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Mory Doré’s column

Highlights

September 2012

Note The true nature of the derivative contract on French debt

The multiplication of misinterpretations related to the launch of the derivative contract on French debt leads to an apolitical analysis produced by a market professional to avoid amalgam and populism: This is a simple and useful contract, which was traded in the past in (...)

Opinion

Financial correlations and loss of common sense

Note

Financial markets: Local shock but global crisis

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January 2011

Opinion Stock markets: upcoming crash in 2011

The recent rise in stock markets is rather artificial and based on fragile factors. The structural ones remain bearish: prudential developments, systemic risk, and true inflation expectations in the long term mainly in the United (...)

January 2011

Financial crisis Eurozone: 3 future scenarios

This is the first part of a series consisting of 3 articles covering the perspectives of the Eurozone… In order to get out of the crisis, three scenarios are conceivable. The most probable of them is unfortunately the one where one or several countries exit the economic and (...)

November 2010

Opinion Bond bubble today and tomorrow ... Bond crash the day after tomorrow

Long-term rates that can not rise on short term, despite the abysmal public deficits ...

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Strategy Forex, a value added in an allocation between real and financial assets

The foreign exchange market (Forex) is not an extra asset class but all asset classes together in the same market. It can be a real source of diversification and performance subject to a systematic, disciplined and rigorous (...)

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Opinion The Euro will survive, but not the current Euro zone !

If the existence of the euro is not challenged, it is the case of the euro zone in its current configuration. In the same way that cohabitation between countries with maintaining parity exchange had become impossible in the EMS, cohabitation has become impossible within (...)

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Note Financial crisis indicators and safe haven assets

How to measure the intensity of the current financial and economic crisis? Regular monitoring of a number of economic and financial indicators helps answering this question and better understanding the materialization of panic behavior and portfolio reallocations in the (...)

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Opinion Central Banks : the global financial system trashcans ?

Institutionalized monetization condemns central banks to become the international financial system trashcans and, despite German opposition, it is likely to be the same for the ECB.

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Note Euro zone bailout plans: origin and utilization

Back on bailout plans granted to countries in the Euro zone encountering severe fiscal deficits since May 2010. How are tens of billions Euros raised, what are they for, and mainly, are those amounts enough to re-establish the public finances and stabilize those countries (...)

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Opinion Mathematical models in finance and embedded risk underestimation

The statistical assumption of normal (log-normal) distribution of stock returns (prices) is not that strong and tail events’ occurrence is largely undervalued. Nevertheless, this modeling framework has been widely used for strong (...)

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Opinion Robots have taken power in finance

Describe the real world with numbers is a trend that seems to be accelerating. Thus, digital technology is associated with financial models to show that we (human) interact with our environment using mathematical (...)

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Opinion Reviewing the bank stress tests – July 2011

As was seen during the stress tests carried out in July 2010, the latest ones published by the European Banking Authority on the 15th of July 2011 do not include a proper measure of market systemic risk. This hinders their (...)

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Mory Doré’s column Politics and financial markets: misunderstandings that are not new

Small point into the complex and tumultuous relations, misunderstood, between financial markets and politics. In these troubled times where the markets are supposedly expecting clear answers from politics and where at the same time, the same markets are accused of (...)

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Note Usefulness and competence of rating agencies

This is not electoral populism to only criticize rating agencies, rather than question their economic utility and try to ask questions about their actual skills, in other words their ability to analyze the creditworthiness of issuers they (...)

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Opinion Bond bubble today and tomorrow ... Bond crash the day after tomorrow

Long-term rates that can not rise on short term, despite the abysmal public deficits ...

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Opinion Complex and useless finance is still there

While complex finance should be preferred to improve risk modeling, it continues, in times of market stress, to help designing unmanageable and useless complex structured products

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Opinion Euro-dollar outlook

So many reasons to sell the Euro against the dollar. Nevertheless we can expect a fall of the euro in the second half of 2011. The dollar should continue to remain for now a safe haven despite the monstrous imbalances in the US economy and because of the real risk of (...)

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Opinion The Euro will survive In fine !

We do not believe or at least most of the implosion scenarios of the euro zone regardless of the terms. -Not because we would be trying to find one or several sustainable solutions to the crisis of sovereign debt, but because such a process would cost too much to everybody (...)

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Note 10 proposals to rebuild finance and monetary macroeconomics

Rethink monetary policy and its objectives, reform our accounting and prudential environment, review the return on equity standards, regulate the prices of certain assets...

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Mory Doré’s column About the author

Financial market professional active on various fields for more than 20 years, Mory Doré is a key advisor of his company on portfolio and risk management for various financial institutions. In addition, he is also a trainer, teacher and (...)

Focus

Monetary policy

Analysis and comments on central banks monetary policies and marcoeconomic situation

Asset allocation

role of fundamentals, investor behavior, regulatory and prudential changes

Financial crisis

Understanding the source of financial crisis and the mechanisms behind

Bank Financial Management

Constraints and objectives of financial management of banking institution

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