Highlights

October 2018

Opinion Italy’s expansionary budget goals add to growing risks to sovereign rating

Italy’s announcement of a tentative budget deficit goal of 2.4% of GDP over 2019-2021 could compound the country’s existing debt sustainability challenges. This represents a significant risk to Italy’s A-/Negative Outlook (...)

Opinion

Greece: referendum reaction

Opinion

Europe – The darkest hour is just before the dawn

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June 2011

Opinion Euro to gain reserve status and expand in the coming years

According to Michael Story, economist at Western Asset, while some peripheral European countries will be unable to escape restructuring their debt, the euro is unlikely to collapse any time soon as a result, and should in the short to medium term strengthen its position as a (...)

June 2011

Opinion Can the euro survive democracy?

If Greece is allowed to default now, the risk of a confidence crisis and contagion is substantial. The debt of other weak eurozone countries may fall victim to speculators and the market for credit default swaps could experience difficulties (...)

June 2011

Opinion The never ending story

The fall-out from the Lehman default in 2008 should remind everybody that a negative feedback mechanism into other parts of the financial system and the real economy can create a negative-sum game for all parties (...)

May 2011

Opinion Greece: awaiting the inevitable

The credit default swap market is pricing in a 65% probability of a default within the next five years.

May 2011

Strategy Buy in may and go away

According to Mandarine Gestion, current valuation levels in the banking sector constitute opportunities rarely seen over a medium-term horizon. However, over the short term, investors are preferring to focus on two factors while at the same time exaggerating in our view (...)

April 2011

Note Trying to assess the Cajas’ mess

The real estate bubble was huge and now Spanish banks are in a mess. Two questions come to mind: why does this comes into the spotlight so late ? what is the exact size of the mess and what is the possible impact of a full stress scenario on financial markets (...)

April 2011

Opinion The monetary policy crapshoot

One of the key factors driving the relentless move up in equity markets has been the massive surge in liquidity supplied by central banks. One of the biggest risks in the second quarter is whether the liquidity tailwind turns into a headwind for (...)

March 2011

Note The EMF has been created, long live the EMF!

Philip Hall and Adrian Paturle give an update on the operation of ESM: European leaders have largely been inspired by the IMF...

February 2011

Strategy What would it take to solve the eurozone crisis?

Last year’s key call was to spot the indebtedness of peripheral European governments and go underweight quickly. Those who did prospered all year, but in January of this year they got a nasty shock as peripheral spreads came rattling in and peripheral financials (...)

January 2011

News Sarkozy wants major changes in commodities markets !

Sarkozy also told speculators to be prepared for big losses if they bet against the euro

January 2011

Note The frantic flight to liquidity and solvency

Some markets have been exhibiting dysfunctions for nearly 4 years. The flight to liquidity and compliance with solvency requirements of banks and states with financial issues, have been - and still is - only ensured by non-conventional financing provisions and emergency (...)

January 2011

News Investors welcome the issuance of European Union’s bonds for the bailout of Ireland

The market welcomes, on wednesday, the first wave of bonds issued by the European Union to raise funds for Ireland.

January 2011

News The euro currency area has only a one-in-five chance of surviving in its current form

The euro currency area has only a one-in-five chance of surviving in its current form over the next 10 years because of competitive imbalances between its members, a leading British think tank said on Friday.

January 2011

Financial crisis Eurozone: 3 future scenarios

This is the first part of a series consisting of 3 articles covering the perspectives of the Eurozone… In order to get out of the crisis, three scenarios are conceivable. The most probable of them is unfortunately the one where one or several countries exit the economic and (...)

November 2010

Strategy What strategy on Irish bonds and bonds of so-called peripheral countries?

According to Natixis AM, the bailout plan should support the short end of curve and strengthen Irish bonds with residual maturity of 1 to 3 years, which offer attractive carry at yields of around 4.80%.

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Opinion Decline in Eurozone growth set to continue into 2012

ING Investment Management is warning that a combination of fiscal austerity, a lingering debt crisis and a slow down in external demand will translate into a fall in Eurozone GDP growth from 1.7 to 1.0.

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Opinion The Euro will survive, but not the current Euro zone !

If the existence of the euro is not challenged, it is the case of the euro zone in its current configuration. In the same way that cohabitation between countries with maintaining parity exchange had become impossible in the EMS, cohabitation has become impossible within (...)

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News Chinese rating agency Dagong downgrades the U.S rating

The Chinese rating agency Dagong Global Credit Rating Co. has downgraded last Thursday the credit rating of the United States to A +, on negative watch for possible downgrade. The agency had already downgraded the rating of France and (...)

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Stories The Greek crisis : the Danaides’ barrel ?

Back on the Greek saga or the largest bankruptcy in the 21st century without credit event trigger (to date). The succession of bailout plans shows that we do not simply resolve the insolvency of a country by emergency (...)

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Opinion The never ending story

The fall-out from the Lehman default in 2008 should remind everybody that a negative feedback mechanism into other parts of the financial system and the real economy can create a negative-sum game for all parties (...)

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Note Challenges for Europe’s banks

Even in the seemingly unlikely case that a comprehensive solution to the sovereign crisis is found, the changed regulatory backdrop is a major challenge for the banks, and probably for the economy as a whole.

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Kiosk Understanding the eurozone crisis and its various facets

The current crisis is multiple. Initially sovereign and financial, it then became a social and political crisis. These changes do not facilitate the assessment of the situation, let alone the implementation of solutions. Back on the various facets of the (...)

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Note Scenarios for Public Sector Debt

The evolution of public sector debt depends on a number of economic variables and how they interact. Within the Eurozone, German and French debt looks sustainable while Italy, Portugal and Ireland appear borderline.

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Opinion Again and again the bank stress tests

Certainly it never ceases to write about the bank stress tests since it keeps getting more into banks; if proof were needed of the total lack of credibility of those made up to now

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Opinion The Euro will survive In fine !

We do not believe or at least most of the implosion scenarios of the euro zone regardless of the terms. -Not because we would be trying to find one or several sustainable solutions to the crisis of sovereign debt, but because such a process would cost too much to everybody (...)

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Note The July – August 2011 market crash. Technical analysis and long term issues!

According to Jacques Ninet, head of research at UFG-LFP, it is obvious that the monetary European Union (an imperfect Trojan horse towards federalism) only gets half the job done when it comes to forging economic (...)

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Opinion Euro to gain reserve status and expand in the coming years

According to Michael Story, economist at Western Asset, while some peripheral European countries will be unable to escape restructuring their debt, the euro is unlikely to collapse any time soon as a result, and should in the short to medium term strengthen its position as a (...)

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Note The EMF has been created, long live the EMF!

Philip Hall and Adrian Paturle give an update on the operation of ESM: European leaders have largely been inspired by the IMF...

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Financial crisis Back on the true origins of the crisis

More than 4 years after the official start, now where everyone wonders how we will emerge from this ongoing crisis, let’s come back for a moment on the true origins.

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Financial crisis Eurozone: 3 future scenarios

This is the first part of a series consisting of 3 articles covering the perspectives of the Eurozone… In order to get out of the crisis, three scenarios are conceivable. The most probable of them is unfortunately the one where one or several countries exit the economic and (...)

Focus

News Eurozone: How the City is bracing itself for the worst.

Within the large investment banks, special teams consisting of 10 to 30 people have been assembled in order to develop rescue kits designed to face all types of scenarios resulting from a breakup of the Eurozone.

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Greek crisis

Focus on the greek crisis

Irish crisis

Focus on the irish crisis

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