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February 2024

Opinion Added Value in ABS

Investors are moving back into higher-rated fixed income after years of comparative neglect, and we noted that asset- and mortgage-backed securities (ABS and MBS) offered diversified risk exposures, together with relative value caused mainly by technical supply-and-demand (...)

Opinion

Reflections on Davos: Business as usual no longer exists

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Equities head for choppy ride as higher yield market takes hold

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February 2022

Opinion 5 Minutes to know your way around #3 - Débrief of the FOMC, January 2022

The FOMC of January 26, 2022 was eagerly awaited. The minutes of the previous committee, had shown that a balance sheet reduction was seriously considered, which had triggered a major correction in the equity markets. Analysis by CPR AM (...)

February 2022

Opinion Chinese New Year - Year of the tiger: a focus on prosperity and productivity

As we move through 2022 we can expect an interesting year for China’s equity market given the pledge by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) to use monetary tools to spur the economy and boost growth. The US and China are set to spend the year diverging on monetary (...)

January 2022

Opinion Chinese new year: Three reasons why china could roar in the year of the tiger

As the rest world grapples with tighter monetary policy, China is on different easing trajectory, which should be supportive for stocks. It is likely that we are at, or past the peak of regulatory reform. Current valuations provide exciting entry points and (...)

January 2022

Opinion US equities: three themes to watch in a discriminating year

2022 will be a new year in more ways than one. After more than a decade of monetary stimulus, the US Federal Reserve has signaled that it will raise interest rates and reduce support for the economy and asset prices.

January 2022

Opinion Monetary policy and the yield curve

Edward Al-Hussainy, Senior Interest Rate and Currency Analyst at Columbia Threadneedle Investments on monetary policy in 2022 and its implications for rates and the yield curve.

January 2022

Opinion European equities: Stock selection guided by razor-sharp research will be the holy grail

2021 was a year of booming markets which were in danger of overheating before the Omicron Covid-19 variant came along. A profit boom on both sides of the Atlantic has supported equity markets, with the US looking exceptionally strong in the fourth (...)

November 2021

Opinion Are L/S Equity managers concerned by the covid resurgence?

Managers in the U.S. and Europe are continuing to reduce both their net and gross exposures, now converging near their long-term lows. They are selectively selling or shorting stocks that are the most exposed to tighter restrictions, preferring value stocks instead (to (...)

November 2021

Opinion UBS Year Ahead 2022: A year of discovery

UBS, the world’s leading global wealth manager, is expecting a year of discovery that will reveal what a new “normal” looks like, after two years marked by lockdown and reopening. 2022 is expected to be ‘a year of two halves’, with high rates of economic growth and inflation in (...)

November 2021

Opinion Net zero emissions: Pie in the sky or piece of cake?

COP26 is spearheading the race to net zero emissions. Though this goal is clearly laudable, sceptics wonder whether it is even achievable. Costs estimates put the price for the transition at USD 150 trillion over 30 years (i.e. two times the current global (...)

November 2021

Opinion Bond Pain trade for global macro

Gyrations in U.S. rates were highly challenging to navigate. Bond volatility surged in October as the Fed prepared to withdraw monetary accommodation and as investors struggled to assess the medium-term path of (...)

November 2021

Opinion Eurozone growth beats expectations, as inflation hits a 13-year high

The ECB sees inflation pressures as temporary and is unlikely to raise interest rates. The eurozone economy has outperformed consensus estimates as it grew by 2.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, matching the previous quarter. This leaves the level of economic activity just 0.5% (...)

October 2021

Opinion Understanding the anatomy of a financial Bubble

Infamous for the belief that there is a bubble in long-duration assets, Richard Bernstein Advisors reckon there are sizeable bubbles inflating. A recent report investigates what’s causing such widespread bubbles, their potential effects on the overall economy, and the (...)

September 2021

Opinion Federal Reserve moves towards November Taper

The Federal Reserve is very likely heading for a tapering of its bond purchases in November, but the longer-term outlook depends on how transitory the current bout of inflation is. If we are correct, i.e. it will fade more quickly than expected, then we should see the (...)

September 2021

Opinion We are maintaining a short exposure to US bonds

CPR AM managers continue to think that the US bond market should correct on the triple effect of the slowdown in future asset purchases, more lasting inflationary pressures than initially expected and the resumption of treasury bill issuance to finance the stimulus plans (...)

September 2021

Opinion Increase in inequalities and accommodative monetary policies : what causes what ?

While the idea that accommodative monetary policies imply an increase in inequalities, a research paper presented at the Jackson Hole central bankers conference reverses the causality and tends to suggest that it is the rise in inequalities that causes the decline in (...)

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Opinion Russia now - should investors be bold or sit on the sidelines?

People are drawing parallels with the Crimean annexation and sanctions put in place then - which heavily impacted the Russian market. But the macroeconomic Russian situation is very different today - it is much (...)

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Opinion Why we would start reweighting U.S. stock-pickers

We are past the peak of the U.S. earnings reports. In the past, any unusually high individual stock volatility after an earnings announcement was a pattern that only appeared at macro inflection points.

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Opinion Review of the chinese economy at the end of the summer of 2019

The monthly data published at the start of the second quarter are fairly mixed and show no tangible signs of growth momentum improving in China. The GDP published for the second quarter has recently confirmed this sentiment. The slowdown at work since the start of the decade (...)

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Opinion The year of the rat: China’s Economy is strong but investors need to be on their guard

As China enters the Year of the Rat this Saturday (25 January), Jasmine Kang, Portfolio Manager at Comgest, the independent, international asset management group focused on quality growth investing, believes that China’s growth has become more sustainable but that (...)

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Opinion Bond bubble today and tomorrow ... Bond crash the day after tomorrow

Long-term rates that can not rise on short term, despite the abysmal public deficits ...

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Opinion Which central banks will have the most room for maneuver?

In the decade following the Great Recession, central banks in developed countries have resorted overwhelmingly to unconventional measures to satisfy their mandates, be they dual (price stability and full employment) or solely focused on price (...)

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Opinion Will 2017 herald a commodity bull market?

According to David Donora, Head of Commodities, Columbia Threadneedle, after commodity prices bottomed in early 2016, demand is outstripping supply once again, suggesting the next bull market may be approaching...

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Opinion Have emerging markets lost their mojo?

Emerging markets have never really been a wallflower in the world of capital market news. Even with this said, however, the past three years have been fairly extreme in terms of the range of events that have played out in the asset class, and the persistent and overwhelming (...)

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Opinion Has the selloff left scars on stock pickers and trend-followers?

Hedge funds strongly recovered from the selloff, with only two exceptions: i) the fixed income funds, flat this week, still isolated from the epicenter, and ii) neutral equity funds, still suffering from sector and factor rotations. This week, we checked if the selloff (...)

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Opinion Europe’s overlooked technology sector is thriving

While Europe’s fragmentation has hindered development of a mass-market giant to rival those from the US and China, its distinctive technology businesses are competing successfully in global markets.

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Opinion Net zero emissions: Pie in the sky or piece of cake?

COP26 is spearheading the race to net zero emissions. Though this goal is clearly laudable, sceptics wonder whether it is even achievable. Costs estimates put the price for the transition at USD 150 trillion over 30 years (i.e. two times the current global (...)

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Opinion Overview of Quantitative Finance in France

A short review of quantitative finance in France under the lens of the Next Finance website: Profile of quants, origins and outlook of the industry.

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Opinion The second wave

As the coronavirus continues to impact the global economy, Charles Hepworth, Investment Director, GAM Investments, discusses the risks that a second wave of epidemics could pose in the future.

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Opinion The Euro will survive, but not the current Euro zone !

If the existence of the euro is not challenged, it is the case of the euro zone in its current configuration. In the same way that cohabitation between countries with maintaining parity exchange had become impossible in the EMS, cohabitation has become impossible within (...)

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Opinion A short lesson in exchange rate determination

François Hollande, the French President, recently called for action against the strong euro, stating that the economy could end up with an exchange rate “out of line with the fundamentals”. Although plausible, exchange rates are probably “out of line with the fundamentals” most (...)

Focus

Opinion Psychology and smart beta

‘Smart beta’ sounds like an oxymoron. How smart can it be to continue using the same strategy in such fickle markets? A portfolio manager calling on all his skills (‘alpha’) in analysing market environments (the source of ‘beta’) should be able to outperform an unchanged (...)

Focus

Mory Doré’s column

Mory Doré’s views on monetary policy, asset allocation, financial management of banks and understanding of crises

Éclairages Économiques Notebook

The association Éclairages Économiques share with us analysis mostly relying on current research on various economics issues

Selection: Prospects

Regulation Regulatory prospects: 2012 and beyond

2009 was a year of intense reflection on the functioning of the financial sector. There followed an intense regulatory activity in 2010, unfortunately with few formal adoptions of regulations. 2011 marked the surge of the will to succeed with provisional schedules. Where do (...)

Reading An Economic Approach to Marriage

Marriages are not always very stable. A divorce rate of 50 % in developed countries serves to prove. We ask ourselves if it is possible to form stable relationships. An economic analysis may be able to answer this (...)

Note Aging population poses new opportunities for global investment managers

Early conclusions from ongoing SimCorp StrategyLab research point to demographic changes as a key factor influencing the future of the global investment management industry.

Note Launch of green bonds

The term «Green Bonds» is more frequently used to describe a market that should mature very fast in order to deal with numerous requests for investments in the field of green infrastructure projects.

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