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February 15

Opinion Added Value in ABS

Investors are moving back into higher-rated fixed income after years of comparative neglect, and we noted that asset- and mortgage-backed securities (ABS and MBS) offered diversified risk exposures, together with relative value caused mainly by technical supply-and-demand (...)

Opinion

Reflections on Davos: Business as usual no longer exists

Opinion

Equities head for choppy ride as higher yield market takes hold

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February 2016

Opinion Latest BoJ currency war salvo unlikely to be effective

According to Simon Ward, Chief Economist, Henderson Global Investors, the Bank of Japan’s surprise decision to introduce a negative interest rate on the top tier of banks’ reserve holdings recalls the famous Beyond the Fringe sketch in which Peter Cook’s squadron leader (...)

January 2016

Opinion The US rate rise is symbolic

Sebastian Radcliffe, manager of the Jupiter North American Income Fund, comments on the decision by the US Federal Reserve to increase interest rates for the first time since 2006

January 2016

Opinion The More Things Change …

For all that happened in 2015, one has to wonder if it will be lost in the textbooks as a pretty uneventful year. Sure it was the year of Ukraine, the Volkswagen scandal, “Unicorns”, ISIS, China’s slowdown, Fed “liftoff”, and another chapter in the Greece drama, but what really (...)

January 2016

Opinion European Equity Market : Outlook 2016

We live in extraordinary times. The distortions caused by quantitative easing and near zero interest rate policies have been felt in just about every asset class...

January 2016

Opinion 2016 Fixed Income Outlook

For some time, commentators have been itching to call the top of the great bond bull market. They point to improving economic conditions in the developed economies, a tightening US labour market and a long-awaited normalisation of interest rate policy after many years of (...)

January 2016

Opinion Global Emerging Markets Equity 2016 Outlook

According to Ross Teverson, Head of Global Emerging Markets, finally, it is worth noting that, today, emerging market valuations - in terms of price to book ratios - are relatively depressed versus history. At times when valuations have been at or around these levels, strong (...)

January 2016

Opinion China at crossroads

According to Aninda Mitra, senior sovereign analyst at Standish Mellon Asset Management, the International Monetary Fund’s in-principle acceptance of the CNY in the SDR basket is, in our view, an important step in cementing the process of greater medium-term capital account (...)

January 2016

Opinion 2016 could be difficult for markets

According to Paul Markham, global equities portfolio manager at Newton Investment Management, for an overall outlook on equities, it’s too early to tell whether a bad start to the year can be a sign that 2016 will be problematic. However it is true that leadership of markets (...)

January 2016

Opinion SNL Financial: Will Equities Still Boom and FICC suffer in 2016?

SNL Financial data shows how equities and M&A success have helped investment banks offset pain in fixed income, currencies and commodities (FICC) through the first nine months of 2015, a trend they may well need to continue in (...)

January 2016

Opinion 2016 Market Outlook: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research Forecasts the Return of Value Investing on Rising Rates, Risks and Earnings

Glass Half-Full: Bullish on Stocks, Not Sectors; Year of Modest Global Growth: U.S. Grows, China Slows and Brazil Contracts; More Volatility as Monetary Policies Diverge, Rates and Regulations Collide

December 2015

Opinion Finally the Fed rate hike is there

After a year of talking about it we finally got it. The Fed starts hiking rates for the first time in more than 9 years. It has been long anticipated, so one has to wonder what it will actually mean if everybody had so much time to prepare for it. Probably not too much (...)

December 2015

Opinion The ‘Road to Paris’: this time is different

With only a few weeks to go until the start of the UN Climate Change Conference in Paris, Charlie Thomas, Head of Strategy, Environmental Investment, is optimistic about the talks.

November 2015

Opinion Multi-asset strategies offer an alternative in liquidity driven markets

One of the key reasons which makes multi-asset investing attractive are the generally low yields. As a result of the global financial crisis, central banks around the world have lowered their key interest rates and engaged in unconventional easing measures. In this (...)

November 2015

Opinion Bond yields are heading up

According to Christophe Donay, Chief Strategist at Pictet Wealth Management, Bond yields are heading up. The rebound in equity markets since the beginning of October, looks largely played out, with further gains dependant on a turnaround in earnings forecasts. Yields on DM (...)

November 2015

Opinion The great bond bull market is not over

Despite talk of a ‘great normalisation’ of monetary policy, persistent deflationary pressures mean global interest rates are set to stay lower for longer, according to Ariel Bezalel, manager of the Jupiter Dynamic Bond (...)

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Opinion Review of the chinese economy at the end of the summer of 2019

The monthly data published at the start of the second quarter are fairly mixed and show no tangible signs of growth momentum improving in China. The GDP published for the second quarter has recently confirmed this sentiment. The slowdown at work since the start of the decade (...)

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Opinion Total Return Futures set for further growth as buy-side adoption increases

Eurex launched Total Return Futures (TRFs) in 2016 in response to growing demand for listed alternatives to total return swaps. Since then, the product has evolved into an instrument used by a wide variety of firms for multiple purposes, enabling firms to lock in financing (...)

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Opinion Silver squeeze: What’s behind the surge in silver?

Silver is in the spotlight this week, after the popular r/WallStreetBets community on Reddit highlighted the fundamental value in acquiring silver at current levels. The online posting was the catalyst for increased retail flows and awareness. Last Thursday 28 January, the (...)

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Opinion Central Banks : the global financial system trashcans ?

Institutionalized monetization condemns central banks to become the international financial system trashcans and, despite German opposition, it is likely to be the same for the ECB.

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Opinion Despite fears about the Bitcoin ’bubble’ bursting, the price of the new digital coins is going through the roof

According to Daniele Bianchi, of Warwick Business School, is Assistant Professor of Finance and he researches crypto-currencies incluing Bitcoin, despite fears about the Bitcoin ’bubble’ bursting, the price of the new digital coins is going through the (...)

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Opinion Global Emerging Markets Equity 2016 Outlook

According to Ross Teverson, Head of Global Emerging Markets, finally, it is worth noting that, today, emerging market valuations - in terms of price to book ratios - are relatively depressed versus history. At times when valuations have been at or around these levels, strong (...)

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Opinion Accidental Americans Create Headache for French, European Banks

Boris Johnson, who was born in New York but left when he was five, found it outrageous that he was obliged to pay US taxes. The easy solution was to pay to renounce his US citizenship, which he did in 2016. Hundreds of other accidental Americans don’t have the luxury of such (...)

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Opinion Outlook Brazil

Brazil is in recession territory. The country’s fiscal consolidation plan had a major set-back in July as the finance minister Joaquim Levy announced a significant downward revision of the government’s primary fiscal surplus targets. In august, S&P placed Brazil’s foreign (...)

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Opinion « Surprising Russia »

Based on the experiences of recent years, there are few stock markets that are more risky than Russia’s. After the Brazilian and South African market, the Russian market has been the most sensitive to increasing risk aversion among investors since the market correction of (...)

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Opinion German fiscal stimulus, can we believe it?

It appears that a German fiscal stimulus is not imminent and that these effects would take time to materialize. Maintaining a budget surplus target while the Eurosystem will start buying German bonds again from November will maintain downward pressure on German long-term (...)

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Opinion Sustainable investing: sector rotations may prove short-lived

Hamish Chamberlayne, portfolio manager within Henderson’s global equity sustainable investment team, discusses the significant sector rotations seen in 2016. He explains why the reversals in the energy and healthcare sectors may prove short-lived, given the longer-term themes (...)

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Opinion Gold, mines and natural resources: Acceleration in momentum

After testing the $1200/oz. support in early July ($1204.7/oz. on 10 July), the gold price once again took on the psychological resistance level of $1300/oz. It brushed up against this barrier once, on 18 August ($1301/oz.), but not until late in the month did it cross it at (...)

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Opinion Gold, Mines and Natural Resources: The greenback picks up

Having reached their highest point since August 2016 ($1,357.6/oz), gold prices slumped, falling below $1,300/oz and weighing on their 100-day average. Janet Yellen’s more hawkish speech at the last FOMC pushed up to 70% the likelihood the Fed will raise key rates in (...)

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Opinion A Tulip for London

We suspect the architects behind “the Tulip” are giving a nod to the famous European Tulip Mania of 1637. Even if the building is never completed, there may be no more fitting end to such a long trend toward positive social mood in the (...)

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Opinion To predict or to adapt?

According to Fabrice Foy, Quantitative Analyst at CCR-AM, we should do the exact opposite of the classical theory: the stock price does not reflect fundamentals, and if it deviates from its fundamental value, it does not necessarily tend to revert (...)

Focus

Opinion Psychology and smart beta

‘Smart beta’ sounds like an oxymoron. How smart can it be to continue using the same strategy in such fickle markets? A portfolio manager calling on all his skills (‘alpha’) in analysing market environments (the source of ‘beta’) should be able to outperform an unchanged (...)

Focus

Mory Doré’s column

Mory Doré’s views on monetary policy, asset allocation, financial management of banks and understanding of crises

Éclairages Économiques Notebook

The association Éclairages Économiques share with us analysis mostly relying on current research on various economics issues

Selection: Prospects

Regulation Regulatory prospects: 2012 and beyond

2009 was a year of intense reflection on the functioning of the financial sector. There followed an intense regulatory activity in 2010, unfortunately with few formal adoptions of regulations. 2011 marked the surge of the will to succeed with provisional schedules. Where do (...)

Reading An Economic Approach to Marriage

Marriages are not always very stable. A divorce rate of 50 % in developed countries serves to prove. We ask ourselves if it is possible to form stable relationships. An economic analysis may be able to answer this (...)

Note Aging population poses new opportunities for global investment managers

Early conclusions from ongoing SimCorp StrategyLab research point to demographic changes as a key factor influencing the future of the global investment management industry.

Note Launch of green bonds

The term «Green Bonds» is more frequently used to describe a market that should mature very fast in order to deal with numerous requests for investments in the field of green infrastructure projects.

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