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Mory Doré’s column

Highlights

September 2012

Note The true nature of the derivative contract on French debt

The multiplication of misinterpretations related to the launch of the derivative contract on French debt leads to an apolitical analysis produced by a market professional to avoid amalgam and populism: This is a simple and useful contract, which was traded in the past in (...)

Opinion

Financial correlations and loss of common sense

Note

Financial markets: Local shock but global crisis

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January 2011

Opinion Stock markets: upcoming crash in 2011

The recent rise in stock markets is rather artificial and based on fragile factors. The structural ones remain bearish: prudential developments, systemic risk, and true inflation expectations in the long term mainly in the United (...)

January 2011

Financial crisis Eurozone: 3 future scenarios

This is the first part of a series consisting of 3 articles covering the perspectives of the Eurozone… In order to get out of the crisis, three scenarios are conceivable. The most probable of them is unfortunately the one where one or several countries exit the economic and (...)

November 2010

Opinion Bond bubble today and tomorrow ... Bond crash the day after tomorrow

Long-term rates that can not rise on short term, despite the abysmal public deficits ...

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Mory Doré’s column Politics and financial markets: misunderstandings that are not new

Small point into the complex and tumultuous relations, misunderstood, between financial markets and politics. In these troubled times where the markets are supposedly expecting clear answers from politics and where at the same time, the same markets are accused of (...)

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Financial crisis Back on the true origins of the crisis

More than 4 years after the official start, now where everyone wonders how we will emerge from this ongoing crisis, let’s come back for a moment on the true origins.

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Opinion Perspective and real solvency of banks

Can a universal bank go bankrupt ? An objective, rigorous and professional answer is built in three stages: credibility of the banks performed stress tests - assessment of prudential regulation to come - understanding the evolution of the banking business (...)

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Opinion Mathematical models in finance and embedded risk underestimation

The statistical assumption of normal (log-normal) distribution of stock returns (prices) is not that strong and tail events’ occurrence is largely undervalued. Nevertheless, this modeling framework has been widely used for strong (...)

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Opinion The Euro will survive In fine !

We do not believe or at least most of the implosion scenarios of the euro zone regardless of the terms. -Not because we would be trying to find one or several sustainable solutions to the crisis of sovereign debt, but because such a process would cost too much to everybody (...)

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Stories The Greek crisis : the Danaides’ barrel ?

Back on the Greek saga or the largest bankruptcy in the 21st century without credit event trigger (to date). The succession of bailout plans shows that we do not simply resolve the insolvency of a country by emergency (...)

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Note Euro zone bailout plans: origin and utilization

Back on bailout plans granted to countries in the Euro zone encountering severe fiscal deficits since May 2010. How are tens of billions Euros raised, what are they for, and mainly, are those amounts enough to re-establish the public finances and stabilize those countries (...)

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Opinion Greece rescue - Behind the scenes

Debt rescheduling, monetary policies questioning and EFSF bond purchases in the secondary market. These are the key steps of a plan that should not significantly affect banks’ net income but rather spread economic losses over (...)

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Note Strategic tasks of central banks: focus on the ECB

Beyond the traditional measures and in a context of systemic risk, we wonder about what specifically should be the strategic tasks of a central bank

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Opinion Central Banks : the global financial system trashcans ?

Institutionalized monetization condemns central banks to become the international financial system trashcans and, despite German opposition, it is likely to be the same for the ECB.

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Opinion Equity markets: two mistakes to avoid.

The negative news flow coming from financial markets does not mean we should give up. This article provides two small pieces of advice or rather two mistakes that must be avoided or that must never be repeated.

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Strategy Bond market: Investment opportunities on yield curves

Anticipations on future monetary policy and risk aversion linked to systemic threats create investment opportunities on the yield curves of US and Euro bonds. However, those opportunities cannot be seized before two fundamental questions have been (...)

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Opinion Reviewing the bank stress tests – July 2011

As was seen during the stress tests carried out in July 2010, the latest ones published by the European Banking Authority on the 15th of July 2011 do not include a proper measure of market systemic risk. This hinders their (...)

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Strategy Investing during market turmoil

The idea that considers equity investing as long term has simply become absurd nowadays and has been so during the last 10 years. Let us be reassured. Opportunities will still be around. The only real question nowadays is how to allocate between real assets and financial (...)

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Opinion Stock markets: upcoming crash in 2011

The recent rise in stock markets is rather artificial and based on fragile factors. The structural ones remain bearish: prudential developments, systemic risk, and true inflation expectations in the long term mainly in the United (...)

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Mory Doré’s column About the author

Financial market professional active on various fields for more than 20 years, Mory Doré is a key advisor of his company on portfolio and risk management for various financial institutions. In addition, he is also a trainer, teacher and (...)

Focus

Monetary policy

Analysis and comments on central banks monetary policies and marcoeconomic situation

Asset allocation

role of fundamentals, investor behavior, regulatory and prudential changes

Financial crisis

Understanding the source of financial crisis and the mechanisms behind

Bank Financial Management

Constraints and objectives of financial management of banking institution

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