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February 15

Opinion Added Value in ABS

Investors are moving back into higher-rated fixed income after years of comparative neglect, and we noted that asset- and mortgage-backed securities (ABS and MBS) offered diversified risk exposures, together with relative value caused mainly by technical supply-and-demand (...)

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Reflections on Davos: Business as usual no longer exists

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Equities head for choppy ride as higher yield market takes hold

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November 2018

Opinion Why we would start reweighting U.S. stock-pickers

We are past the peak of the U.S. earnings reports. In the past, any unusually high individual stock volatility after an earnings announcement was a pattern that only appeared at macro inflection points.

November 2018

Opinion Midterm Elections 2018: Surfing a Blue Wave

As you know, politics have become a major influence on the global economy and financial markets over the past few years (Brexit, the election of Donald Trump, the new Italian government). The upcoming midterm elections for the US Congress on 6 November are yet another (...)

October 2018

Opinion Hedge Funds Take A Hit in early Q4

Hedge funds were not immune to recent market developments. They were down during the first half of October due to the underperformance of CTA, L/S Equity, and Special Situations strategies. Meanwhile, Merger Arbitrage, Fixed Income Arbitrage, Global Macro and L/S Equity (...)

October 2018

Opinion The sell-off accelerates

Equity markets fell on Wednesday with the S&P 500 down 3.1%, extending the index’s losses to 9.4% since hitting an all-time closing high just a few weeks ago on 20 September. With today’s decline the S&P 500 has erased its price gain for the (...)

October 2018

Opinion Why we’re banking on financial inclusion

This rising penetration of financial products and services will, according to Ross Teverson Head of Strategy, Emerging Markets, forge dramatic change in developing regions of the world, in turn creating opportunities for (...)

October 2018

Opinion Perspectives on L/S Equity strategies after the Selloff

Risk assets have yet to find stable ground after the recent turmoil. The rebound in equities since the October 11th trough appears fragile. Last week, the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting were hawkish and Italy’s 10-year sovereign spread with Germany jumped to levels unseen (...)

October 2018

Opinion Capital Market Pulse

We expect risk assets to continue to grind higher, and maintain our exposure. It might not be time to add too much risk, but we don’t think it’s time to take it all off either.

October 2018

Opinion US stocks plunge in tech-fueled rout

On Wednesday, US stocks fell dramatically, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling more than 800 points. The rout was led by technology stocks, with the NASDAQ Composite Index down 316 points, but all sectors experienced losses. This was the worst one-day sell-off for (...)

October 2018

Opinion Eye on America as global liquidity dries up

US economic growth should hold up even as quantitative tightening continues to take its toll in emerging markets, Europe grapples with ongoing structural issues and the UK is hamstrung by Brexit, according to Talib Sheikh, manager of the Jupiter Flexible Income Fund. “In (...)

October 2018

Opinion U.S. Economy: "Historically Rare"

Fed Chairman Powell reiterated the FOMC’s view of the economy as unusually favorable; Argentina has made some gains, courtesy of the IMF; Italy’s latest budget is still a work in progress.

October 2018

Opinion Italy’s expansionary budget goals add to growing risks to sovereign rating

Italy’s announcement of a tentative budget deficit goal of 2.4% of GDP over 2019-2021 could compound the country’s existing debt sustainability challenges. This represents a significant risk to Italy’s A-/Negative Outlook (...)

September 2018

Opinion What happened to hedge funds’alpha since the summer?

While hedge fund performance and alpha were honorable until the summer, our analysis suggests that they erased about 2.5% of alpha since June, with no turn in sight yet in September.

September 2018

Opinion Escaping Lehman’s shadow

Financial markets have staged a remarkable recovery since the fall of Lehman Brothers, but it’s been a joyless affair,” says Vice Chairman Edward Bonham Carter. “The ending of central bank support, both feared and wanted, hangs like a sword of Damocles over the (...)

September 2018

Opinion Is South Africa the Next Currency Crisis?

2018 has been marked by various emerging market crises. From Turkey to Argentina, confidence has eroded, resulting in bond and currency chaos. There is a growing focus on South Africa, and our analysis suggests that will (...)

September 2018

Opinion Lehman: 10 Years After

It’s often said that you should never let a good crisis go to waste. As we approach the 10-year anniversary of the seminal event of the Global Financial Crisis – the collapse of Lehman Brothers – investors may wonder if we’ve learned anything from past mistakes. Through the (...)

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Opinion Despite fears about the Bitcoin ’bubble’ bursting, the price of the new digital coins is going through the roof

According to Daniele Bianchi, of Warwick Business School, is Assistant Professor of Finance and he researches crypto-currencies incluing Bitcoin, despite fears about the Bitcoin ’bubble’ bursting, the price of the new digital coins is going through the (...)

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Opinion Robots have taken power in finance

Describe the real world with numbers is a trend that seems to be accelerating. Thus, digital technology is associated with financial models to show that we (human) interact with our environment using mathematical (...)

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Opinion Perspective and real solvency of banks

Can a universal bank go bankrupt ? An objective, rigorous and professional answer is built in three stages: credibility of the banks performed stress tests - assessment of prudential regulation to come - understanding the evolution of the banking business (...)

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Opinion Fair trade, angel or demon ?

As citizens movements connect politically and economically, fair trade talks about itself. A fair and equitable trade, what is more decent in appearance ? But in order to determine the fair part of trade, we need beforehand to determine what we mean by this (...)

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Opinion Investors pay a high price for emotional decisions

New European research from behavioural finance experts Oxford Risk reveals that over 73% of wealth managers believe emotional decision-making costs investors investment returns.

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Opinion When is it time for the SNB to think about the exit?

According to Goldman Sachs, the SNB’s exchange rate ceiling against the Euro is often seen as a binding constraint on its future interest rate decisions. But the exchange rate commitment is only likely to become a constraint on rate decisions if the CHF remains close to the (...)

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Opinion European equities: Back to basics

Following the French election, European equity markets are breathing a sigh of relief. While some structural challenges remain, strong fundamentals point towards continued European equity outperformance, triggered by reduced political tail (...)

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Opinion During times of uncertainty on the markets, SRI sheds some light on good quality companies.

We often hear that during times of uncertainty on the financial markets, investment decisions are much more driven by market psychology and by macroeconomics than fundamental analysis on listed companies. It is only partly (...)

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Opinion Climate change is an investment play for today

According to Luisa Florez, analyst at AXA IM, It is often said that climate and carbon themes are not financially material risk factors in the short to medium term. As an illustration, to date there have not been any signals from carbon markets to suggest that climate (...)

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Opinion Total Return Futures set for further growth as buy-side adoption increases

Eurex launched Total Return Futures (TRFs) in 2016 in response to growing demand for listed alternatives to total return swaps. Since then, the product has evolved into an instrument used by a wide variety of firms for multiple purposes, enabling firms to lock in financing (...)

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Opinion China goes for ’gently does it’

Chinese economic reforms continue, but the authorities are going about it carefully. After all, they don’t want to risk missing their growth targets. Oil-price declines and the US growth recovery are providing some welcome wind in China’s (...)

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Opinion Brexit update – the end of the beginning

Multiple sources suggest that UK and EU negotiators have reached a draft agreement on Britain’s terms for leaving the EU (the withdrawal agreement) including backstop mechanisms designed to ensure that Brexit does not create a hard border in Northern (...)

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Opinion Smart Betas offer a new approach to bridge market bias

When Alan Greenspan spoke of "market exuberance" (i.e. the lightning-fast mood swings from optimism to an investment bubble popping) wasn’t he referring to what we could call a "Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde" syndrome?

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Opinion Overview of Quantitative Finance in France

A short review of quantitative finance in France under the lens of the Next Finance website: Profile of quants, origins and outlook of the industry.

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Opinion Anatomy of the European Banks Rout – AT1 bonds

European bank stocks have collapsed so far this year whilst their credit default swaps have risen rapidly. Surely the credit and equity markets are telling us something? – Europe’s nascent economic recovery is over? Negative rates are killing net interest margins? They don’t (...)

Focus

Opinion Psychology and smart beta

‘Smart beta’ sounds like an oxymoron. How smart can it be to continue using the same strategy in such fickle markets? A portfolio manager calling on all his skills (‘alpha’) in analysing market environments (the source of ‘beta’) should be able to outperform an unchanged (...)

Focus

Mory Doré’s column

Mory Doré’s views on monetary policy, asset allocation, financial management of banks and understanding of crises

Éclairages Économiques Notebook

The association Éclairages Économiques share with us analysis mostly relying on current research on various economics issues

Selection: Prospects

Regulation Regulatory prospects: 2012 and beyond

2009 was a year of intense reflection on the functioning of the financial sector. There followed an intense regulatory activity in 2010, unfortunately with few formal adoptions of regulations. 2011 marked the surge of the will to succeed with provisional schedules. Where do (...)

Reading An Economic Approach to Marriage

Marriages are not always very stable. A divorce rate of 50 % in developed countries serves to prove. We ask ourselves if it is possible to form stable relationships. An economic analysis may be able to answer this (...)

Note Aging population poses new opportunities for global investment managers

Early conclusions from ongoing SimCorp StrategyLab research point to demographic changes as a key factor influencing the future of the global investment management industry.

Note Launch of green bonds

The term «Green Bonds» is more frequently used to describe a market that should mature very fast in order to deal with numerous requests for investments in the field of green infrastructure projects.

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