June 2011
Opinion Euro to gain reserve status and expand in the coming years
According to Michael Story, economist at Western Asset, while some peripheral European countries will be unable to escape restructuring their debt, the euro is unlikely to collapse any time soon as a result, and should in the short to medium term strengthen its position as a (...)
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June 2011
Opinion Can the euro survive democracy?
If Greece is allowed to default now, the risk of a confidence crisis and contagion is substantial. The debt of other weak eurozone countries may fall victim to speculators and the market for credit default swaps could experience difficulties (...)
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June 2011
Opinion The never ending story
The fall-out from the Lehman default in 2008 should remind everybody that a negative feedback mechanism into other parts of the financial system and the real economy can create a negative-sum game for all parties (...)
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May 2011
Opinion Greece: awaiting the inevitable
The credit default swap market is pricing in a 65% probability of a default within the next five years.
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May 2011
Strategy Buy in may and go away
According to Mandarine Gestion, current valuation levels in the banking sector constitute opportunities rarely seen over a medium-term horizon. However, over the short term, investors are preferring to focus on two factors while at the same time exaggerating in our view (...)
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April 2011
Note Trying to assess the Cajas’ mess
The real estate bubble was huge and now Spanish banks are in a mess. Two questions come to mind: why does this comes into the spotlight so late ? what is the exact size of the mess and what is the possible impact of a full stress scenario on financial markets (...)
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April 2011
Opinion The monetary policy crapshoot
One of the key factors driving the relentless move up in equity markets has been the massive surge in liquidity supplied by central banks. One of the biggest risks in the second quarter is whether the liquidity tailwind turns into a headwind for (...)
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March 2011
Note The EMF has been created, long live the EMF!
Philip Hall and Adrian Paturle give an update on the operation of ESM: European leaders have largely been inspired by the IMF...
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February 2011
Strategy What would it take to solve the eurozone crisis?
Last year’s key call was to spot the indebtedness of peripheral European governments and go underweight quickly. Those who did prospered all year, but in January of this year they got a nasty shock as peripheral spreads came rattling in and peripheral financials (...)
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January 2011
News Sarkozy wants major changes in commodities markets !
Sarkozy also told speculators to be prepared for big losses if they bet against the euro
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January 2011
Note The frantic flight to liquidity and solvency
Some markets have been exhibiting dysfunctions for nearly 4 years. The flight to liquidity and compliance with solvency requirements of banks and states with financial issues, have been - and still is - only ensured by non-conventional financing provisions and emergency (...)
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January 2011
News Investors welcome the issuance of European Union’s bonds for the bailout of Ireland
The market welcomes, on wednesday, the first wave of bonds issued by the European Union to raise funds for Ireland.
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January 2011
News The euro currency area has only a one-in-five chance of surviving in its current form
The euro currency area has only a one-in-five chance of surviving in its current form over the next 10 years because of competitive imbalances between its members, a leading British think tank said on Friday.
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January 2011
Financial crisis Eurozone: 3 future scenarios
This is the first part of a series consisting of 3 articles covering the perspectives of the Eurozone… In order to get out of the crisis, three scenarios are conceivable. The most probable of them is unfortunately the one where one or several countries exit the economic and (...)
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November 2010
Strategy What strategy on Irish bonds and bonds of so-called peripheral countries?
According to Natixis AM, the bailout plan should support the short end of curve and strengthen Irish bonds with residual maturity of 1 to 3 years, which offer attractive carry at yields of around 4.80%.
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News
Greece: a possible lengthening of debt repayment -
November 2010
