August 2011
Opinion Equity markets: two mistakes to avoid.
The negative news flow coming from financial markets does not mean we should give up. This article provides two small pieces of advice or rather two mistakes that must be avoided or that must never be repeated.
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August 2011
Strategy Investing during market turmoil
The idea that considers equity investing as long term has simply become absurd nowadays and has been so during the last 10 years. Let us be reassured. Opportunities will still be around. The only real question nowadays is how to allocate between real assets and financial (...)
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August 2011
Opinion Greece rescue - Behind the scenes
Debt rescheduling, monetary policies questioning and EFSF bond purchases in the secondary market. These are the key steps of a plan that should not significantly affect banks’ net income but rather spread economic losses over (...)
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July 2011
Note Financial markets and self-fulfilling prophecies
This phenomenon is equivalent to the change from a brutal economic and financial equilibrium to another, not because the fundamentals of the macroeconomic environment would justify it, but because there was a change for good or bad reasons of market (...)
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July 2011
Opinion Reviewing the bank stress tests – July 2011
As was seen during the stress tests carried out in July 2010, the latest ones published by the European Banking Authority on the 15th of July 2011 do not include a proper measure of market systemic risk. This hinders their (...)
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July 2011
Note Euro zone bailout plans: origin and utilization
Back on bailout plans granted to countries in the Euro zone encountering severe fiscal deficits since May 2010. How are tens of billions Euros raised, what are they for, and mainly, are those amounts enough to re-establish the public finances and stabilize those countries (...)
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July 2011
Opinion Euro-dollar outlook
So many reasons to sell the Euro against the dollar. Nevertheless we can expect a fall of the euro in the second half of 2011. The dollar should continue to remain for now a safe haven despite the monstrous imbalances in the US economy and because of the real risk of (...)
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June 2011
Opinion Complex and useless finance is still there
While complex finance should be preferred to improve risk modeling, it continues, in times of market stress, to help designing unmanageable and useless complex structured products
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June 2011
Note 10 proposals to rebuild finance and monetary macroeconomics
Rethink monetary policy and its objectives, reform our accounting and prudential environment, review the return on equity standards, regulate the prices of certain assets...
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May 2011
Opinion Mathematical models in finance and embedded risk underestimation
The statistical assumption of normal (log-normal) distribution of stock returns (prices) is not that strong and tail events’ occurrence is largely undervalued. Nevertheless, this modeling framework has been widely used for strong (...)
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March 2011
Strategy Financial markets: hedging against new structural risks and stagflation
There are at least four new structural risks to consider: regulation, Middle East, euro zone’s crisis, and again the idea of a change in growth model of emerging countries.
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March 2011
Regulation Basel III: regulators seem to ignore market failures
The changes in our regulatory framework (BASEL 3) and the widespread use of inappropriate IFRS rules will not solve the imbalances of the international financial and economic system
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February 2011
Regulation Reconciling bank processing and prudential regulation
The introduction of new liquidity ratios could undermine banking core business
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January 2011
Note The frantic flight to liquidity and solvency
Some markets have been exhibiting dysfunctions for nearly 4 years. The flight to liquidity and compliance with solvency requirements of banks and states with financial issues, have been - and still is - only ensured by non-conventional financing provisions and emergency (...)
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January 2011
Opinion Long-term rates rise....but it is not yet a bond crash
The recent sharp rise in long-term rates in Europe relies on a risk pooling across peripheral countries and the entire euro zone. But we cannot yet talk about bond crash.
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