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Strategy Crisis - what crisis?
While the markets feel risky, the perceived risk has not been matched by a spike in market levels of implied volatility
Opinion Greece: awaiting the inevitable
The credit default swap market is pricing in a 65% probability of a default within the next five years.
Opinion What is “risk free” ?
Would it be conceivable that top-quality corporates can take over the baton of being the “risk free” investment of choice? Nestle default protection is cheaper than German sovereign protection and Wal-Mart default protection is cheaper than United States sovereign (...)
Strategy What would it take to solve the eurozone crisis?
Last year’s key call was to spot the indebtedness of peripheral European governments and go underweight quickly. Those who did prospered all year, but in January of this year they got a nasty shock as peripheral spreads came rattling in and peripheral financials (...)
Pedagogy Credit Default Swaps (CDS).
Politicians have, in general, a very rough knowledge on financial products, especially credit derivatives. In some cases, this may be a gap. Indeed, the icelandic prime minister is now aware of it...
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