broadened their horizons. Getting access to the best healthcare, education and tourist destinations is at the top of their priority list and they are keener than ever to travel overseas to find them.” Jason Pidcock, manager of (...)

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Opinion Disruption: Facing the future head-on

A shrewd investor always looks to the future. Our role, and indeed our duty, is to support companies that can come up with concrete solutions to the main challenges facing society today. If we are to rise to such formidable challenges, we at CPR AM firmly believe there is (...)

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Opinion Japanese stocks look oversold

According to Shogo Maeda, Head of Japan Equities, despite the recent volatility, Japanese companies’ prospects continue to look bright.

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Opinion Emissions crisis underscores shift to low carbon future

Nick Anderson, Portfolio Manager within Henderson’s global equity sustainable investment team, discusses the latest developments in the diesel emissions crisis. He explains why the crisis could be symptomatic of the world adjusting to a lower carbon (...)

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Opinion Piketty and Plutonomy: The revenge of inequality

When wealth and income are as concentrated as they are, and expected (a la Piketty) to get even more so, examining the “average” consumer or “average” investor makes little sense. Examining the fat tail – the behavior of the plutonomists, rather than that of the multitudinous (...)

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Opinion Who’s to blame for volatility?

Who’s to blame for the volatility seen in 2016? The temptation is to look for scapegoats, or blame it on structural problems, but is this correct? Multiple factors blamed for market swings seen in first four months, Volatility scapegoats include central banks and risk trading (...)

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Opinion Central Banks: Clear Tasks Instead of Outdated Formulas

The financial and economic crisis has shown that central banks need leeway for ad hoc interventions in the monetary and credit cycle. A clear separation between financial and monetary policy would be a first step towards long-term (...)

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Opinion Institutional investors expect to see more emerging market equities paying high dividends over the next few years

New research from ING Investment Management (ING IM) amongst institutional investors reveals that between now and 2016, 61% believe the number of emerging market stocks paying these will increase – 14% anticipate a “dramatic” rise here. The corresponding figures for the next (...)

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Opinion Hedge funds outperformed but the devil is in the details

The return of market volatility in February hurt equity markets significantly. For the first time in 15 months, the MSCI World ended the month in the red, down -3.5%, as EMU and Japanese markets underperformed.

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Opinion ? Why MSCI ESG downgraded Nissan to ‘CCC’ for governance failures in September ‘18

MSCI ESG Research downgraded Nissan from ’B’ to ’CCC’ on September 10, 2018, the lowest industry-relative rating on the scale of ’CCC’ to ’AAA’. The downgrade was primarily attributed to systemic failures in governing its corporate (...)

Focus

Opinion Psychology and smart beta

‘Smart beta’ sounds like an oxymoron. How smart can it be to continue using the same strategy in such fickle markets? A portfolio manager calling on all his skills (‘alpha’) in analysing market environments (the source of ‘beta’) should be able to outperform an unchanged (...)

Focus

Mory Doré’s column

Mory Doré’s views on monetary policy, asset allocation, financial management of banks and understanding of crises

Éclairages Économiques Notebook

The association Éclairages Économiques share with us analysis mostly relying on current research on various economics issues

Selection: Prospects

Regulation Regulatory prospects: 2012 and beyond

2009 was a year of intense reflection on the functioning of the financial sector. There followed an intense regulatory activity in 2010, unfortunately with few formal adoptions of regulations. 2011 marked the surge of the will to succeed with provisional schedules. Where do (...)

Reading An Economic Approach to Marriage

Marriages are not always very stable. A divorce rate of 50 % in developed countries serves to prove. We ask ourselves if it is possible to form stable relationships. An economic analysis may be able to answer this (...)

Note Aging population poses new opportunities for global investment managers

Early conclusions from ongoing SimCorp StrategyLab research point to demographic changes as a key factor influencing the future of the global investment management industry.

Note Launch of green bonds

The term «Green Bonds» is more frequently used to describe a market that should mature very fast in order to deal with numerous requests for investments in the field of green infrastructure projects.

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