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February 15

Opinion Added Value in ABS

Investors are moving back into higher-rated fixed income after years of comparative neglect, and we noted that asset- and mortgage-backed securities (ABS and MBS) offered diversified risk exposures, together with relative value caused mainly by technical supply-and-demand (...)

Opinion

Reflections on Davos: Business as usual no longer exists

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Equities head for choppy ride as higher yield market takes hold

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December 2016

Opinion Equity markets are being complacent on Italy & Europe

According to James Butterfill, Head of Research & Investment Strategy at ETF Securities, the Italian referendum yesterday signified a worrying trend for the rest of Europe in confirming the rise of populist parties in the EU, and particularly important given that 70% of (...)

November 2016

Opinion From “low volatility growth” to “high volatility value”

In our view, the recent sharp market rotation that we have seen – from “low volatility growth” to “high volatility value” – is a continuation and acceleration of the trend change that has been underway since the third quarter of this year. The turning point for “quality growth” (...)

November 2016

Opinion Global bond markets : « too far, too fast ? »

Global bond markets, especially emerging markets, took it on the chin over the past five trading days as investors reacted to the U.S. election results and soaring expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in (...)

November 2016

Opinion Trump leads Republican sweep as US rejects status quo

Global uncertainty to remain as election result signals further rolling back of globalisation themes, with emerging markets likely to see greatest impact. For the US, the Republican sweep in both houses will facilitate Trump’s agenda with a focus on domestic growth, spending (...)

November 2016

Opinion A Trump presidency

It’s Brexit all over again. The surge in anti-establishment sentiment is definitively global. Brexit can no longer be dismissed as a freak event. It is a trend. Donald Trump has won, by defying his party, the media, and conventional politics. Populism is coming to power. The (...)

November 2016

Opinion A Trump card in the US deck

US voters have put their faith in Donald Trump, electing him as the 45th US President. As with the “Brexit” vote in the UK, this can be seen as another victory for the politics of anger currently sweeping across Western (...)

November 2016

Opinion Trump on the Brink – Geopolitical & Market Implications

Donald Trump’s ability to resonate with the populist mood has proven successful– populism in the developed world is on a worrying rise. We have collated what we believe are the most important investment implications of Donald Trump winning the US (...)

November 2016

Opinion Trump victory: a non-event for markets?

The Fed should maintain its data-dependent normalization course with a rate hike likely mid-December 2016. Fed fund futures signal the market has not changed its mind on the Fed staying dovish in 2017. Janet Yellen’s four-year mandate as chair of the Board of Governors will (...)

November 2016

Opinion President-elect Trump. 5 predictions on what happens next in the global economy and markets.

The votes are in and it is clear. For the second time in 2016 we have had a major rejection of the political status quo. Following on from the shock UK referendum result, a Trump victory is further evidence that many believe that we have reached peak globalisation and income (...)

November 2016

Opinion What does Brexit mean to Property Investors & Developers?

Initial shock at the prospect of leaving the EU sent the markets into decline, but have they not reacted pretty much as anticipated? Never letting a crisis go without opportunity, selling high to force a low, and then buy back? An analysis from Rick Nicholls, Managing (...)

November 2016

Opinion A Clinton victory reduces political uncertainty

According to Martin Arnold, Director – FX & Macro Strategist, ETF Securities, a Clinton victory reduces political uncertainty, and takes another excuse away from the Federal Reserve to not raise rates at December FOMC meeting. USD is likely to continue to strengthen, (...)

November 2016

Opinion International Equity : Why a Trump victory would not be the worst result

The biggest concern would be if the winning candidate manages to get control of both houses. According to Nick Clay, manager at Newton Investment Management, a subsidiary of BNY Mellon IM group, if that were to happen, then radical policy changes could be set in (...)

November 2016

Opinion Curve Steepening – Already Been There?

Most developed market yield curves have suffered bear steepening over the past few weeks, despite quantitative easing (QE).

November 2016

Opinion We are increasingly mindful of the threats to risk assets that are looming on the horizon

In a world where a significant segment of government bond yields continue to hover in or near negative territory, the credit cycle looks to be nearing its end, and the devaluation of sterling is dominating the agenda, we are increasingly mindful of the threats to risk assets (...)

October 2016

Opinion Hard time for sterling

According to Luc Luyet and Frederik Ducrozet, Asset Allocation & Macro Research, Pictet Wealth Management, the sharp drop of the sterling on Friday 7 October at the start of trading in Asia with the currency declining 6% in the course of twenty minutes was the climax of (...)

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Opinion Review of the chinese economy at the end of the summer of 2019

The monthly data published at the start of the second quarter are fairly mixed and show no tangible signs of growth momentum improving in China. The GDP published for the second quarter has recently confirmed this sentiment. The slowdown at work since the start of the decade (...)

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Opinion Total Return Futures set for further growth as buy-side adoption increases

Eurex launched Total Return Futures (TRFs) in 2016 in response to growing demand for listed alternatives to total return swaps. Since then, the product has evolved into an instrument used by a wide variety of firms for multiple purposes, enabling firms to lock in financing (...)

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Opinion Silver squeeze: What’s behind the surge in silver?

Silver is in the spotlight this week, after the popular r/WallStreetBets community on Reddit highlighted the fundamental value in acquiring silver at current levels. The online posting was the catalyst for increased retail flows and awareness. Last Thursday 28 January, the (...)

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Opinion Central Banks : the global financial system trashcans ?

Institutionalized monetization condemns central banks to become the international financial system trashcans and, despite German opposition, it is likely to be the same for the ECB.

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Opinion Time for crypto investors to look beyond bitcoin for returns

New analysis by London-based Nickel Digital Asset Management (Nickel), Europe’s award-winning, regulated digital assets hedge fund manager is highlighting the need for crypto investors to start to look beyond Bitcoin for potential (...)

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Opinion Despite fears about the Bitcoin ’bubble’ bursting, the price of the new digital coins is going through the roof

According to Daniele Bianchi, of Warwick Business School, is Assistant Professor of Finance and he researches crypto-currencies incluing Bitcoin, despite fears about the Bitcoin ’bubble’ bursting, the price of the new digital coins is going through the (...)

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Opinion Global Emerging Markets Equity 2016 Outlook

According to Ross Teverson, Head of Global Emerging Markets, finally, it is worth noting that, today, emerging market valuations - in terms of price to book ratios - are relatively depressed versus history. At times when valuations have been at or around these levels, strong (...)

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Opinion Accidental Americans Create Headache for French, European Banks

Boris Johnson, who was born in New York but left when he was five, found it outrageous that he was obliged to pay US taxes. The easy solution was to pay to renounce his US citizenship, which he did in 2016. Hundreds of other accidental Americans don’t have the luxury of such (...)

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Opinion Outlook Brazil

Brazil is in recession territory. The country’s fiscal consolidation plan had a major set-back in July as the finance minister Joaquim Levy announced a significant downward revision of the government’s primary fiscal surplus targets. In august, S&P placed Brazil’s foreign (...)

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Opinion « Surprising Russia »

Based on the experiences of recent years, there are few stock markets that are more risky than Russia’s. After the Brazilian and South African market, the Russian market has been the most sensitive to increasing risk aversion among investors since the market correction of (...)

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Opinion German fiscal stimulus, can we believe it?

It appears that a German fiscal stimulus is not imminent and that these effects would take time to materialize. Maintaining a budget surplus target while the Eurosystem will start buying German bonds again from November will maintain downward pressure on German long-term (...)

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Opinion Sustainable investing: sector rotations may prove short-lived

Hamish Chamberlayne, portfolio manager within Henderson’s global equity sustainable investment team, discusses the significant sector rotations seen in 2016. He explains why the reversals in the energy and healthcare sectors may prove short-lived, given the longer-term themes (...)

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Opinion Gold, mines and natural resources: Acceleration in momentum

After testing the $1200/oz. support in early July ($1204.7/oz. on 10 July), the gold price once again took on the psychological resistance level of $1300/oz. It brushed up against this barrier once, on 18 August ($1301/oz.), but not until late in the month did it cross it at (...)

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Opinion Gold, Mines and Natural Resources: The greenback picks up

Having reached their highest point since August 2016 ($1,357.6/oz), gold prices slumped, falling below $1,300/oz and weighing on their 100-day average. Janet Yellen’s more hawkish speech at the last FOMC pushed up to 70% the likelihood the Fed will raise key rates in (...)

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Opinion A Tulip for London

We suspect the architects behind “the Tulip” are giving a nod to the famous European Tulip Mania of 1637. Even if the building is never completed, there may be no more fitting end to such a long trend toward positive social mood in the (...)

Focus

Opinion Psychology and smart beta

‘Smart beta’ sounds like an oxymoron. How smart can it be to continue using the same strategy in such fickle markets? A portfolio manager calling on all his skills (‘alpha’) in analysing market environments (the source of ‘beta’) should be able to outperform an unchanged (...)

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Mory Doré’s column

Mory Doré’s views on monetary policy, asset allocation, financial management of banks and understanding of crises

Éclairages Économiques Notebook

The association Éclairages Économiques share with us analysis mostly relying on current research on various economics issues

Selection: Prospects

Regulation Regulatory prospects: 2012 and beyond

2009 was a year of intense reflection on the functioning of the financial sector. There followed an intense regulatory activity in 2010, unfortunately with few formal adoptions of regulations. 2011 marked the surge of the will to succeed with provisional schedules. Where do (...)

Reading An Economic Approach to Marriage

Marriages are not always very stable. A divorce rate of 50 % in developed countries serves to prove. We ask ourselves if it is possible to form stable relationships. An economic analysis may be able to answer this (...)

Note Aging population poses new opportunities for global investment managers

Early conclusions from ongoing SimCorp StrategyLab research point to demographic changes as a key factor influencing the future of the global investment management industry.

Note Launch of green bonds

The term «Green Bonds» is more frequently used to describe a market that should mature very fast in order to deal with numerous requests for investments in the field of green infrastructure projects.

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