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February 15

Opinion Added Value in ABS

Investors are moving back into higher-rated fixed income after years of comparative neglect, and we noted that asset- and mortgage-backed securities (ABS and MBS) offered diversified risk exposures, together with relative value caused mainly by technical supply-and-demand (...)

Opinion

Reflections on Davos: Business as usual no longer exists

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Equities head for choppy ride as higher yield market takes hold

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March 2018

Opinion Steel Tariffs from Trump to tighten metal supply from China

The steel and aluminium tariffs instated by President Trump should tighten the supply of metal coming from China. As a serial overproducer, cutback from China will be welcome news and could even increase prices; China is already trying to reduce capacity in steel and (...)

March 2018

Opinion Hedge funds outperformed but the devil is in the details

The return of market volatility in February hurt equity markets significantly. For the first time in 15 months, the MSCI World ended the month in the red, down -3.5%, as EMU and Japanese markets underperformed.

March 2018

Opinion Europe’s Ugly Duckling Stocks Deserve More Love

Investors are looking at a very different Europe compared to one year ago. Even though Brexit talks are likely to drag on and Italy’s turbulent political environment is a potential wild card, political risk in Europe has eased (...)

March 2018

Opinion Valuation multiples for the S&P 500 remain near historic highs.

When it comes to valuing shares, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is a bit like the baloney sandwich of equity valuation. Wall Street’s finest might all know about more elegant, sophisticated and nutritious alternatives.

March 2018

Opinion Has the selloff left scars on stock pickers and trend-followers?

Hedge funds strongly recovered from the selloff, with only two exceptions: i) the fixed income funds, flat this week, still isolated from the epicenter, and ii) neutral equity funds, still suffering from sector and factor rotations. This week, we checked if the selloff (...)

February 2018

Opinion A united Korea: the investment perspective

As unlikely as it seems, and despite the recent isolationist rhetoric of North Korea’s Kim Jong-un, the 2018 Winter Olympics could witness the first steps towards the reunification of the Korean peninsula. Rivalled only by the coming together of East and West Germany in the (...)

February 2018

Opinion Germany, or even Europe, to be thrown into political turmoil ?

In the Netherlands, the moderates hold on to power. Then came the election of French President Emmanuel Macron and the decisive victory of his newly founded movement, La République en Marche, in the French general (...)

February 2018

Opinion Vietnam & Cambodia - Asian frontiers on the front foot

February 2018

Opinion The current volatility episode should be temporary

We have been expecting a pick-up in market volatility as part of our global outlook for 2018. The current volatility episode should, however, be temporary as market participants take note of the gradual normalisation of inflation and monetary (...)

February 2018

Opinion Spread products perform well despite higher yields

The overall friendly environment on financial markets prevailed last week. While euro area macroeconomic data were on balance mixed, US data were slightly better than expected.

February 2018

Opinion Tailwind for European Stock-Pickers

Markets took a breather after weeks of appreciation. European stocks underperformed, caught in between the repricing in govies yield and a rising Euro. Japanese and EM stocks were resilient.

February 2018

Opinion The fastest growing of these mega caps were Amazon and Facebook

Technology stocks have continued to outpace broader equity markets in 2018. Together Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook and Microsoft have a market cap value of $3.6 trillion and a net cash balance of just over $365bn. These quarterly earnings reports epitomise a virtuous (...)

January 2018

Opinion End of an Era?

Do investors realize how good they’ve had it over the last 8+ years ? On the obvious side, the length and strength of the equity bull market has been well publicized. Since the March ’09 bottom, US equities are up over 300% (S&P 500®) while global equities are up over 200% (...)

January 2018

Opinion The 10 biggest risks for 2018

The outlooks for 2018 are relatively optimistic, nonetheless, in the interest of a balanced view, Esty Dwek Roditi, Invesment Specialist at Natixis Investment Managers presents the 10 biggest risks for 2018.

January 2018

Opinion A love letter to economic history

And yet again, the global economy delivers another good quarter in terms of growth. It even seems that capital investments are finally contributing to growth. This has been the main disappointing economic variable to date in this business (...)

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Opinion Review of the chinese economy at the end of the summer of 2019

The monthly data published at the start of the second quarter are fairly mixed and show no tangible signs of growth momentum improving in China. The GDP published for the second quarter has recently confirmed this sentiment. The slowdown at work since the start of the decade (...)

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Opinion Hard time for sterling

According to Luc Luyet and Frederik Ducrozet, Asset Allocation & Macro Research, Pictet Wealth Management, the sharp drop of the sterling on Friday 7 October at the start of trading in Asia with the currency declining 6% in the course of twenty minutes was the climax of (...)

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Opinion Complex and useless finance is still there

While complex finance should be preferred to improve risk modeling, it continues, in times of market stress, to help designing unmanageable and useless complex structured products

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Opinion Slowing China growth to prompt further stimulus

According to Craig Botham, Economist, Emerging Markets at Schroders, China’s economy expanded 7.3% in the final quarter of last year, beating expectations and recording a 7.4% expansion for the year as a whole, but failing to meet the government’s 7.5% (...)

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Opinion Asia’s new middle class gets mobile

“China’s huge, new and affluent middle class have broadened their horizons. Getting access to the best healthcare, education and tourist destinations is at the top of their priority list and they are keener than ever to travel overseas to find them.” Jason Pidcock, manager of (...)

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Opinion Despite fears about the Bitcoin ’bubble’ bursting, the price of the new digital coins is going through the roof

According to Daniele Bianchi, of Warwick Business School, is Assistant Professor of Finance and he researches crypto-currencies incluing Bitcoin, despite fears about the Bitcoin ’bubble’ bursting, the price of the new digital coins is going through the (...)

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Opinion Capital Market Pulse

We expect risk assets to continue to grind higher, and maintain our exposure. It might not be time to add too much risk, but we don’t think it’s time to take it all off either.

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Opinion Brexit update – the end of the beginning

Multiple sources suggest that UK and EU negotiators have reached a draft agreement on Britain’s terms for leaving the EU (the withdrawal agreement) including backstop mechanisms designed to ensure that Brexit does not create a hard border in Northern (...)

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Opinion Laggards, electric vehicles and energy storage: The outlook for the climate transition in 2021

Jaime Ramos Martin, portfolio manager of Aviva Investors’ climate transition strategy, and Rick Stathers, Aviva Investors’ climate lead, look at three themes that will shape the outlook in 2021.

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Opinion Turkey – Here we Go Again

What does the appointment of the fourth central bank governor in less than two years mean for investors in Turkey? As have we have seen in the press, and to everyone’s surprise, last week the Turkish government replaced central bank chairman Naci Agbal, just four and a half (...)

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Opinion Are L/S Equity managers concerned by the covid resurgence?

Managers in the U.S. and Europe are continuing to reduce both their net and gross exposures, now converging near their long-term lows. They are selectively selling or shorting stocks that are the most exposed to tighter restrictions, preferring value stocks instead (to (...)

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Opinion Total Return Futures set for further growth as buy-side adoption increases

Eurex launched Total Return Futures (TRFs) in 2016 in response to growing demand for listed alternatives to total return swaps. Since then, the product has evolved into an instrument used by a wide variety of firms for multiple purposes, enabling firms to lock in financing (...)

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Opinion How Brexit will impact the UK economy?

According to Daniele Bianchi, of Warwick Business School, is an Assistant Professor of Finance and researches financial econometrics, asset pricing and commodity markets, on the whole, the negative impact of Brexit on exchanges rates, on the political landscape, and on (...)

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Opinion Easy money: Could the cure be more damaging than the illness itself?

Given the economic and political headwinds and shocks we have experienced in the first six months of 2016, the summer could easily have been characterised by uncertainty and volatility.

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Opinion How Could They?

According to William H. Gross, markets are reaching the point of low return and diminishing liquidity. Investors may want to begin to take some chips off the table: raise asset quality, reduce duration, and prepare for at least a halt of asset appreciation engineered upon a (...)

Focus

Opinion Psychology and smart beta

‘Smart beta’ sounds like an oxymoron. How smart can it be to continue using the same strategy in such fickle markets? A portfolio manager calling on all his skills (‘alpha’) in analysing market environments (the source of ‘beta’) should be able to outperform an unchanged (...)

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Mory Doré’s column

Mory Doré’s views on monetary policy, asset allocation, financial management of banks and understanding of crises

Éclairages Économiques Notebook

The association Éclairages Économiques share with us analysis mostly relying on current research on various economics issues

Selection: Prospects

Regulation Regulatory prospects: 2012 and beyond

2009 was a year of intense reflection on the functioning of the financial sector. There followed an intense regulatory activity in 2010, unfortunately with few formal adoptions of regulations. 2011 marked the surge of the will to succeed with provisional schedules. Where do (...)

Reading An Economic Approach to Marriage

Marriages are not always very stable. A divorce rate of 50 % in developed countries serves to prove. We ask ourselves if it is possible to form stable relationships. An economic analysis may be able to answer this (...)

Note Aging population poses new opportunities for global investment managers

Early conclusions from ongoing SimCorp StrategyLab research point to demographic changes as a key factor influencing the future of the global investment management industry.

Note Launch of green bonds

The term «Green Bonds» is more frequently used to describe a market that should mature very fast in order to deal with numerous requests for investments in the field of green infrastructure projects.

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