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April 2017

Strategy Trade war risk fades, for now

We see a reduced near-term risk of trade wars, as President Donald Trump’s White House appears to have softened its stance toward both the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and China. This could benefit emerging markets (...)

April 2017

News Resilient Hedge Funds amid Political and Geopolitical Stress

The accumulation of (geo)political risks sent markets on the haven side. Ten days before the first French election round, the outcome remains ever more uncertain. The advance in polls of the two lead contenders is eroding. Meanwhile, the resilience of the center-right and (...)

April 2017

Strategy Policy uncertainty vs economic certainty

Policy uncertainty was recently been at the highest levels we have ever seen. However spreads have remained relatively tight and volatility was close to record low levels. The cash bond market is still trading in a tight range in the past couple of months and implied vols (...)

April 2017

Opinion French elections – Place your bets, last call

While a moderate candidate is the most likely victor in our assessment, the situation remains fluid with little risk priced in. In such an environment, we believe it is important to protect investors in our multi asset portfolios from market shocks. We have tactically (...)

April 2017

Opinion Room to run for reflationary assets

Most reflation trades aren’t crowded or expensive, our research suggests. U.S. stock prices more fully reflect the maturing reflationary cycle, and we see better opportunities in Europe, Japan and EM stocks. We also prefer U.S. credit over government (...)

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